Did Bloggers Win Primary For Kerry

From The Democratic Daily--see original post for links:

http://blog.thedemocraticdaily.com/?p=3269

Kos seems to think so. Back in March Kos was responding to criticism from TNR that the efforts of bloggers to win elections haven’t been very successful, with his site including a link to this post today. Kos responded with examples of what he saw as victories for bloggers: “Heck, call Kerry and ask him what bloggers can do. Because if it wasn’t for his own little private stash, Dean would’ve won the nomination. And it’s obvious Kerry understands this now.”

We were certainly active in supporting Kerry over Dean in the blogosphere but I would credit Kerry’s ground game in Ohio more than our work. Still, I appreciate the compliment from Kos.

Money or bloggers? That confuses me.

I obviously cannot speak for Kos, but as he isn't around to answer I took this as a somewhat derogatory way to refer to the group of Kerry bloggers.

After seeing the comments here and rereading, Mass is probably right.

I think he is speaking of bloggers and the stash as two separate things.

Kerry people tend to take instruction and work for the greater good, basically they understand the value of a targeted message. That's one reason Kerry's ground game worked and I think internet organizing helped that, whether through the blog or other email lists. The Vets, Firefighters and the Iowa party organization on the ground was the other key reason. After Iowa though, I do think there was a period in time where lots of people were brought into the campaign quickly and smoothly through the blog and forum. Then, of course, there was another period of time when it turned into a free for all, but that's something else again.

There were many factors which led to Kerry's win. The blog did contribute but I would hardly say it was the deciding factor.

During the months prior to the Iowa caucus I did get email from people on the ground in Iowa thanking me for my help such as in getting out information, but most likely these people would have also done just fine without me. I also got some emails from people saying I was instrumental in changing their minds, but I don't know if any were from Iowa or participated in the caucuses. Similarly others were active on line and also made a difference.

It is somewhat simplistic to say one thing led to Kerry's win. Kerry's personal campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire brought in lots of support. Dean made critical mistakes towards the end. Many factors contributed, but if I had to pick one factor I would certainly pick the ground game over the blog. Still, I'm glad Kos recognized the contributions of the Kerry bloggers.

In listing all the factors I guess I should include the debates. I'm not sure how important they were (as Kerry didn't surge until after they were over) but I did think he came off the best in the debates.

I didn't say bloggers were the deciding factor. I said that I thought the deciding factor was that Kerry supporters have a different personality and are willing to take instruction in order to target the message. Supporters are a key part of any ground game, no matter where those supporters come from. Of course getting much of the Iowa Democrats in his corner was all him and his campaign. But if they had then run all around with a scattered message that didn't respect local values, it wouldn't have worked. A lot of people did get connected to go to Iowa through the blog; and other veterans and firefighter email lists that had nothing to do with the blog. Knowing how to work the Iowa caucuses was key and Christie Vilsack was essential for that, in fact if there had to be one key thing, I'd say it was her. But I think extrapolating her knowledge into boots on the ground into people at the caucus was key and that came from a consistent message that the Dean people just didn't have.

Dean got some high profile endorsements from Gore and unions nationally, but Kerry did get many of the more important endorsements from prominent Iowas who could really help him win, such as Christie Vilsack. I would definately add the endorsements high on the list of other factors I mentioned above.

but it's impossible to quantify how much help they contributed towards the nomination. But I'm surprised Kos even realizes Kerry had any bloggers of his own. The cry from Kos since before the primaries, and pretty much unabated since, has been "no one really likes Kerry."

If Kos is giving (long overdue) recognition now, great. But does that mean he's now admitting that there are some people out there who are dedicated to Kerry? That's a change.

that successful presidents have mastered the dominant media of their times--be it print, radio, tv, or now internet. He credits Dean and Kerry as two who successfully used the internet, especially for fundraising. He said it's changed politics for good, and that Hillary's large warchest means nothing if other candidates can raise tons of money overnight from small donors. I think JK learned this lesson and has continued to use it on behalf of other candidates--and is way ahead of many of the others. Is Feingold doing this? Edwards? I don't see it, if they are.

The article:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13006799/site/newsweek/

I think he's missing another piece. Kerry is using the communication part in a different way than anyone else is.

Several people here mentioned that he has been more successful in his use of DKos, Democratic Daily and other blogs because he seems to understand that it is a 2 way media and that people right now want leaders to suggest things they can do. Part of the reason he may be better on this is that he is at heart an activist. He was successful leading people in this way without the internet and he seems comfortable in that role. (Speaking of which, I need to go back to the Couter thread and look at the TV schedule to see who to write protest email to. I don't think it's a co-incidence that this is the 2nd time he has targeted extreme wrongs of the media - treating Coulter as if she is a reasonable person and repeating the comments months ago that OBL sounds like Democrats.)

