http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/whispers/articles/060626/26whisplead.htmThree for 2008: Hill, Russ, and Mark
We know, we know, the race for the White House is a long way off. But there is already a growing buzz on the Democratic side that there are just three worthy candidates likely to end up in a pitted primary battle starting in 19 months: New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold, and one-term ex-Virginia Gov. Mark Warner. Here's the 411 from a top Democratic maven: Clinton is the, well, elephant in the room, the "uber" candidate; Warner gets the mainstream moderates; and progressive Feingold is attractive to the activists who seem to be taking over the party.
Kos, now the big celebrity that he is, is diplomatic and mentions everyone else:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/6/19/14253/6791Seems about spot-on for the early call. Can Clark, Edwards, Richardson, and/or Kerry muscle into this group of "relevant" candidates? That'll be the big question. None of the other contenders will have much oxygen (i.e. buzz and money) to work with (Dodd, Daschle, Bayh, Biden, and Vilsack).
I comment on this mini-thread here:
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2006/6/19/14253/6791/130#c130Chris Bowers at MyDD chimes in:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/6/19/14145/8824I am not going to disagree that some candidates who are running seem highly unlikely to gain real traction. Bayh, Biden, Daschle, Dodd and Vilsack all seem to be trying to compete with Hillary Clinton on the same terms as Hillary Clinton. That is not going to work. You simply are not going to defeat Clinton by trying to be Clinton through soaking up party support and large donors (see my post on this from last year). In a different vein, I also have a very difficult time seeing Kerry as viable again. He has done virtually everything right over the last eight or nine months, and yet he still does not seem to be gaining any traction.
However, I can still see paths for people other than Clinton, Warner and Feingold. Edwards is the most obvious--he is actually leading the only Iowa poll and has the highest favorable ratings of anyone making serious noise about running (both offline and online). This is not even to mention that unlike just about everyone else, he has a real narrative--two Americas--through which he can articulate his political philosophy and his policies.
Also, with a new western state caucus before New Hampshire, rising Latino political power, and connections running deep in the party throughout the country, I think it would be foolish to discount Bill Richardson. General Clark probably still has a chance too.
This is not even to mention two Democrats who are not currently making much noise about running: Barack Obama and Al Gore. In the netroots poll and Dailykos fantasy polls, Gore soars about the other twelve contenders. When it comes to the junior Senator from Illinois, Obama is the most popular Democrat in the nation by far, even more popular than McCain. A rock star like that can never be overlooked.
Look, we're all trying here, but one cannot deny that the "netroots" are largely backing other candidates. We're in the minority. How can we change this? I really want Kerry for prez, but I don't see how we get from A (wanting him to be prez) to B (him actually BEING prez). I can't come up with a scenario, where he either gets the nomination or wins the general. All the forces that be (including the netroots) seem poised against him. I'm not being all negative here -- I'm just looking around, and in 2006 this is what I'm seeing.