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I ran across this today:
"The Washington Post recently reported that since the 1970s, rape has diminished in frequency by some 85 percent. If a major newspaper revealed that rape had increased by 85 percent in the past generation, commentators and politicians would be decrying the fact, pointing fingers and demanding remedies. But this phenomenal success story vanished without a trace--possibly it sounded too good to be true, and perhaps because some people see little to gain from acknowledging the truth.
There is no doubt, though, about the fundamental facts. We tend to discount statistics about rape because many victims don't go to the police. But the best evidence comes from the Justice Department's annual crime victimization survey--which compiles numbers based on interviews with some 75,000 Americans, rather than from police reports. The survey found that in 1979, the rate of rape was 2.8 per 1,000 people over age 11. In 2004, it was 0.4."
snip "But imprisonment alone can't explain what's happened. As criminologist Franklin Zimring of the University of California at Berkeley notes, Canada also has seen crime recede--even though its prison population has shrunk. DNA databases have made it easier to catch rapists, but the trend emerged long before they assumed a major role in solving sex crimes.
The "Freakonomics" explanation--that legal abortion reduced crime by lowering the number of unwanted children, who are more prone to trouble--also falls short. The decline in rape began only seven years after Roe vs. Wade, and 7-year-olds rarely commit sexual assault. Finkelhor and Jones also note that under the hypothesis proposed by University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt, child abuse should have declined long before the '90s, since parents should be less likely to harm children they wanted."
Is this true? If so I have a theory not addressed in the article. Violent offenders offend most between 8 and 35. One the Baby Boomers moved into middle age the crime rate went down because there are fewer folks in the age cohort that are criminals.
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