Democrats Taking Advantage Of Displeasure With GOP, Raising Big $$$

JABBS

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Mon Jun-12-06 10:59 AM
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Democrats Taking Advantage Of Displeasure With GOP, Raising Big $$$

<snip>

The easier time Democrats have had raising money in 2006 -- timed, not coincidentally, with a slowdown in Republican fund-raising -- is being seen by some analysts as a sign that the political tides have changed.

In other words, some upset Americans -- who normally stay on the sidelines -- are putting their money where their mouths are and backing Democrats. Other upset Americans -- who normally would support Republicans -- are staying on the sidelines.

Amy Walter, a nonpartisan political handicapper for the Cook Political Report, agreed that Republicans' problems appear to be at the grass roots. "This mirrors the problems Republicans could have with turnout," she said.

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deaniac21

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Mon Jun-12-06 11:29 AM
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1. Get ready for the L A N D S L I D E !!

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Bandit

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Mon Jun-12-06 11:40 AM
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2. Don't count your chicks before they hatch

Over 90% of incumbents retain office....Republicans are bad everywhere but in your home precinct your guy is good..:shrug: Remember all politics are local.

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JABBS

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Mon Jun-12-06 11:48 AM
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3. yes, but

Six months ago, the talk was that the Dems would have to win 19 of 24 seats, and that only 24 were in play. Now, the analysts are talking about 40-60 seats being in play.

I think a lot of analysts are shifting their predictions on voter turnout. If the Dem vote swells and/or the GOP voter pool shrinks (stays home or switches parties), then the House could go Democratic.

The Senate remains a big longshot. Dems have to pick up 6. At best, I think they pick up 3 or 4 (Santorum, Burns, Frist's open seat and maybe DeWine or Chafee). Hard to see any way the Dems can do better than that.

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deaniac21

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Mon Jun-12-06 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #2

4. Look at 1994. We can and will do the same!

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JABBS

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Mon Jun-12-06 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #4

5. actually

that would be difficult to repeat. Redistricting by GOP dictates that. 1994 saw a 65-seat change, suggesting 100 or so seats at least had to be "in play."

If 40 or 50 seats are in play this year -- and that's not clear yet, then the Dems should be able to pick up 15. No guarantee, but plausible.

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