Increase in Consumer Prices Raises Fears of Inflation
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/jan-june06/inflation_06-14.htmlA Labor Department report released Wednesday shows an increase in consumer prices due to significant raises in energy and gas costs, prompting concerns that the Federal Reserve will again raise interest rates to fight inflation.
RAY SUAREZ: The government's latest report showed inflation is continuing to rise in consumer prices, which have now grown by just over 4 percent within the past year. Energy and gas prices were a significant part of the increase. So how are businesses coping with rising prices? And what do those price rises mean for the wider economy? (with Alice Rivlin, a former vice-chair of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, she's now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, where she follows U.S. fiscal and monetary policy)
Inflation not as high as the 1970s
RAY SUAREZ: Well, Alice Rivlin, from what you just heard from these businessmen, how does this extrapolate out to the wider economy?
ALICE RIVLIN: Well, I think we've heard some of the worst from these two gentlemen because their businesses are fuel-intensive, especially trucking. And if the oil price stays where it is or continues to rise, which is not unlikely, these kinds of stories are going to be there.
But the rest of the economy is not totally dependent on energy. We are less dependent on energy, actually, than we were in the 1970s, BECAUSE WE DON'T MAKE AS MUCH STUFF. Much more of our economy is service-oriented and NOT SUCH A BIG CONSUMER OF ENERGY.
TRANSLATION: All those outsourced manufacturing jobs = less energy used to make things we don't make in the U.S anymore more = more no-benefits/service/tempslave/unemployed workers who can't afford gas and depend on the low prices of cheap outsourced manufacturing products.
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RAY SUAREZ: But what about Mr. Zimmerman's example of not being able to on pass his rising cost to his customers because of the competitive environment? Are there a lot of manufacturers that at some point are going to have to raise their prices, and we just haven't seen that yet, that it will eventually send its shockwave through the economy?
ALICE RIVLIN: There are some, and that will likely happen. But PRODUCTIVITY increases have been very high, especially in manufacturing. THEY'RE GETTING MORE OUT OF THE INPUTS THAT THEY PUT IN AND OUT OF THEIR WORKERS. And it is isn't likely that we're going to have great inflation in manufacturing or, I think, anywhere else.
TRANSLATION: All those outsourced manufacturing jobs = less energy used to make things we don't make in the U.S anymore more = more no-benefits/service/tempslave/unemployed workers who can't afford gas and depend on the low prices of cheap outsourced manufacturing products.
RAY SUAREZ: Like tumbling dominoes, Mr. Quinn's customers, who have taken his fuel surcharge, are probably charging their customers more, but they're doing this in an atmosphere of slowly growing wages. Are these pains ones that will be felt at the household level, as well?
ALICE RIVLIN: To some extent, yes, but, except for food and energy, prices have been going up very slowly, accelerating a little bit in the last few months, but BASICALLY AT A PRETTY REASONABLE RATE.
TRANSLATION: At any less "reasonable" as rate, the American people might actually get really PISSED OFF.