I was just wondering.... What if the "sectarian violence" increases.....

...and US troops remain hunkered down in Ft. Green Zone (to minimize the casualty numbers)?

What if we find ourselves hemmed in on all four sides by an all out civil war?

What if the United Nations declared the country an international disaster that required intervention?....

Iknow that's a lot of "what ifs", but....

Since Buxh always welcomed UN support on the condition he was the supreme commander, would he accept a lessor role in the police action, or would it play out differently?

Though I think it would be wise of him to cut his (our) losses and swallow his pride, I know his ego may supercede and put us at odds with the world at large.

I wonder how others see this see this possible worst-case scenario playing out.

that's what it is:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2650432

Sort of like a walking, talking Jersey barrier...with targets painted on it. And it likely will increase, I fear.

We don't have to worry about Iran, though, if we stay. The Saudis have promised to drop the price of oil so low they'll have trouble making their own government payroll, never mind trying to fund any adventurism in Iraq, if that's what it takes to keep them home and not interfering. And the Iranians have been warned by the Saudis that they'll do this, I think. And as for actual bodies to support the cause, I think they'd have a hard time getting those pissed off young kids in Iran to actually go fight in Iraq--they could give a shit about those guys, frankly. They speak Farsi, not Arabic, and they aren't Arabs...they'd rather go dancing, really.

The government of Iran is having internal troubles. Their midget mayor Puppet-President was BOOED, his picture was set on fire, and firecrackers were exploded while he gave a speech to a packed house of college kids at the U of Teheran. They called him a 'dictator' and got pretty doggone nasty to him.

Keep in mind most of the population in Iran is under thirty. They barely remember the Revolution. They look back at their parents' pictures in the photo albums of the "Shah Days" and see mom without a chador in a miniskirt, and dad minus the facial hair AND wearing the disco shirt with chains, out at a dance club with all their friends. They see pictures of men and women lounging around the pool. Even the less affluent have family pictures where men and women were in the same room, socializing. They hear stories about what life USED to be like, and they aren't talking politics.
There was nightlife, music, fun, and no jerkwads in brown robes walking around looking to haul you away to get a hundred lashes--or a death sentence--for crimes against chastity.

If the Saudis make good on their promises and threats, the only thing we'll have to fear are the Shi'as and the Sunnis trying to kill each other, and us as well....

Over at an oil site <The Oil Drum>, it has been reported that the Saudis may no longer have that extra surge capacity to really take the market down to $30-40. They may be able to put extra product on the market, but it will be heavy, high-sulfur stuff that few refineries can handle and no one else wants. They may no longer be able to pull 2-3 million barrels of extra light, low-sulfur crude a day for any length of time.

The Iranians may try to call the Saudi's bluff.

SO they can sell all of their light crude. But yeah it appears the Saudis dont have much left

themselves, meet their price, and offer better quality; and that will still leave them cash-poor. Because I do think those Saudis WILL drop the price if they have to, in a heartbeat--it's way easier than trying to put their own boots on the ground in Iraq. They were hectoring OPEC about 'excess capacity' a while back and suggesting that other nations had too much product stored up and that they should all start unloading it. Wonder how much of their OWN they'll unload?

Even if you're buying heavy oil, if it's cheap enough to be worth the hassle, and you end up still saving money on the other end, after the refining costs, it's a good deal. The Venezuelans have sour stuff, and they do OK.

I also think the Saudis may have seen this coming, as they've been out and about for the past several years, quietly making deals to build and expand/streamline refinery capacity here and there: http://www.worldfuels.com/sample.php?WFT#A1

The Philippines and Saudi Aramco have made an agreement for a new oil refinery to be constructed in the Philippines' Bataan province, the country's President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo said this week, Philippines News Agency reported.

The agreement was finalized when Macapagal-Arroyo visited Saudi Arabia last month.

Last year, the president of Saudi Aramco originally requested a feasibility study for a refinery in Northern Mindanao in the Philippines (see WRFT 12/09/05).

In addition to the Philippines, the refinery could supply oil to China and other Far East countries as well as the U.S. West Coast.
.... {more at link)

And here from Feb 05: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/industryforecast/refineries/Updates/2005%20updates/feb%2005%20update.htm#Saudi%20Company Saudi Company to Build $2b Oil Refinery in Bangladesh

And this Saudi multipurpose refinery will be online by 08: http://www.engineeringtalk.com/news/frw/frw193.html

And our friends in Bahrain, with their low sulfer plant: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/industryforecast/refineries/Updates/2005%20updates/feb%2005%20update.htm#Bahrain%20Petroleum

Japanese oil engineering company JGC Corporation has been awarded the construction contract of a new hydrocracker unit with a capacity of 40,000 barrels a day to produce low sulfur diesel.

Construction is expected to start next month. The low sulfur diesel project is the main element of Bapco's strategic investment program. Its main objective is to reduce the current high sulfur content of Bapco's diesel from an average of 0.7 percent to 0.001 percent to give the company a competitive position in the international oil market. The project is expected to be completed in early 2007.

JGC's contract also involves upgrading an existing hydrocracker to produce low sulfur diesel. A new Refinery Gas Desulphurization unit with a capacity of 45,000 b/d will be also built as part of the modernization program.

Even Iran is getting into the sour crude game: http://www.ameinfo.com/87531.html

I do think the Saudis have seen this coming, and they've quietly planned for it. They are also increasing their capacity to produce LNG, which can effectively substitute for oil particularly in production of electricity. But as for their oil, they aren't just building new refineries at home or via joint ventures abroad (Turkey China, Indonesia, PI, India, Carribbean, and so forth) they are also tweaking and streamlining older refineries. Here's one of their guys, talking to the Japanese on this very subject recently:

'Clearly, energy security as it applies to petroleum is a function of both supply and demand, and the interrelationship between the two is vital,' Mishari said. 'In fact, the interface between supply and demand is where our industry is facing some of its most pressing challenges, including not only stretched global refining and transportation capacities, but also the mismatch between existing refining configurations and the heavier, sour crude grades that account for much of the world's spare crude production capacity.'

Mishari noted that Saudi Aramco is involved in about a quarter of all refinery projects to increase capacity around the world. He said the company is committed to getting the highest quality products to consumers through a series of petroleum increment expansion projects that will bring millions of additional barrels per day to the global energy stream in the coming years.

I dunno--those Saudis have been in this oil game for a long time. It's all they do. We're pikers at the job compared to them. They also are very patient, and they think way, way downstream. After all, chess is their favorite game, they've a long history of thinking ten moves ahead. And no matter how much oil they have to pay George for American blood, they'd likely rather pay than try to muster up an Army of soft-handed, indolent rich boys--it's just easier to outsource that sort of dirty work, in their minds.