How many major DU predictions did NOT come true this year?

DU gets hit by fevers of people getting excited about something that they wish for, want for, so badly that they convince themselves that it is certainly going to happen, even though logic strongly suggests that it won't happen. And if you tell the wishers that it is highly unlikely you get flamed.

So what were some of the fevers of predictions that were supposed to be absolute certainties for 2005, but didn't happen. I can think of some.

Bush was supposed to bring back the draft. The draft didn't come back. That was heavily predicted. Activating some NG units doesn't count. Only a draft is a draft.

Rush was supposed to be in jail, or discredited and off the air. Rush is not in jail, and is still on the air.

Bush was going to be impeached by the end of the year. Bush has not been impeached. (I will also predict that he will not be impeached in 2006.)

Roberts nomination was supposed to dead. How many posters were so certain they have found the magic bullet that would stop him. (I posted that we needed to fight it, and that we should go down fighting, but I never had hope of victory and said that too.)

Anybody else remember some predictions here on DU that turned out to be just so much wishful thinking.


My point in this thread is that wishes don't get us anything, only solid analysis moves up forward.

i'm from new orleans, predictions from last year might as well be from last century

links to threads of predictions would be cool

...then you should have seen them. For a couple of months before the election there were floods of threads predicting that Bush would bring back the draft. Certainly you should have seen them.

How many threads have there been proclaiming that Rush was going down? How have you missed them?

There are many speculations here that are thoughtful and reasoned. And there are many that are little more than wishes, or paranoia, or conspiracy theories but that somehow become the received wisdom that must not be challenged. It is the latter that I am interested in.

My theory is that there's a bunch of neoCONS and fellow travelers who infiltrate progressive boards to try to cause gloom and infighting. They also try to give legitimacy to stolen elections, anti democratic policies and the culture of corruption that has metastasized out of Texas that undermines peace, prosperity and actual freedom in America and around the world.I predict there will be more of this petty ratfucking in 2006.

they write letters to the editor, freep polls, and infiltrate Democratic message boards. They really have a lot of time on their hands, don't you think?

focusing on silly predictions, that is.

you've made the case that x x x x didn't happen therefore discussion of such is a waste of time.

But I'll waste my time trying to prove otherwise to you.

Here are a few gems.

Shutting down congress it was speculated and endorsed by us and was successfully called and predicted here on DU.

Indictments of Libby (Rove is forth coming) it's misleading to say that it was everyone from Scotty the dog and upward.

Bolton wouldn't get through and he'd be appointed by Bush during recess.

Frist didn't have the balls to use the nuclear option.

Election fraud in 2004..happened and would be proved. according to the GOA they concur things were not well with presidential election.


Oh yes I forgot.. the bigger one.. Barbara Boxer standing with the black caucus during the Electoral College results


My point is, speculation and discussion happen in DU, always have and always will. To suggest a MSG board is not the place for discussion or to suggest it's wasted time is silly. Whether people can control the justice department or how congress votes or what the media reports suffers from a delusions.

I'm sure in those threads you mentioned there were at least 10 people who disagreed with the OP, does that nullify your point that predictions didn't come true? Technically there were 10 people who gave a counter opinion to why Roberts would be confirmed.. and 50 people who state that a draft would never happen because of x y z.

It's differing opinions not predictions

...a feeding frenzy, and any who disagreed were shouted down.

Look at all the impeachment threads now. Rational analysis says: No Way. But try posting that on any of those threads and it is like cutting a noisy, really foul, fart on their elevator. They get upset.

here on DU ALL of the time!

Seen the ones on the death plenty? If you say something counter to the majority your going to get your ass chewed, foul fart or not.

I would say they jury is still out on the impeachment whether Du believes or doesn't believe. I've seen as many posts for it "will happen" as i have for "it won't happen."

so my magic 8 ball says "the issue is still being pissed and moaned over and will continue to be so until blood is split."

