The Cuban Assumption.

I've noticed that the assumption almost everybody makes about Cuba is that the whole system is held together JUST by Fidel Castro, and that it would all end overnight, and the Batista Successors would be swept into power, merely by his death.

Well, I don't think so.

Castro is a cagey man. He has thought about all angles of this problem in advance, and really believe he has a plan for his own succession that is likely to work, at least in the short term. Cuba has many problems that stem from their economic isolation from US markets and the depressed value of their #1 crop, sugar, but I also know that there are likely exploitable offshore oil reserves, and that Cuba has a partner in Venezuela who can provide the capital and oil processing expertise that could provide real stability.

No, if the Cuban Exiles really want to evacuate Miami for Havana any time soon, only a military campaign is going to make that possible.

And there are enough people in Cuba who are happy with the current system that they cannot possibly justify repeating the same bad assumption made before the Bay of Pigs invasion, that the people would rise up against the government. It will take some hard fighting and real casualties to take Cuba.

And I wonder if the Cuban Exiles assume that the USA will do the fighting for them?

...but from what I remember, there are basically two groups of Cubans - the Batista Cubans, who tend to be conservative, vote republican, and hate Castro, and the Carter Cubans who came over later, are often stereotyped as criminals (ala Scarface and Castro emptying his prisons when Carter was President), and otherwise run the entire gambit. I believe it is the former group that is gung ho about deposing Cuba, since many of them were forced to abandon their family fortune when they fled. Many of them would volunteer to go take Cuba back if they thought they'd survive it.

other enclaves of Cuban-Americans expect to regain the land and buildings they or their parents had in Batista days. Even people who never owned land or buildings are going to claim 'their rights'. Many in Miami expect to own in both Cuba and the U.S., commute, then be buried in Cuba when their time comes - post-Castro.

I hope Castro figured that one out.

They will simply not be "given" anything by the successors to Fidel Castro. Isn't gonna happen. They will have to take it by force if they want it that badly.

arrangement for compensation long ago, and were paid at that time. Offers have been made to those who fled to America back then and over the years, only to be refused.

It was mentioned and noted in private talks with Kennedy aide, Richard Godwin and Che Guevara, as well.

Here are a few snippets on the subject:

However, relations rapidly deteriorated when the new Cuban government passed the first Agrarian Reform Law to begin the expropriation of large-scale (largely American-owned) land holdings on May 17, 1959. The compensation offered (based on 20-year bonds at 4.5% interest for the tax-declared value) was seen as inadequate, and was rejected by American interests.
(snip)

http://www.answers.com/topic/united-states-embargo-against-cuba

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~snip~
In July 1960, the Cuban government issued Law No. 851, which authorized the nationalization of U.S. properties. This law included a compensation mechanism in accordance with what was and still is international practice in the case of nationalization, which are "lump sum" agreements. The U.S. government assumed the responsibility to its citizens whose properties were nationalized, and on their behalf established a direct compensation mechanism with the Cuban government. The formula established in the law foresaw the creation of a fund out of which, in the course of several years, the compensations would be paid, and it was based on the existence of stable trade relations between the two countries, in particular the sale of sugar, which was Cuba's main export item and the one which best characterized the history of trade relations between the two countries.

The U.S. government refused to accept that formula, and even to discuss with Cuba the terms for compensation, even though the Cuban government stated on several occasions its willingness to negotiate even the terms laid down in Law No. 851. That is the historical truth that the U.S. government is trying to cover up today. Its purpose was solely and exclusively to break all economic and commercial ties with Cuba, and every link between the two peoples, not to achieve suitable compensation for the former property owners, to whom it had that responsibility.

THE U.S. SUPREME COURT RECOGNIZED THE LEGITIMACY OF CUBAN NATIONALIZATION
What happened to the rest of the property owners from other countries who were subject to nationalization?

Well, their respective governments looked for solutions. Each one sat down at some moment to negotiate mutually acceptable formulas with Cuba. In this way, for example, agreements were signed with Canada, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Spain and France. In every case, except one, full compensation has been paid.
(snip/...)

http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/43b/107.html

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Concerning some people still living in Cuba, whose property was nationalized:
~snip~
SINCE 1959

The revolution of 1959, headed by Fidel Castro, was sympathetically received by many members of the Jewish community, especially the leftists and the students. Indeed, the revolution brought about, for the first time in the history of Cuban Jewry, the appointment of a Jew as minister (the engineer Enrique Oltuski Osachki), and neither during the revolution nor after its success were any anti-Semitic attitudes adopted. But, by effecting profound changes in the social and economic structure of the country, affecting the economy of the majority of Cuban Jews.

Thousands of Jews decided to emigrate, and their exit was in many cases facilitated by the fact that the authorities considered them "repatriates" returning to Israel, whereas the majority found refuge in the United States.

