http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/Comment/DickMorris/062106.htmlI thought it was an interesting read, even if Morris is a little Republican weasel.
Tenn. may give Dems sixth senator they need
For months I have wondered which would be the sixth seat the Democrats could win to capture the Senate.
Because Vice President Dick Cheney would, of course, break any 50-50 tie in favor of the GOP, the Democrats, down 55-45 now, have to gain six seats in the 2006 election to get control.
Five prime Democratic targets have been obvious for some time. According to the latest Rasmussen polls, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) belongs on the endangered-species list, trailing Bob Casey Jr., his Democratic challenger, by 56-33. Also behind, although by lesser margins, are Sens. Mike DeWine (R-Ohio), who trails Rep. Sherrod Brown by 44-41, and Conrad Burns (R-Mont.), losing to Jon Tester by 48-44.
Burns, handicapped by his association with Jack Abramoff, may be headed to defeat. DeWine, a former client of mine, has manifest campaign skills and could come back, but it doesn’t look good.
Ahead of their Democratic challengers but well below 50 percent are Sens. Jim Talent (R-Mo.), who holds a narrow 43-40 lead over Claire McCaskill, and Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.), who leads Sheldon Whitehouse by 44-42. Talent is a great candidate and could come back but would probably be defeated in a Democratic trend. Chafee, a prime RINO (Republican in name only), never really has captured the hearts of his state after succeeding his father and could also be a casualty of a GOP landslide in one of the country’s most Democratic states.
If all five lose, a fair bet right now, who would be the sixth seat without which the Republicans would remain in charge of the Senate?
More at link...
This is basically what i"ve been arguing. We're probably going to pick up Montana, Missouri, Rhode Island, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Which means it's up to Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee or Jim Webb in Virginia to get us the extra seat.
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