I think it's not a prediction so much as a hope. You shitting all over that, and that is what is getting you into trouble. Any "rational" person recognizes that and holdd their fingers (or tongues) or at least prepares themselves for the bitch slap that is coming. You deem it fantasy, why do you need to be the needle to pop a bubble? That just makes you seem like a bully.

Told you so, is rather immature way of handling ones business, better to say something less brutish and more redeeming like "Funny how that happens, maybe next time."

Then again I am sure the last thing you want is a lecture on MSG board etiquette.

is that the implication is: so stop trying to push the idea. Some of us who have written LTTE or called our congressman might resent the implication that defending the constitution is a waste of time. In fact, all Americans should be offended by the idea that upholding the foundation of our government is not going to happen. If they were, then it would happen. I don't why people post "It won't happen" except possibly to be able to say "I told you so", if it doesn't. If everyone who wanted to be able to say "I told you so" called their congressman, wrote an LTTE, or joined a protest or what have you, that would be a much better use of time.

Are you aware of what it takes to remove a POTUS by impeachment?

in 2006 in regards to the War, the elections, Indictments, Illegal wiring tapping. You seem to talk the talk, so walk it.

...were obviously silly on the face of them. Anybody with any sense could know that the draft would not come back, but saying that in 2004 earned a person lots of flames. So where are the ones who predicted the draft now?

Other, RATIONAL speculation, I have no problem with.

I will predict that Bush will not invade Iran, or Syria, as many here think. Reason: Land forces are stretched too thin. While we could defeat their military machines due to our air power, we would not be able to occupy them. We are having enough trouble in Iraq now. Bush doesn't make decisions in a vacuum, he calls in advisors and generals just like any POTUS and so he will have been told that it can't be done.

Looks like you lose on that one.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/10/30/wsyria30.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/10/30/ixworld.html

(snip)
Syria accuses US of launching lethal raids over its borders
By Harry de Quetteville in Baghouz
(Filed: 29/10/2005)

Syria has accused the United States of launching lethal military raids into its territory from Iraq, escalating the diplomatic crisis between the two countries as the Bush administration seeks to step up pressure on President Bashar Assad's regime.


The charge follows leaks in Washington that the US has already engaged in military raids into Syria and is contemplating launching special forces operations on Syrian soil to eliminate insurgent networks before they reach Iraq.

BTW, what's the point of this thread?

By invasion I mean masses of troops roaring across the borders to seize and occupy the country or part of the country.

It could go two ways. It could give Bush a huge lift and hurt Democrats if he plays it right and we play it wrong.

If we do it right, we can win big time. I went into that in my post today of "Due Process vs Efficient Enforcement" and Spygate

If we can get our two points across to the public, we win. If we don't - he wins a big one. At this point we aren't working on those two points too well, but there is still lots of time.

Of course this is subject to rapid change as more information becomes available.

plus provable allegations of "high crimes and misdemeanors" (I think we can both agree that that is one thing we have more than enough of)

Step One: Keep the pressure on by pushing impeachment into the media discourse as much as possible

Step Two: Win back the House.

Step Three: Impeach in the House. At this point it doesn't even matter if he is convicted and removed in the Senate. He will be tarnished forever as the third president to be impeached.

None of these three things can be accomplished by talking about how "rational analysis indicates that it isn't going to happen".

You are using the work "impeachment" correctly. I have slipped into a habit of using it when I actually meant "removed by impeachment" which is what most posters seem to think it means. I need to be more precise, and shall be.

"Impeachment" is doubtful, but possible if we take back the house. "Removal by impeachment" is not going to happen.

I do not think it would be to our advantage. It would look to the majority as mere revenge for Clinton.

....

Actually getting involved in our party and in our local government, taking part in the system and not just analyzing and arm chair quarterbacking moves us forward.

Taking action by writing to congress, by making them hear us, that moves us forward.

