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Are rapes really down 85% ?

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AngryAmish Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 02:34 PM
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Are rapes really down 85% ?


I ran across this today:

"The Washington Post recently reported that since the 1970s, rape has diminished in frequency by some 85 percent. If a major newspaper revealed that rape had increased by 85 percent in the past generation, commentators and politicians would be decrying the fact, pointing fingers and demanding remedies. But this phenomenal success story vanished without a trace--possibly it sounded too good to be true, and perhaps because some people see little to gain from acknowledging the truth.

There is no doubt, though, about the fundamental facts. We tend to discount statistics about rape because many victims don't go to the police. But the best evidence comes from the Justice Department's annual crime victimization survey--which compiles numbers based on interviews with some 75,000 Americans, rather than from police reports. The survey found that in 1979, the rate of rape was 2.8 per 1,000 people over age 11. In 2004, it was 0.4."

snip
"But imprisonment alone can't explain what's happened. As criminologist Franklin Zimring of the University of California at Berkeley notes, Canada also has seen crime recede--even though its prison population has shrunk. DNA databases have made it easier to catch rapists, but the trend emerged long before they assumed a major role in solving sex crimes.

The "Freakonomics" explanation--that legal abortion reduced crime by lowering the number of unwanted children, who are more prone to trouble--also falls short. The decline in rape began only seven years after Roe vs. Wade, and 7-year-olds rarely commit sexual assault. Finkelhor and Jones also note that under the hypothesis proposed by University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt, child abuse should have declined long before the '90s, since parents should be less likely to harm children they wanted."

Is this true? If so I have a theory not addressed in the article. Violent offenders offend most between 8 and 35. One the Baby Boomers moved into middle age the crime rate went down because there are fewer folks in the age cohort that are criminals.

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applegrove Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 02:39 PM
Response to Original message
1. I'm sure they are. Exactly 15 years after robbery and teenage crimes
went down.. adult male crimes went down. Demographics. Don't let the GOP take ownership of that.. like Gulliani did.
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Recursion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 02:40 PM
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2. Isn't *all* crime down ridiculously?
It peaked in about '93 and is now down to pre-1960's levels, I thought. But it's been rising again over the past 5 years or so, but still is well below its peak levels.
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AngryAmish Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 02:41 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. Peaked in the early 70s
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MindPilot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 02:40 PM
Response to Original message
3. It's probably because of all the praying in schools and
the ten commandments in the courthouses.
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mongo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. No, no, no - It's due to the increased availability
of sexually oriented adult entertainment in our society. Porn decreases rape.

Well, if *some* (so-called) feminists can say that porn causes rape, I can use correlation to prove just the opposite.
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shain from kane Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 02:40 PM
Response to Original message
4. Cellular telephones. n/t
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SmokingJacket Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 02:45 PM
Response to Original message
6. Maybe "Take Back the Night" WORKED.
When I was a student in the 80's, rape -- stranger and date rape -- was a constant fear. I assumed it was because I was older or because the campus near me wasn't reporting its crimes, but it appears that the numbers really have gone down.

Some of the stigma has been lifted from rape, too. I have the feeling women are less likely to be shamed into silence than they once were -- perhaps, in the old days, rapists were more confident that they could get away with it.
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ThomCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 02:48 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. A lot of us made a HUGE effort to
make everyone aware of rape and sexual assault in the 80s. TBtN was only one of the efforts. I think all of that organizing, speaking, and making public nuisances of ourselves had a very strong effect. Nobody could pretend that rape and sexual assault weren't happening, or weren't serious.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Nah, it's demographics. We can't affect this statistic
because the paradigm of males as predators and females as prey is THEIR problem. We're just the ones who get hurt and sometimes destroyed by it.

There won't be a meaningful decrease in rapes not related to demographic changes until the culture changes.
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mongo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 03:58 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. Demographics?
Care to explain that comment?

the paradigm of males as predators and females as prey is THEIR problem.

Wow. A statement like this is as innane as saying that women would not get raped if THEY just went into estrus like other mammals.
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Beaverhausen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 03:50 PM
Response to Original message
10. Remember - a huge percentage of rapes go unreported
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 04:04 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. and don't forget how LONG it takes for cases to get to court
I would suspect that there are still a lot of women who just don't want to relive the experience for 5 years going through the legal process and then relive it all in public at court..

I agree on the demographics theory too.. As a population ages, the types of crimes change.. Notice how we have seen an UPSURGE of adult-male-CEO crime :evilgrin:
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sable302 Donating Member (597 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-29-06 04:07 PM
Response to Original message
13. Add to it that
Edited on Thu Jun-29-06 04:10 PM by sable302
a higher percentage of rapes are reported.

It's true, sexual crime really is waaaay down from what it was 20 years ago.

But, oddly enough, we seem to be even more hyper afraid of sexual crime than ever before.

For example, my neighborhood discovered a sex offender living in our midst. Holy shit the response ranged from people moving to death threats (also illegal, BTW). Good God, the man was like 80, in a walker, and his crime was committed some 60 years ago.

It's statistics like this that convince me that the ever popular freakout bandwagon is a load of crap.

On edit, it's not demographics. We don't have 85% fewer under 35's (even per capits) than we did in the 60's-70's. That's just dumb.
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