Out of a Jewish population of about 10,000-12,000 before the revolution, in 1965 there were about 2,500 Jews and in 1970 only about 1,500, approximately, 1,000 in the capital and the rest in the cities of the interior (particularly Santiago de Cuba and the province of Oriente). An estimate from the end of 1963, which still counted about 3,000 Jews in Cuba, also indicated that only about 30% of the breadwinners among them work and earn a livelihood while 70% support themselves by reparations for nationalized property paid in installments or by selling their property......
(snip/...)

http://www.chcuba.org/english/community/history.htm

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Concerning an interview with Fidel Castro which appeared on ABC News:

~snip~
Howard's Castro interview aired on May 10, 1963. The White House received a transcript of the program more than a week in advance and considered trying to block its broadcast. "Public airing in the United States of this interview would strengthen the arguments of 'peace' groups, 'liberal' thinkers, Commies, fellow travelers, and opportunistic political opponents of present United States policy," as well as provide Castro with a wide audience for his "reasonable line," warned a May 3 analysis provided to Bundy. On the other hand, "denial of ABC 'rights' to report the news would raise the question of 'managed' news."

Among the issues the Cuban premier addressed was the potential for better relations with Washington. He stated that a rapprochement was "possible the United States government wishes it. In that case we would be agreed to seek and find the basis" for normalizing relations. A few months later, in a cover story, "Castro's Overture," in the liberal journal War/Peace Report, Howard wrote that in eight hours of private conversations Castro had been "even more emphatic about his desire for negotiations with the United States":

In our conversations he made it quite clear that he was ready to discuss: the Soviet personnel and military hardware on Cuban soil; compensation for expropriated American lands and investments; the question of Cuba as a base for Communist subversion throughout the Hemisphere.
(snip/...)

http://www.cigaraficionado.com/Cigar/CA_Archives/CA_Show_Article/0,2322,320,00.html

In this case it would be joyous Cubans strewing the streets with flowers welcoming "democracy" and WalMart to their country.

Sure they will.

...will likely be defeated. And of course, without our explicit cooperation, where can they possibly stage such an amphibious assault? It's Key West or nowhere as far as I can determine.

the usa military will do the fighting for them! and...given bush's track record, he loves war, he loves invasions of weak and weakened countries...hell, we might just see the (what were they called, "rough riders?" - "freedom riders?"-- you know, back in 1898 the roosevel riders up on san juan hill and el viso?

never underestimate the bushes love for war and blood.

Not all Cubans in the US are repugs. Very few want to go to Cuba to live. A stark minority are the rabid extremists who support Posada and his ilk. Many are liberal Dems.


FYI,

charts from opensecrets.org

But I dated a woman who was the daughter of one of Batista's Lieutenants, and know for fact that there is a sizable group who intend to go there and take it all back. Not all. Not even most, but enough to make this a political minefield.

1960s.

those cubans who are not republicans are very hard to locate. i know a few. i am one of them. but our numbers are nothing, and our voices are siled by the mean stream media. it seems that the republicans and the chusma (populace) have the say so and they say boooooooosh will free cuba from fidel. their emotional buttons are pushed very easily. they are ready to judge and condemn like any good ole right winger and christian coalitioner and they don't seem to be able to make use of their thinking abilities.

happen is fragmented as usually happens.

My knowledge is So Florida based. I am going to assume that those who did not stay in FL or were settled in NJ, Chicago, NY. or even TN by church groups or for whatever reasons might have not got locked in to a group think as happened in So FL.

I believe the SO FL Cuban-Americans are a concern for the post-Castro period. These are the people who have managed to keep this country hostage in policy and law and it is solidly based on Castro hate.

There is somewhat of a culture of delusion and dreaming going on there. Though most came with virtually nothing, not all of them had everything when they lived in Cuba. Many who had little have 'exaggerated' what they had. Many who had plenty moved the movable out before the final takeover. And a lot of that went to Venezuela and Europe. So this is largely a land and builing isssue.

After 47 years, there are new stratas of wealth of Cuban Americans in Miami.

Those who came over and those born there.

THose from the banking ownership, legal, industrial levels at the top, the university, civic, political, successful retail, real estate levels in the middle, and the now-retired and always retired levels at the bottom.

There are many who are stuck on Castro. Others who were born there are tolerantly influenced by knowledge and practicality when outside their homes and are not so Castro obsessed.

But, for many, there are those who dream about having businesses in both countries, homes in both countries, hourly or more shuttles to move back and forth to all airports in Cuba, and for some, reestablishing the way of life that existed there which involves a lot more wealth than exists in Cuba now. Some others appear ready to 're-establish' the same type of corruption that caused the revolution in the first place.

For 47 years, many have bragged about getting their lands and their estates back. Let's see how many are left who will push each other and their children for peaceful settlements. Let's see how those who bragged about their non-existent land will settle their claims.

No immigrant group in this country has the power they have had for 47 years to get each revolving Congress and WH to do their bidding. Bidding that makes the U.S. stand out as crazy on the world stage, but bidding that got the U.S. to get other countries go along with it for decades until they wised up.

The question is who will be in power when the pressure is there from the Cuban-Americans who are left to regain what they think they are owed and how far will whoever is in Congress and the WH go to make the impassioned Cuban-Americans dreams come true?