Analysis be damned. Some of the predictions you list may not come true this year, but they may happen next year. Changes won't happen unless we are involved and by being involved, I mean doing more than analyzing.

FYI, the Plame grand jury outcome (indictments) was predicted by DUers a full year before it actually came about. The DUers most active in the Plame threads were right on the money, they were just a year ahead of the actual grand jury.

Hasn't happened. Only a minor player got tagged.

Your shifting of definitions is too convenient by half.
The Professor

those who did the early anaylsis predicted Rove & Libby

It was others like you that predicted Bush, others that think analysis is all that is needed for results.

and let the people take power but now what can we do? Some analysis is necessary but we have to know where to strike the fascists. Occupy their dopey radio stations. If I lay awake long enough tonight I might come up with more stuff.

are so frustrated and why flame wars so easy for the freeps.

We know the evil, every evil act uncovered is no surprise.

WE NEED ACTION - folks to really be involved in the upcoming elections. We need to pressure those in office to do what is right, to hold the repukes and the admin to the law.

If you do a search you will see your suggestions have been made and the analysis had. It is time for involvement, not just opinions.

Some of these go back to 2004, though. Not all of them are examples of wishful thinking, but they're all examples of spurious nonsense:

1) There will be another terrorist attack on American soil to magically push up Bush's ratings.

2) Osama will be pulled out of deep thaw and paraded down Pennsylvania Avenue in time for the election.

3) The US will invade Iran (thanks, Scott Ritter) or Syria or Canada or Venezuela or Grenada (again - just for the hell of it.)

4) Patrick Fitzgerald will indict everyone from Bush on down to some 3rd tier wanker at Treasury in the Plame affair.

5) Bush will nominate Gonzalez / Ashcroft to USSC.

I could go on...

you can't use that one because an indictment did come, and it was Libby and Rove (Rove's is pending)which was called on DU before the press got a hold of it.

And let me say for the record that I despise the term "Fitzmas" because I think it trivializes and politicizes an extremely important event to an unacceptable extent. There were a great many people here who were convinced that:

a) Fitzgerald might charge Rove/Cheney/Others with treason. I repeatedly explained to people why the treason statute isn't relevant in this case, but they were having none of it, and I was shouted down as being a freeper. I don't see any treason indictments forthcoming.

b) Fitzgerald was going to charge the whole damn crew with something.

I bring this up because, as I said at the beginning, I think it trivializes the investigation and attempts to make it play out like a made-for-TV movie where the bad guys get dragged away in handcuffs at the same time in the last reel. That's not how it works. That's not how it's ever going to work. And pretending that it does work that way is counterproductive. I've stopped reading most of those threads (and those of their ilk) as they now do nothing but give me a severe headache.

but the HOUR of FOREtelling has yet to arrive. The Moon is New at 9 Caprcicorn 32 on Friday Dec. 30 at 10:13 PM EST. The fOrcEs shaLL doubtleSS have aTTaineD aPProPriate koZmiQue MoMentum by the eVe of the nEw yeAr.

Then the Mighty Mighty Oracle Beans may belch forth metaphoriC utterances & dEsiGns pertaining to the subject of hUmanKindS 2oo6 ulTiMatE rezdeVouS witH dEstinY.

ok that was funny

thanks for the laugh

;-)

I did not see anyone that predicted Bush would be impeached by the end of the year. The draft talk was in 2002-2003, and the Rush talk is also ancient history. I think you're trying to cook up an urban myth here.

It may have been earlier too, but the 2004 DU pundits were posting that he would bring the draft back in 2005.

And there were lots of thread predicting that the election would not be held, that Bush would not show up for the debates, etc. But those were 2004.

I've always fired employees who were consistantly too negative.

If the employee's complaint is shown to be correct, and a hazard to your company, then perhaps that employee should have been more listened to.

I am enjoying a moment of saying, "I told you so." And I did post at the time that there would be no draft, that Rush would not go to jail or off the air, etc.

