TIME: If midterms today, it's privately agreed GOP would lose the House

From the Magazine | NATION
REPUBLICANS ON THE RUN
If the midterm elections were held today, top strategists of both parties say privately, the Republicans would probably lose the 15 seats they need to keep control of the House of Representatives
By KAREN TUMULTY AND MIKE ALLEN
Posted Sunday, Mar. 26, 2006

Considering that Vice President Dick Cheney had come a long way to help Florida Congressman Ric Keller raise $250,000 last week, the reception he got in the Sunshine State could have been a bit warmer. After extolling Cheney as "one of the most effective Vice Presidents in the history of the U.S.," Keller launched into all the times he had recently opposed the Bush Administration, including the deal to allow a Dubai company to manage operations at several U.S. ports. And then Keller went right for the punch line: "'Don't be too hasty,'" he claimed the Vice President had pleaded with him. "'Let's go hunting. We'll talk about it.'"

As the campaign season kicks into gear, Republican incumbents are having a hard time figuring out how close they want to be to the White House. Voters have plenty to take out on Republican candidates this year—ethics scandals, the g.o.p.'s failure to curb spending, the government's inept response to Hurricane Katrina, a confusing new prescription-drug program for seniors and, more than anything else, an unpopular President who is fighting an unpopular war. Iraq could make a vulnerability of the Republicans' greatest asset, the security issue.

The midterm contests in a President's second term are almost always treacherous, but this time around, Republicans thought it would be different. The 2006 elections, coming on top of their gains in 2002 and 2004, would make history and perhaps even cement a g.o.p. majority in Congress for a generation. George W. Bush's credibility on national security and the states' aggressive gerrymandering, they believed, had turned the vast majority of districts into fortresses for incumbents. But that's not turning out to be the case. In recent weeks, a startling realization has begun to take hold: if the elections were held today, top strategists of both parties say privately, the Republicans would probably lose the 15 seats they need to keep control of the House of Representatives and could come within a seat or two of losing the Senate as well. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who masterminded the 1994 elections that brought Republicans to power on promises of revolutionizing the way Washington is run, told Time that his party has so bungled the job of governing that the best campaign slogan for Democrats today could be boiled down to just two words: "Had enough?"

Iraq is driving nearly all the big indicators the wrong way for Republicans. In a Time poll conducted last week, Bush's job approval rating was mired at 39%; 3 in 5 Americans said the country is headed in the wrong direction, and when those surveyed were given the choice between a generic Republican and a generic Democrat for Congress, the nameless Democrat won, 50% to 41%. The signs suggest an anti-Republican wave is building, says nonpartisan electoral handicapper Stuart Rothenberg, whose Rothenberg Political Report is closely followed in Washington. "The only question is how high, how big, how much force it will have. I think it will be considerable." The danger signs for Republicans show up across the electoral map but nowhere more clearly than in the swing state of Pennsylvania, where the hottest Senate race in the country is being fought and where Republican strategists say as many as five g.o.p. congressional seats are in play, out of a total 19. The President is still beloved by the state's Republican faithful, as evidenced by the fact that 500 of them showed up to see him at a $1,000-a-plate private fund raiser for Senator Rick Santorum last week in Sewickley Heights, a suburb of Pittsburgh. Santorum posed for photos with the President at the airport and leaned into a smiling handshake with political guru Karl Rove. But it was telling that Santorum, who is trailing state treasurer Bob Casey by 10 points in the latest polls, scheduled no public appearances with Bush. When Cheney flew to Newark, N.J., earlier in the week to raise nearly $400,000 that state senator Tom Kean Jr. badly needs in his bid for the U.S. Senate, the candidate didn't show up until 15 minutes after the Vice President's motorcade had left. Kean blamed the state's notorious traffic for his tardiness. Local papers confirmed that there hadn't been much congestion at the time....

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1176959-2,00.html

I think we can manage to F%@# it up before then.


Sorry for the pessimism. Not having a good day...

Keep in mind "Committee Chairman Henry Waxman," and that should keep our efforts from flagging.

There's a lot of hands to be played before November. If this election were celebrity poker, I'm afraid the Republicans would be Dule Hill and the Democrats would be Chris Kattan. On the other hand (pun unavoidable), we really have been dealt an excellent stack of cards this year.

The bigger problem is that so many districts are so thoroughly gerrymandered to be "safe" that major swings in votes may not register a difference in more than a trickle of seats. Case in point is what DeLay did in Texas. He had lines drawn so that half the Democrats are marshalled into heavy urban districts while the other half are parcelled out evenly among all the Republican districts. Most Republicans in '04 were elected with about 58-62% of the vote. Even if there's a net swing of 5 point toward the Democrats (tough, but doable) we probably won't overturn a single district.

In order to take any seats, we'd have to totally swamp the decks with a pie-in-the-sky 10% voter swing--a total realignment--just to pull any seats over at all. Given the power of the incumbency and the ability of any competant member to convince his voters "I'm not part of the problem in Washington DC", I don't think you could pull those kinds of numbers state-wide. You have essentially identical problems in California, Colorado, Florida, Washington, Pennsylvania. The only state that I know of that still draws its districts honest enough to swing is Iowa, which is one reason why that state mostly elects moderates.

No matter how pissed off voters are, the incumbents are protected by a purposefully polarized electorate and some cleverly drawn voting districts. I'll give better than even money that the House stays Republican and we don't pick up more than 5 seats.

that fast and loose with my money.

I shouldn't have implied that the ball rests entirely in the seemingly inept and trembling hands of our party leaders. While based upon their recent behavior, I could conceive of how they could single-handedly fumble away all the ammo they have at their disposal, I realize that it isn't entirely under their control.

I believe there will be a trickle of altered perspective due to some Americans awakening to the fact that there are serious problems with our government. You are going to have a few percentage points of swing as a result, but I wonder how much of that will be pissed away by apathy (moreso than is usual I think, because of media fatigue, confusion, deliberate Repunk obfuscation, which is already in full swing, and well, people just giving up hope.) All of that essentially nets nothing of the sort of groundswell that's needed to bring about real change.

Couple that with your excellent point of redistricting and election fraud of various stripes and I think we are in for more of the same old crap. Here's hoping I'm totally wrong about all of this...

I think many DUers lose sight of the fact that while we are well informed, we are an incredibly small minority. Most people are more concerned with who's going to be the next American idol or when they are going to have the time to paint the garage. There is plenty of time for the public at large to go back to 'business as usual' before November. God help us, but I feel like it's going to have to get a lot worse before it gets better.

This is cool and I see no way out of this trend for the rethugs, massive fraud is the only thing that can save them. The question is, can they actually get away with that again?

It all depends on the numbers.

Wouldn't that make a great bumper sticker!

... and that they'll be mysteriously well financed this year.