Other groups who have migrated to the U.S. integrate. If they have disputes in the old country they settle them privately = they don't have entire branches of the U.S. government working for them or influencing elections.

So, if you can control the U.S. government for 47 years, why not expect them to help them get what they want with the passing of the 47 year object of hate and delusion? Including fighting a war for them?

and really know nothing of Cuba, but an admiration for the beauty of the country and culture.

Given that I know nuthin', I DAMNED WELL KNEW bush's cruel policy was ass-fucking backwards. Who gives a shit if families send some money? I figure we need to support the people as best we can.

Being a native Californian, I have always felt culturally closer to Mexicans than Connecticutians (WTF do ya call em?). Nothing against Connecticut, I just feel no connection. I feel close to Mexico, the Pacific Rim cultures of Asia and Polynesia.

I guess I am out of it... I cannot 'get' why we don't open travel to Cuba. What's to lose? Lots to gain for everyone.

Why, the fog of lies that make even good liberals think Cuba is Saddam's Iraq.

They are afraid of humanizing the people of Cuba.

And I ended up with a real fondness for Mexican culture. Real good people, the Mexicans are.

EDIT: That is why I've been using the Mexican flag as my signature ever since a large number of DUers were outraged that the Mexicans would dare wave their flags during the immigration rallies. It was my wave of showing solidarity with them.

It may be weeks before we know of his death, unless he collapses in front of a live audience.

But when word gets out, Miami will party for a week. Even non-Cubans will join in because we love to party down here. If there is one thing we do right down here, it's partying. No other city comes close.

I will post the photos when it happens. After I recover from my hangover.

There will also be Miami Cuban boat owners who will travel to Cuba in an attempt to bring family members over or to just simply see what is happening in Cuba. I imagine the Cuban military might be prepared for this, but who knows what will be happening in Cuba at the time.

When Castro dies, his brother, Raul Castro, will most likely take over. Raul does not have nearly the charisma that Fidel has, so it will be interesting to see how long the Cubans accept him as their leader.

There will most likely be internal fighting in Havana as they sort this leadership issue out. It will be a power struggle. The Miami Cubans are going to be left out of this power struggle because they have made no attempt to establish relations with the Cubans since 1959.

The Miami Cubans may have fantasies of going back to reclaim their land. The U.S. corporations may have fantasies of establishing Starbucks, Burger Kings and McDonald's on every corner. The Cuban people may have fantasies of suddenly living in a real democracy.

But those are all just fantasies.

The truth is, it will be more of the same as it is now. There is not going to be any drastic transitions in the beginning. The embargo will continue because Fidelismo will still be alive.

Isn't that what this thread is about?

be head of the armed services and some 30 or 40 year old will become the head of the party.

That's my guess.

But right now, it's anybody's guess.

Is that they were all Batista supporters. The truth is, most of the Cubans in Miami supported the revolution. They loathed Batista.

I know a guy who used to plant bombs in bridges in Havana in order to overthrow Batista. His name is Amauri and he is an old friend of my mom's. A hell of a nice guy. He considers me one of his best friends.

Like an idiot, he voted for Bush. Twice. I talked to him one night over drinks and told him the truth about Bush. Now he regrets voting for Bush.

But he doesn't regret fighting Batista. He talks about it everytime I see him. And he's provided me with newspaper clippings to back up his claims.

The University of Miami even has records of him. I will write about him someday. Unfortunately, it will probably be his obituary. He is an 82-year-old widower who just lost his wife.

The real Batista supporters were in the minority and they arrived in Miami in 1959. They were the true elite. But like the elite in any country, they were an extremely small percentage.

Most of the early exiles arrived in the early-to-mid 1960s and were middle-class and working-class Cubans. Like my friend Amauri who used to publish a newspaper called El Obrero. The Laborer.

They had supported Castro in the beginning, but they left when Castro aligned himself with the Soviet Union in 1961.

You see, in the beginning, Castro was a nationalist who vowed to restore the constitution. He did no such thing.

Most of the Cubans who came over in the 60's were angry because in many ways, ol Fidel betrayed the Revolution in almost romantic terms. It was a classic nationalist becoming as bad as the guy he overthrew.

Miami is the only city in the world with its own foreign policy. It does not matter what job you are running for, even dogcatcher, you had damn well better be the candidate who hates Castro the most :hide:

But there is always room for improvement.

should read Richard Gott's book Cuba: A New History.

I believe that his discussion about how Castro is no longer an integreal part of the daily operation of Cuba and that many of the people running Cuba are in their thirties and younger begins at page 317, which is a content restricted google book search page, unfortunately (http://books.google.com/books?vid=ISBN0300111142&id=aVq0qOnLFusC&pg=PA317&lpg=PA317&vq=twenty-first+century&dq=richard+gott+a+new+history+of+cuba&sig=1FnVnQlM2KK3fa2VR1xHSBKSnXk), so you're going to have to buy the book here -- only three copies left (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0300111142/sr=8-1/qid=1150038168/ref=sr_1_1/103-0913486-6351016?%5Fencoding=UTF8) or visit your library.