Many have predicted here that Bush will be impeached in 2006. I predict that he won't. Not let's see who is correct.

I don't imagine anyone here is interested.

But you can't make progress living in a fantasy.

We have to take your word for it that all these things were predicted and that you were right and we were wrong. Very Bushian.

i personally see very little grace in "i told you so" for a few, painting the board as participants. recently i sat down and explained to my sons, for me it is more important being a good and gracious winner than even being a good loser

i dont predict. and i dont like it implied that we as a group do this, and you are so much above and beyond all the rest of us.

i have seen your posts in other areas too. very condescending to your fellow posters.

so gloat and be full of glee, it IS unfortunate none of these things happened when we have such lying, cheating, stealing, corrupt thugs running our country, isn't it? it is a sad commentary of our nation, and we the people.

i dont think i feel glee for the losers that predicted incorrectly. i think i feel more disgust for the people that weren't outraged, and didn't fight for these things to happened, and allowed them to be swept away

Anyway I agree with you.

yes i was talking to the op.

You say you enjoy that so many were wrong that Rush isn't in jail. Or am I missing something?

Good team players find a way to tell you problems without dragging down the team.

One of my favorite firings was when I fired this freeper who was supposed to quit before he had a chance to quit. Out of pride, he begged for the job back that he was rumored to be quitting. It was funny. The freepertype was always saying racist stuff and I had a chance to replace him with a Brazilian guy who was a joy to work with. It was great to replace him with a Bush hating man of the world. Unfortunately he had health issues and had to cut back on work. We now have a young Honduran gentleman who is also a joy to work with. I doubt I'll ever hire a white southern male unless they're a bonafide liberal.

you claim I root for the dark side? No, I just don't go in for fantasy, outside of entertainment.
Fantasy and politics make a very poor stew.

Why don't you predict something bad happening to the repuKKKes? Or is it not in you heart?

Bush spent his so-called political capital picking the stupid Social Security fight. After that he couldn't move on any of these other issues and he dropped so badly in the polls he couldn't make a single move he wanted to.

The draft may have been bantered about but I truly think it's not for Iraq, it's for Iran which the Neo-cons still are trying to pursue a war on. If he had wanted to initiate he'd have to wait until things went well enough in Iraq to justify Iran and seriously I don't think they anticipated Iraq still being this rough for them, nor the turn of public sentiment against it.

Nobody thought impeachment was possible and if the wiretap scandal is to take us in that road the earliest we'll even get a serious look at it is with the 2007 Congress should we take back both houses.

Bush didn't produce Osama right before the elections in person, but a mysterious tape sure showed up to tip the scales. And he needs Osama on the run to keep the myth of the war on terror alive, without it he can't justify subverting civil liberties and human rights the way he does to spy on political enemies and such. You also have to realize that these guys have Diebold and Sequoia in their pockets so they felt comfortable with the pre-determined election results.

I think a lot of people were pretty right about the beginning of the demise of this administration. Instead of nitpicking we should be commended for predicting the tip of the corruption iceberg that was sinking this titanic of an administration.

Rp

The troops on the ground are stretched too thin, and we would not be able to occupy all three countries at one time. We just don't have the manpower. And he will not bring back the draft.

Air strikes against Iran are a possibility, but I don't think he will do even that. The nuke sites are too well fortified, even against a bunker buster nuke to be sure of taking them out.

As long as Iran does nothing but bluster, I don't see anything happening. However, if Iran does something stupid and attacks, then all hell will break loose, short of nukes.

and western Afghanistan in not much more time. These neoCONS want a big war and would lose a few battles to build up to a big war. A war takes all the investigations and politics off the table and re cranks up the terror campaign. I hope I'm wrong but I'm usually right about these neoCONS and their evil ambitions.

By "they" do you mean the neocons or the Iranians. Not trying to ridicule you this time. Just need to know exactly what you mean.

