Democrats Gain Edge in Party Identification During Last Year

http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=22168
March 29, 2006
Democrats Gain Edge in Party Identification During Last Year
Fewer Americans identify as Republicans, more as independents


by Jeffrey M. Jones


GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans are about as likely to identify as Republicans as they are Democrats according to a review of recent Gallup polls. However, once the leanings of independents are taken into account, the Democrats gain an advantage. Democrats have been on par with, or ahead of, Republicans in party identification since the second quarter of 2005. Since that time, the percentage of Americans identifying as Democrats has held steady, but fewer have identified with the Republican Party and more as independents.

In the eight national polls Gallup conducted in the first quarter of 2006, an average of 33% of Americans identified as Democrats, while 32% identified as Republicans and 34% as independents. More Americans have identified as Democrats than Republicans in each of the last four quarters, although in each case the advantage was small -- from less than one percentage point to three points.

Average Party Identification
Gallup polls, recent quarters


Democrat


Independent


Republican


%


%


%

2006-I


33


34


32

2005-IV


33


34


32

2005-III


34


34


31

2005-II


33


32


33

2005-I


33


31


35

2004-IV


34


29


36

2004-III


34


30


36

The quarterly calculations involve very large sample sizes (approximately 8,000 for the first quarter of 2006), so even small changes from quarter to quarter are likely to be statistically significant. The small but meaningful change observed during recent quarters is due to a gain in independent identification and a decline in Republican identification. Democratic identification has been remarkably consistent at roughly 33% since the beginning of last year. Republican identification fell from 35% in the first quarter of 2005 to roughly 32% since that time. Independent identification has increased from 31% to 34% during the same period.

Part of the increase in independent identification is most likely due to the passing of the 2004 election. Past Gallup polling shows that the percentage of independents typically declines in a presidential election year -- when partisan politics is at its most intense -- and then usually increases in the year following the election.

Independent Identification in Recent Years
Presidential election years in bold italics

Year


% of Americans identifying
as independents

1995


39

1996


35

1997


37

1998


37

1999


39

2000


35

2001


35

2002


34

2003


36

2004


31

2005


33

2006


34

Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Republicans have been more likely than Democrats to hold an edge in party identification. In the 18 quarters since 9/11, Republicans have had an edge in 12 of them. This is a change from the past, as Democrats have traditionally held an edge in national partisanship in Gallup polls dating back to the 1940s except for a brief period of time in 1991 around the Persian Gulf War and late 1994 and 1995 after Republicans took control of Congress.