Holy crap! You guys have to check this out. Article: "Closing the 'Collapse Gap':..."

http://energybulletin.net/23259.html

"Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for peak oil than the US" by Dmitry Orlov.

Remember when the USSR collapsed? It got pretty bad.

This writer of this article was in Russia at that time and now lives in the US.

Here he compares the readiness for collapse of the US now vs. the USSR then. If you don't accept the premise of the possibility of a collapse here, then you should certainly start reading about Peak Oil and the impending global economic crisis (for starters).

The article is difficult to reproduce here because it is comes from a speech and uses slides. I would suggest you first check out some of slides (they're beige colored), particularly the ones with the Soviet and US flags.

The US in a much worse condition to deal with an economic collapse than the USSR was.

We, the people, are so VERY screwed!

The cost of that war led to their collapse..not Raygun's magic, as some freepers like to claim.
Our involvement in a similar conflict in the same area may very well lead the US to the same end.

I had just posted such an idea during a discussion of Raygun.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=1024986&mesg_id=1027034

The USSR's involvement in Afghanistan was just the straw that broke the camel's back; years of excessive defense spending led to their economic collapse. Our defense spending (up from $150B per year to $1000B during Bushco) might have a similar effect. The peak oil aspect of his argument is interesting, particularly in light of our refusal to deal with it. Should be fun.

and sadly...seem unwilling to do what is needed to avoid the same end.

childhood....

The seeds of energy independance, green industries, and alternative fuels should have been planted decades ago..... for this we may suffer what the seeds of greed and complacency bring forth.

One day as the Little Red Hen was scratching in a field, she found a grain of wheat.

"This wheat should be planted," she said. "Who will plant this grain of wheat?"

"Not I," said the Duck.

"Not I," said the Cat.

"Not I," said the Dog.

"Then I will," said the Little Red Hen. And she did.

Soon the wheat grew to be tall and yellow.

"The wheat is ripe," said the Little Red Hen. "Who will cut the wheat?"

"Not I," said the Duck.

"Not I," said the Cat.

"Not I," said the Dog.

"Then I will," said the Little Red Hen. And she did.

When the wheat was cut, the Little Red Hen said, "Who will thresh the wheat?"

"Not I," said the Duck.

"Not I," said the Cat.

"Not I," said the Dog.

"Then I will," said the Little Red Hen. And she did.

When the wheat was threshed, the Little Red Hen said, "Who will take this wheat to the mill?"

"Not I," said the Duck.

"Not I," said the Cat.

"Not I," said the Dog.

"Then I will," said the Little Red Hen. And she did.

She took the wheat to the mill and had it ground into flour. Then she said, "Who will make this flour into bread?"

"Not I," said the Duck.

"Not I," said the Cat.

"Not I," said the Dog.

"Then I will," said the Little Red Hen. And she did.

She made and baked the bread. Then she said, "Who will eat this bread?"

"Oh! I will," said the Duck.

"And I will," said the Cat.

"And I will," said the Dog.

"No, No!" said the Little Red Hen. "I will do that." And she did.

kid, and my mom and dad would read that to me...And as usual, their is a grand lesson to be learned...:D

I was talking to a man from Shanghai about a year ago who said the whole mania surrounding Stupid and his blindly loyal followers was exactly like the cult of personality that led to the Cultural Revolution. He didn't think it was likely to happen here because it wasn't widespread enough (and is far less likely now with so many awakened).

I've also talked with Russians who went through the collapse, and they've all said the same thing, that the parallels are eerie and frightening.

Only an ignorant conservative can afford to be relentlessly sunny and optimistic these days. The rest of us us know something is coming and that it is not likely to be much fun.

I just bookmarked that, thanks.

suckered them into Afghanistan

http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/BRZ110A.html

Q: Despite this risk, you were an advocate of this covert action. But perhaps you yourself desired this Soviet entry into war and looked to provoke it?

B: It isn't quite that. We didn't push the Russians to intervene, but we knowingly increased the probability that they would.

Q: When the Soviets justified their intervention by asserting that they intended to fight against a secret involvement of the United States in Afghanistan, people didn't believe them. However, there was a basis of truth. You don't regret anything today?