I stand by my statement that the neocons will not start something with Iran. They may be evil, but they aren't stupid.

Some who was actually following what's going on over there would have known who "they" was.

You used a third person pronoun without an antecedent for the pronoun. I had to ask who you were talking about. To infer it would have been a assumption with the possibility of putting words in your mouth. Better to ask what you meant.

To got to war with Iran would be extremely risky for the Neocons, therefore I do not think they would want to do it. We could easily defeat Iranian conventional forces, but the unconventional forces would be too much to deal with. And the Neocons know that. Neocons may be evil, but they aren't stupid.

One thing that's always predictable is that the US will lead all industrialized nations on a per capita basis in gun crimes. children killed by guns and murders. This year, I wonder if we we will go over $150 billion in damages next year.

I know lots of stupid neoCONS, they're called NRA members. Hey, who needs gun registration when the bush crime family can just invade your privacy without a court order, just like Hitler.

You always get spanked.:spank: BTW, when is that 2nd amendment ever going to kick in to save our rights?

I know, you have a different negative agenda with this thread.

either from the U.S. or from Israel.

I think bombing Iran is a safe 2006 prediction.

to the predictions that never came to be.

.....We were supposed to be in Iran in June

......The draft was a biggie

This is a good thread because it points out the error of our ways or even the victory that somehow me may have broght about.

It would be good to keep track of all of the "predictions" for 2006 and if need be, track it for the people with selective memories.

The type of predictions that I will be tracking will be the obviously ridiculous ones, not predictions that are actually based on thought and logic.

have happened since Bush would have been possible? Nothing, to me at least, is absurd.

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

in my life. The "just in time to say I told you so" is so off the mark that it would be laughable if it weren't so maddening to see how many people make "snide" remarks and major assumptions based on nothing but their own bad attitudes.

3.They will not get out of Iraq - no matter what
4.They'll steal the 2004 election like they did 2000 and 2002
5.The press will cover for W no matter how outrageous his offenses will be
6. The warmania will die out and people will want it to be over already
These were some of mine (as well as many others here)

An actual prediction, and I was correct. Katrina turned out to be the tipping point for Bush. He has not recovered.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=4483423

*edit* note the date - it's the day before Katrina hit.

More from me : kerry will never fight for his win
Michael Moore's movie will create a momentum
The COW (coalition of the willing) will turn to dust soon enough
There'll be no coverage of Afghanistan - in spite of problems there
They'll never catch OBL (right after reading they refused the offer to get him if no war)
 
New offer on Bin Laden
http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,575593,00.html
Minister makes secret trip to offer trial in third country

The RNC convention was set in NYC for the terra, terra, terra effect - which will be carried throughout
Bloomberg will end up spending over $100 per vote
There'll be a transit strike this time - got proof for this one:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=169x4954

Let's take a look at you OBL one. I don't think he will be found in 2006 either. However, look at the posts before the election and you will find many who were saying the OBL was in a hidden jail and they were going to "catch" him just before the election.

There were many posts that Bush would cancel the elections.

There were many posts that Bush would not show up for the debates.

There were precitions of Martial Law. Still lots of those.

Those are the type of wild-eye irrational predictions that I am taking issue with. And if you post in one of those threads rational reason why the prediction just won't come true, you get ridiculed and flamed.

Thoughtful rational specualtion based on evidence is a different thing entirely.

as per their credo:


''We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And
while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll
act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and
that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you,
all of you, will be left to just study what we do.''
Bush aide to Ron Suskind

Also, W did try to avoid the debates as much as he could - but in the end, considering there wasn't going to be an actual election, he decided he didn't have anything to lose.

