Huh?: Consumer confidence at 4-year high

ECONOMIC REPORT
Consumer confidence at 4-year high

E-mail | Print | | Disable live quotes By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:11 AM ET Mar 28, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer attitudes brightened in March, rising unexpectedly to the most optimistic since May 2002, the Conference Board said Tuesday.
The consumer confidence index rose to 107.2 from an upwardly revised 102.7 in February, despite higher gasoline prices.
Economists expected a reading of 101.8, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.
The present situation index rose to 133.3 from 130.3, the highest since August 2001. Read the full release.
However, the near-term outlook is still somewhat pessimistic. The expectations index rose to 89.9 from 84.2.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BAAE1F42C%2D6321%2D4598%2D9C0D%2D2401AFBD1DDE%7D&siteid=

or anyone I know

... of "Pre-Approved, put yourself in debt to your eyeballs" letters...

Tax returns are coming in, people are spending that money on things that they know they won't be able to afford next month.

I say BS to their "survey"
Small businesses are disappearing all the time.
Check it out in your own supermarkets...the meat counters look more like they are stocked for the depression. That is not the result of consumer confidence, it's the result of a changing economy, and not changing for the better.

certainly not in mine.!!

:grr:

BushCo has lied about most every subject under the sun and this "survey" is no different.

This is enron book-keeping. Punch up a copy of Asia Times for the real scoop.

Yes, it hit bottom after 9-11 but a small rise from the bottom is nothing to crow about.

Consumer confidence is not high, it is the highest in four years. Still in the negative numbers, just not as negative as before.

Check out http://pollingreport.com/consumer.htm

On a scale of +100 to -100 consumer confidence is -8. Not in the positive! It has been as low as -20, so -8 is higher, just not good.

I didn't buy a $3.50 beta fish yesterday.

Sheesh, you can't buy a gallon of milk and a loaf of bread for less than $5.00 any more. When the necessities, like gas, food, rent and utilities skyrocket how can people be "confident"?:mad:

The devil is in how they figure it out. And usually it is a tilted game.

The Consumer Confidence Index is done by a mail survey of 5000 people every month. They are asked five questions:

Respondents appraisal of current business conditions.
Respondents expectations regarding business conditions six months hence.
Respondents appraisal of the current employment conditions.
Respondents expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence.
Respondents expectations regarding their total family income six months hence.

For each of the 5 questions, there are three response options: POSITIVE, NEGATIVE and NEUTRAL.

Then there is some statistical black magic done, responses are "seasonably adjusted":wtf: and are compared to a *1985* benchmark(again:wtf:)

Like with the unemployment figures, it seems to me, and also to many economists, that this is a number that is really tilted in favor of producing bright, shiny optimistic reports. Many demographic groups are either underrepresented, or not represented at all(the homeless come to mind). In fact, according to the Conference Report's own figures, they only get a seventy percent response rate on average. And we all know the perils of the flucuating numbers that surround averages.

So yes, we should put some stock in this number, but frankly not a whole lot. Besides, here in a month it will probably be quietly revised downwards, much like what happens with unemployment and inflation numbers.

For more information on the methodology behind this index<http://www.conference-board.org/cgi-bin/MsmGo.exe?grab_id=40&EXTRA_ARG=&SCOPE=Public&CFGNAME=MssFind%2Ecfg&host_id=42&page_id=14942464&query=five+survey+questions&hiword=five+QUESTIONSE+survey+SURVEYED+SURVEYING+SURVEYS+QUESTION+QUESTIONABLE+QUESTIONED+QUESTIONING+questions+QUESTIONSA+>

The margin of error in this survey is +/- 2 points! Now, for this particular survey, that margin of error is a probable, or expected error, of any result. So, this means it's the point at which 50% of all values would be contained within a distribution.

What's this all mean?

It means that the survey has a standard deviation of 3 units, so the actual expected range of this survey result is +/- 9!!!!!! Yeah, 9 units. That with no assignable cause, the value can move up or down 9 units based upon the random fluctations of behaviors, moods, and expectations within the general population.

So, this 3 point uptick is absolutely apropos of NOTHING!
The Professor

The official reports or what I acutally see and hear going on around me. Maybe it's just my own personal back luck that I only seem to encounter workers who are out of work, businesses doing less business, people in general figuring out how to get by on less.

Maybe I don't hang out at the right yacht clubs and that's why I never actually witness all this brightening of consumer attitudes.

Literally every single person I know is worried sick about their economic prospects. My mom is worried she might live too long, that being defined as living long enough to witness the successful destruction of medicare and social security. People my age are clinging to the remnants of their middle class lifestyles watching the cost of living go up while their incomes go down. And random bits of conversation overheard in public places are often related to how bad things are.