Democrat Busby WAY ahead of Kaloogian in the SurveyUSA Poll

Analysis: In a Special Primary for the U.S. House of Representatives in California's 50th Congressional District today, 3/28/06, Democrat Francine Busby tops a crowded field of Republicans, but falls just short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff June 6th. With 2 weeks to the 4/11 Primary, Busby is at 45%, trailed by Republican Eric Roach at 14%, Republican Howard Kaloogian at 12%, and Republican Brian Bilbray at 10%. Busby is supported by 85% of Democrats, half of Independents, and 10% of Republicans. Kaloogian and Roach are each supported by 23% of Republicans. The district is heavily Republican and whichever Republican survives the Primary would be favored in a runoff, but the Democrats have a chance to capture the seat if Busby can top 50% in the Primary. Busby gets 53% among female voters. The larger the turnout among women, the better Busby's chances to avoid a runoff. The 50th Congressional seat is vacant; Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham resigned on 11/28/2005.

Filtering: 800 registered voters from California's 50th Congressional District, identified using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 3/25/06 - 3/27/06. Of them, 404 were judged to be "likely voters". Crosstabs reflect Likely Special Primary voters.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=40f955c2-605d-4fad-be76-5b450e3f08c7

kick

Given that district is a republican bastion.

scoring Republican.