A lot of OBL rumors were peddled in the media. Right before the election, when a very damaging story about stolen unguarded explosives in Iraq emerged, an OBL tape conveniently popped up. here's what the GOP strategists let out:


http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/247753p-212149c....
See tape as boost for Prez
We want people to think 'terrorism' for the last four days," said a Bush-Cheney campaign official. "And anything that raises the issue in people's minds is good for us."
A senior GOP strategist added, "anything that makes people nervous about their personal safety helps Bush."
He called it "a little gift," saying it helps the President but doesn't guarantee his reelection.

As for Martial law - let's see - we are all under surveillance and can be disappeared without a warrant.

The way I see it it's only a matter of nuance. I suggest you redefine for yourself that solid barrier between "rational" and "irrational" I don't see a basis for you to be so judgemental with the entire DU. Considering we are over 80,000 people, it's your attitude that I find irrational. You are carrying a straw man argument to try to insult 80,000 people who are very different from one another. maybe the problem is not with the village.

no doubt solid analysis of those will move us forward.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=2811081

For the skeptical, I'll note that in this rather short thread that I just scanned, I saw three mentions of a draft.

What's also interesting is that some of these did come true, or close to true, particularly with regard to the price of oil/gas.

On the draft specifically:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=2746176

I found a dozen or so threads specifically related to the draft within the one-month time frame I searched, Nov-Dec, 2004.

and still hasn't

Just saying, hard to change the world when only vague theaters will show your film.

:eyes:

I wouldn't pin your hopes on "Syriana," either.

and DU is still on the Internet

...in concentration camps, and shut down DU.

charges. This is the way the GOP does business.

some of that research and have shown some links - especially about the draft that Bush was supposed to start in 2005.

with your claims. Like I said you sound like a GOP shill.

I'm here most every day and read all kinds of stuff from trolls, thugs, nit-wits, half-wits, dim-wits, vipers, con-men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, buggerers, bush-whackers, DeLay lovers, bull-dykes, cpu-robbers, disrupter's, ass-kickers, shit-kickers, and lovers of Jesus!

still going

I am more of a lurker than a poster, but I read DU almost daily. There is a chance that I may have missed a few things on your list. That being said, I have seen little evidence for your claims. Do you have any specific links to back them up? Thank you.

Paul lists the things that in the last year have changed. My favorite is, "A year ago, most Americans thought Mr. Bush was honest."

<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2339026>

that while personally trolling around watching the trolls on their own turf, that this is a major topic to them. Possibly to give themselves a false sense of security that their beloved leader really isn't gonna go down while poking fun at the ones who were right all along. It's kind of a twisted game, you know?
:popcorn:

Or are you just supposed to take their word for it? So Bushian!

:popcorn:
Who needs stinking evidence? You are talking about the Jethroes.

so my perdiction didn't come true, thank God

Such as the Dollar collapsing against the Euro. It came mighty close, and likely will continue in 2006, but I was certain it would take some unheard of gigantic hit in 2005.

Also I was fairly certain that the RE Bubble would go BANG! this year, wait till 2006.

Also my long hoped for Socialist Revolution...Not this year but I didn't think it would anyway...We're shooting for 2010...

Many Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries have begun to increase the proportion of euro in international settlements. Russia is supposed to as well.

A weaker dollar puts increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates because America has to continue to attract huge amounts of foreign capital to float its debt. This is bad news for the American consumer.

got any solid analysis to show for?

That didn't happen. They're still here.

but this post doesn't pass the smell test to my nose.

I'd hate to live in a society where citizens could not talk about and analyze certain theories without being ridiculed. This post at DU really stunned me! Is having an open mind discouraged here?

It's ALWAYS safe to be a Monday morning quarterback, eh?

but don't say ANYTHING negative about the establishment, especially if it's true :evilgrin:

peace

i also predict that 'solid analysis' won't count for squat as long is the neoCONs are in power and M$M bought off.

thats why we all come here, aren't you/we lucky!

thank GORE he 'invented' the INTERNETs :bounce:

psst... pass the word ;->

peace

Perhaps that is the message of this thread.

nuclear war or massive economic depression.

:(