(my guesstimate: Crisis!)
http://www.fourthturning.com/"An Unraveling cannot lead back to an Awakening, or forward to a High, without a Crisis in berween." - The Fourth Turning (1997)
"In the Unraveling, the removal of each civic layer brought demands for the removal of more layers;in the Crisis era , each new exercise of civic authority creates a perceived need for the adding of layers." TFT
"This is the critical threshold: People either coalesce as a nation and culture-or rip hopelessly and permanently apart." TFT
A Morphology of Crisis Eras (note: according to TFT authors the Unraveling phase mid/late 1990's and Crisis/catalyst event(s) would happen by 2005)
Fourth Turnings have provided great pivot points of the Anglo-American legacy. Dating back to the fifteenth century, there have been six. Each produced its own Crisis-from the similarities of the eras, a morphology can be constructed:
-A Crisis begins with a catalyst-a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces
a sudden shift in mood.
-Once catalyzed, a society achieves a regeneracy-a new counterentropy that reunifies and reenergizes civic life.
-The regenerated society propels toward a climax-a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and birth of the new.
-The climax culminates in a resolution-a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes a new order.
Crisis morphology occurs over the span of one turning, which (except for the U.S. Civil War) means around fifteen to twenty-five years between the catalyst and the resolution. (The Fourth Turning)