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Sitting senators rarely win POTUS races. Consider the previous job descriptions of the 42 POTI (I'm not counting VP when a VP took over for a dead or resigned POTUS; I'm using their last job before they were elected VP):
Washington: President of the Constitutional Convention Adams: Vice President TJ: Vice President Madison: Secretary of State Monroe: Secretary of State JQA: Secretary of State Jackson: Senator Van Buren: Vice President WH Harrison: Retired (job before retirement was ambassador) Tyler (elected as VP): Senator (also later became the only POTUS to serve in the CSA government) Polk: Democratic party activist (last gov't job was Governor of TN) Taylor: General Fillmore (elected as VP): Comptroller of NY Pierce: General Buchanan: Ambassador Lincoln: Lawyer (last gov't job was Representative) A. Johnson (elected as VP): Military Governor of TN Grant: General Hayes: Governor of OH Garfield: Representative Arthur (elected as VP): Lawyer (no previous gov't job) Cleveland: Governor of New York (second election: ex-President) Benjamin Harrison: Lawyer (last gov't job was Senator) McKinley: Governor of OH TR (elected as VP): Governor of NY Taft: Secretary of War Wilson: Governor of NJ Harding: Senator Coolidge (elected as VP): Governor of MA Hoover: Secretary of Commerce FDR: Governor of NY Truman (elected as VP): Senator Ike: General JFK: Senator LBJ (elected as VP): Senator Tricky Dick: Author and lecturer (last gov't job was VP) Ford (never elected as POTUS or VP): Representative Carter: Governor of GA Reagan: GE spokesman (last gov't job was Governor of CA) Poppy: VP Big Dog: Governor of AR *: Governor of TX
Now, let's look at the major losing candidate(s) of each election (starting with 1804 because of the 12th amendment, and excluding former or later POTI): Thomas Pinckney: State Senator in SC George Clinton: VP Dewitt Clinton: Lt. Gov. of NY Rufus King: Senator Henry Clay: Speaker of the House Lewis Cass: Governor of MI John Fremont: Colonel Winfield Scott: General John C. Breckenridge: VP George McClelland: General Horatio Seymour: Governor of NY Horace Greeley: Newspaper Editor Samuel J. Tilden: State Senator in NY Winfield Hancock: General William Jennings Bryan: Democratic party activist Alton Parker: Judge Charles Evans Hughes: SCOTUS Justice James Cox: Governor of OH John W. Davis: Ambassador Alfred E. Smith: Governor of NY Alfred M. Landon: Governor of KS Wendell Wilkie: Lawyer (no public office ever) Thomas Dewey: Governor of NY Adlai Stevenson: Governor of IL AuH20: Senator Hubert Humphrey: VP George McGovern: Senator from SD Walter Mondale: Lawyer (last gov't job: VP) Michael Dukakis: Governor of MA Bob Dole: Senator Al Gore: VP John Kerry: Senator
So, what do we see from this? Well, first
VP: 4 and 4 -- even record. Senator: 2 and 4 -- (5 and 4 if you count elected as VP) Governor: 8 and 8 -- even record, but governors run more than VPs or Senators Lawyer: Cabinet Secretary: 4 and 0 -- only one has run since the end of the 1st Party System, and he was 100 years ago Military Officer: 4 and 4
So, from what I can tell of this data, a governor probably will run, and if he does, he has an even chance of winning. We don't have a sitting VP, but we have a former VP. If a governor doesn't run, he probably will, and he also has an even chance of winning. We also have a military officer, who is statistically as likely to run as Gore; he has the same statistical chance of winning (according to this data) as Gore. Senators come next on likelihood of running, that's either Hillary or Bayh, Senators are twice as likely to lose as they are to win when the run for President. Finally, no cabinet secretary has ever yet lost a Presidential election: do we have one we like?
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