I do think Warner may be the real favorite of the media. His 2 1/2 year out NYT magazine cover article reminds me that that is about the timing of when they profiled Clinton. (In contrast, Kerry was covbered for the first time in September or October, 2004. So much for being the media candidate.)

If "uccessful presidents have mastered the dominant media of their times" it is not clear whether this will apply to the blogosphere. Nobody really knows how important it will be in 2008. Even if not the most important media, it will have more impact in 2008 than 2004. In light of the question of how important it will be, I think most politicians will see it necesasry to consider it to be safe.

It looks like most candidates are considering the blogosphere--except Hillary. Warner is getting the most publicity recently (between Armstrong's support and Yearly Kos). Feingold has been courting bloggers. Edwards opened a blog not long ago.

I just entered a post at The Democratic Daily on Warner and the Yearly Kos people:

http://blog.thedemocraticdaily.com/?p=3275

That only got involved in politics on the internet because of Kerry.

Sheesh - I barely touched the computer before the Kerry forum. Then I would sit there and read what everyone wrote until I was bursting and had to join.

Now the election of '08 - that is going to be interesting, and the bloggers will have a major part in nominating Kerry.

Kerry won over Dean because he is more "Presidential" than Dean.
I like Dean right where he is right now.

I just don't think it is simply a case that Kerry won because of having a stash of bloggers backing him.

As for being Presidential, that was a factor. Early on Dean got himself positioned so that if you opposed Bush Dean was seen as the obvious candidate. I think many people who really hadn't firmly decided on a candidate just came up with Dean's name when asked by pollsters. Then when it became time to vote they looked more closely at who they really wanted to be President. Plus, Kerry did use a line like "Send a President to Washington, not just a message."

No wonder why they elevated the terror threat 2 days later.

Kerry was brilliant.
The bloggers may have had an impact, but Kerry was a great candidate (and screw all those who say he wasn't) And besides - wasn't it Dean that had the most backing on the internet? Joe Trippi was all over the place talking about it, even after Dean lost out to Kerry.

that a very key reason he won was who he was, what he said and what he had done in his life.

I realise that without a good ground team in Iowa, people wouldn't have known him for who he is. The same can be said for all the early bloggers - they helped those looking for information on the web learn what was special about Kerry.

I think Kos doesn't get this - Trippi made Dean the internet anti-war candidate. This gave him an early lead, but it also took him away from who he really was. This can't work long term. Kos doesn't get that the bloggers could get someone attention, but once they get the attention they need to impress people on a consistent basis. He speaks as if bloggers or money could make ANY candidate win. If Dean walked on water as Kos thinks, Kerry could have wasted a lot of money and would still have been second (or more) best.

of 2003.

As I understand it, kos thinks that Dean's bloggers were powerful enough that they would have won the elections for him if Kerry had not "cheated" by taking its mortgage.

It is clear that it is Kerry's campaigning on the ground and the comparison between him and Dean that made him win, but kos would never recognize that.

It looks like he may be listing two different things--the bloggers and his private stash.

I didn't read it that way at first, but on second look, it does sound that way. That's much more Markos' style too. He's got too much at stake to give an ounce of credit to any other bloggers anywhere. If he gave credit to Kerry primary bloggers, everybody might start running to Dick & Pete for expert advise and Markos can't have that. lol.

own private stash...big time.

bloggers (although I also agree with DD - I think Kos has gotten into HIS OWN private little stash of another kind). Of course if this is what he means, he's also admitting that he (as a blogger) was totally ineffective for his man, Howard Dean.

While I don't doubt that bloggers made an impact in '04 and will undoubtedly make an even greater impact in the years to come, I think that Kos is out of touch with reality if he thinks that this was the main reason for Kerry's primary victory in '04. I just don't think that many voters were familiar enough with the medium for it to make that big of a difference - sometime down the road, maybe. In 2004, no way.

Kos' formula seems to take into account a blog following and money, but little else.

to be a factor - which is beyond crazy.

I think that Rassmann had more impact on Iowa than on the praise lavished on Dean on the Kos blog. Kerry's team did a great job in re-uniting them at an unrelated event. Their emotions and the story were perfect and it was real. I watched the footage as it appeared on the cable shows because it was genuinely inspirational.

.