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Edited on Tue Jun-20-06 05:14 PM by mike_c
Probable civil war, chaos, death. Iraq was held together as a national entity by that "hostile tyrant" largely against it's own wishes. Unless another tyrant emerges to repeat that process, I think the destruction of Iraq is inevitable, or at least a lengthy spasm of violence. The tensions in Iraq are at least as much sectarian as they are nationalist opposition to occupation. Whether we pull out tomorrow or stay in Iraq for five more years, the outcome will be the same-- Iraq is going to have to go through the process of settling its own matters or through the process of creating another tyrant. But a western style democracy? It won't happen.
I think your question about how Iraq compares to postwar Germany and Japan is a good one. My personal sense is that South Vietnam is a better model for what's happening in Iraq. Germany and Japan were exhausted and drained by massive war efforts prior to their occupations-- they needed administration and rebuilding. While one might argue that Iraq also needs administration and rebuilding just as badly if not more so, it was attacked without provocation, and although occupied, it has never been subdued. Imagine trying to occupy Japan or Germany in 1938 rather than 1945, before the fighting had bled off so many and so much of the remaining people's resources. In Iraq we have a beligerent and energetic population under garrison occupation by a relatively small force. No one ever surrendered the nation to its invaders and now no one ever will. We and they will continue to bleed until we leave, and afterward they will undergo further spasms, probably very bad ones. They will hate us for generations to come. This is the legacy we have created-- I do not believe we can change it or outrun it, and the longer we try to maintain the occupation, the worse the situation will eventually be when it inevitably falls apart.
One other point I'd like to make-- the war against Iraq is seriously damaging America. It is costly-- it will strap our children with crippling debt for generations, and America very well might never recover from that burden alone. It is severely depleting our military in a variety of ways. It is fueling the neocon attack on fundamental American values and freedoms.
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