strength, not frequency, of hurricanes.
I fully expect a population shift from vulnerable areas along the gulf and Florida coasts over the next few decades, primarily due to the lack of affordable insurance.
Warmer Oceans Blamed For Intense Hurricanes
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/state/epaper/2006/03/17/a4a_hurricanes_0317.htmlRising ocean temperatures are directly linked to a worldwide increase in hurricane strength over the past 35 years, a Georgia Tech research team reported Thursday — a finding that could add fuel to the debate over possible links between global climate change and hurricanes. The new report comes on the heels of a warning this week by a coalition of state insurance commissioners that the insurance industry is "threatened by a perfect storm of rising weather losses, rising global temperatures and more Americans than ever living in harm's way."
The analysis by Tech researchers expands on two studies last year that showed a pronounced global increase in the number of intense hurricanes, those ranked as Category 4 or 5, since 1970. The new research stops short of blaming global warming, but says the increase is "directly due" to higher sea surface temperatures, which are up about one degree in the past 35 years.
Climate experts and hurricane forecasters agree that higher ocean temperatures provide — in the form of increased water vapor — the fuel for hurricane intensification. Unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean played a key role in stoking several of last year's hurricanes.
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Curry and her Tech colleagues, Carlos Hoyos, Paula Agudelo and Peter Webster, acknowledge the cycle. But they contend that the recent increase in intense hurricanes is the result of the regular cycle "imposed on the long-term trend" of increasing sea surface temperatures.
Worsened by Global Warming?
Spats Are So Tempestuous, Sides Are Barely Talking, Charge of 'Brain Fossilization'
By VALERIE BAUERLEIN
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
February 2, 2006; Page A1
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06033/648772.stmWilliam Gray, America's most prominent hurricane scientist and an ardent foe of the belief that global warming has worsened hurricanes, was supposed to join a panel discussing the storms. So was Greg Holland of the National Center on Atmospheric Research -- who disagrees with Dr. Gray. But the organizers withdrew the invitations after deciding the dispute had grown so nasty it was too risky to put the two in the same room.
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His adversary Dr. Holland is among a group of prominent scientists who argue that the recent burst of powerful storms isn't part of a normal pattern. In a recent article, he and co-authors said that global warming caused by human activity, while not affecting the number of hurricanes, appears to be causing more of them to be very intense. Dr. Holland went to the meeting despite the cancellation of his joint appearance with Dr. Gray and presented his paper's conclusions during a session on a wide variety of weather issues.
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Dr. Gray attacked the Science article on his Web site, agreeing that ocean temperatures were climbing but maintaining that the rise was largely attributable to long-term heating and cooling trends. The rise in water temperature has negligible connection to the hurricanes, he argued. He complained that "the near universal reference to this paper over the last few weeks by most major media outlets is helping to establish a false belief among the general public...that global warming may be a contributing factor" to devastation such as that from Katrina.
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Scientists on both sides say they expect follow-up studies proving they are right to be published before the next hurricane season starts in June. Drs. Trenberth and Emanuel are submitting separate studies to major journals arguing that the influence of natural cycles has been greatly overestimated, a mutinous theory in established hurricane science. Dr. Landsea says he has submitted his own analysis to a major journal confirming the natural ebb and flow of storms argued by Dr. Gray. Both sides are waiting to see which papers will be accepted.