B: Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it? The day that the Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote to President Carter. We now have the opportunity of giving to the USSR its Vietnam war. Indeed, for almost 10 years, Moscow had to carry on a war unsupportable by the government, a conflict that brought about the demoralization and finally the breakup of the Soviet empire.

Q: And neither do you regret having supported the Islamic fundamentalism, having given arms and advice to future terrorists?

B: What is most important to the history of the world? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire? Some stirred-up Moslems or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war?



I wonder Zbigniew, I really wonder

In USSR housing was gov't owned, after collapse people still had homes. in the US your bank or landlord will throw your ass out on the street in a heartbeat if/when you aren't able to pay.

Industry in the USSR was gov't owned, so when collapse came people were able to keep their jobs much longer than will be the case here.

USSR manufactured basically everything they needed. US imports basically everything. what happens when it becomes too expensive to import or to afford imported goods?

USSR maintained huge quantities of manufactured goods (goods that were made to last (I gather)). Here everything is done on a just in time basis. Manufacturers don't maintain large inventories (and our goods are crap). What happens when suddenly everybody wants to plant a garden and there are shortages of the tools needed?

USSR - gov't owned public transportation and few private autos. US - very poor public transportation. When the job or petroleum is gone people will be stuck.

etc.

we do have plenty of buildings and houses in this country, so once collapse really sets in and the banks don't have anyone to sell houses to, they can be re-entered by pretty much anyone who will want to live in them. So homelessness will be a temporary problem, I think.

Of course, they won't have heat or A/C or electricity, but it will be a roof over your head, which is better than nothing.

My main quandary is related to the becoming self-sufficient aspect. Assume I have a home, and land to grow food on, etc. - how I do keep a roviong gang of hngry people from wandering onto the land and taking all the produce, etc.

Survivng the first year or so of collapse will be tricky, I think after that it gets easier in many ways.

I've noticed more commercial/residential hybrid neighborhoods being developed. A logical development; people won't have to drive.

And the internet allows for telecommuting. I don't think electricity will be going away any time soon.

This commercial/residential hybrid thing is very rare, unfortunately. Just yesterday I passed by a new batch of cheap ass mcmansions going up near me. NOW, at this late date, with the housing bubble just getting started. Unbelievable!

There ought to be an immediate end to any housing that, at the very least, doesn't take into account its orientation to the sun. Passive solar will be extremely important in days soon to come.

Yes, electricity will be around for a quite a while yet, but if we don't have jobs to pay for that electricity....

I figure one of the first effects of Peak will be large scale unemployment.

that nobody knows what will or will not happen.

Your post seems mostly focused on collapse-due-to-oil shortages. That's one possibility, economic collapse is a different possibility; telecommuting won't be very attractive if the wage is $30 per hour but a loaf of bread costs $20, with other food procing relative to those same costs as well.

As a nation, we have an awful lot of debt that will come due sooner or later.

calamity for the past 18 months. What that calamity is, is not apparent, but I think that whatever it is, it is a force that will need to be reckoned with and we will be in the depths for quite some time.

While I am not trying to be some seer, what ever is coming down, it will indeed be catastrophic. Looking at the history of bush, and since everything he has touched has turned to crap...I can see no reason why this nation should be the exception.

Perhaps there is a correcting force in nature that allows for these types of things, but w/the case of humanity...we cause our own disasters, allow them to happen, even though the warnings signs slap us upside the face...

everyone is saying something's not right. Many of us feel it. Things have gone very, very wrong lately. And as hard as Bush tries, this, whatever it is, is way bigger than him.

I get the distinct impression he is just taking this great nation into hell. Whether he is doing this on purpose or through some of the most ignorant data anyone has ever received is up for grabs. But I tend to believe that he is just so arrogant, so damn stupid and so misguided, that he world take this earth straight to the gates of hell and dare to be called on it.

I am worried that through his incredible delusion, actually through his lack of sanity that I can see, that he will attempt a nuclear strike if he thinks he can possibly find a way to justify it. I am hoping that cooler heads prevail, and this little man in a big man's suit, can be reigned in.

