NORTH KOREA'S DANGEROUS GAME - There's method in the missile madness

By Bruce Klingner

North Korea appears to be in the final stages of preparations for the test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, although Pyongyang could still stop short of an actual launch. Media leaks of increasingly detailed intelligence information and warnings by senior US, South Korean and Japanese government officials since mid-June have indicated far greater concern than previous false warnings of missile and nuclear test preparations.

Washington and Tokyo are expected to respond firmly to a launch but will be constrained in available options. South Korea will likely postpone short-term economic benefits to Pyongyang but retain its engagement policy.

Intelligence leaks indicate increasing activity at the Musudan-ri launch facility, including conflicting reports of fueling operations. The loading of highly corrosive liquid fuel, which is difficult to remove, is perceived as an irreversible last step prior to a missile launch. North Korean official media alerted the populace for a significant announcement this past Sunday, but the time passed without event.

Pyongyang has denied it will conduct a missile test, but official media emphasized over the weekend how the 1998 launch of a Taepodong I had "powerfully" demonstrated North Korean military might and the "wise guidance" of leader Kim Jong-il.

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http://atimes.com/atimes/Korea/HF21Dg01.html