The author presents a well-thought and comprehensive case. In one of his slides, he shows that both pre-collapse USSR and US were beset with large foreign debt. I don't think, however that the USSR had much debt; I doubt that anyone in the West was willing to lend it to them. The US' foreign debt presents an interesting twist. The world economy is so dependent on our consumerism and ability to repay debt that I don't think they'll pull the plug on us with glee, as they did with the USSR. Rather, you'll probably see the UN/NATO/EU/China exerting influence on how we behave (much like a creditors' committee in bankruptcy procedures), and the possibility of a xenophobic, even more fascist government coming into power in the US in order to circumvent such foreign interference.

the situation is reversed: we are powerful because of our debt. We are simply too big (and consume too much of the world's products) to be allowed to fail. If we fail, we drag the whole world down with us.

Will it save us? Who knows. Bush and company certainly appear to think so.

Personally, I think it's better that we do fail. For many reasons, but primarily because it's either us or the planet. We are literally killing the earth.

My loyalties lie with earth, and not with its unfortunate infestation of big-brained imbeciles.

Great article from Dmitry Orlov. I actually came to many similar conclusion as him, and have been preparing for an economic and political collapse in the U.S. An economic collapse will cause unbelievable social and political problems in the U.S. People tend to look back at the Great Depression and not see how perilously close the U.S. was to falling to some sort of fascist or communist leadership. The U.S. was lucky it had a generation of great political leaders to pull the U.S. out of the depression. This time around, I do not know if the leadership will be there.

I like his theories on housing and families. Orlov is accurate in noting the loneliness in this country. Compared to Russian society, the U.S. is very displaced. The U.S. has a history of praising individualism and "pulling yourself up by your bootstrap" but these concepts are not appropriate for a society when it falls under the chaos of economic collapse. Also, the housing situation in U.S. is precarious. I doubt that people will all be forced out of their homes and moving into refugee camps in cities though. If anything I foresee some sort of radicalization of the Middle Class and a right-wing led movement to protect homes from banks/government taking them. The much vaunted U.S. value for property rights might morph into some sort of community-property rights, where groups of armed Americans will take over entire suburban neighborhoods and re-distribute or take over housing.

Orlov also mentions how Americans are used to getting their food ready-made at supermarkets or take out restaurants, whereas Russians had to find their own ingenious ways to feed themselves because of Soviet food distribution inefficiency. I wonder what will happen to the massive corporate farms in the even of an economic collapse. Small farmers are basically bought out of the market, and people might take actions against these farms if they feel some sort of unfairness in the pricing of food. (Think of our anger about gas prices vocalized against Gas companies, but multiplied by the growing ache of hunger)

Also education is a big deal. The last 50 years has seen an explosion in higher education in the U.S., creating a class of degree holders who feel entitled to white collar jobs, when in reality these jobs aren't always available. (This topic was dealt with nicely on another DU thread about the kid who had a finance degree and couldn't find a job) Well this complaint will be multiplied million-fold in case of an economic crisis.

:hi:

Interesting thoughts on housing; I wouldn't restrict your idea to right-wing led movements, but expand it to balkanized movements, not entirely dissimilar to the way gangs wield a measure of control over certain areas of cities. Just expand and meld the two ideas to most of the country.

As for corporate farms, given the necessity of food, they will probably be one of the last industries to fail, if indeed they fail at all; they would likely <I'm sure there's a tidy word for the corproate idea, but I'm not thinking of it> develop/procure a security force of sufficient size and armaments to quell rag-tags bands of hungry people trying to reclaim the corporate-owned land for their own benefit. Feeding the security force would be an acceptable non-monetary exchange.

I live in a suburb (of a sort), and everyone is saying that the burbs will become ghost towns. I'm not absolutely sure about that myself.

I have a large yard that could grow enough food to feed myself and several others if necessary. I plan to put in fruit and nut trees soon. There is a creek nearby where I can get water if it get's that bad.

Basically, the bases are covered.

BUT, this one just occured to me yesterday: what about fuel?

If there's no electricity, that means cooking and heating with wood. This puts a major crimp in the survival situation of not just me personally but everyone in general.

I'm convinced that Peak Oil will mean short term disaster. I have no doubt it's coming. I think it would behoove us all to start thinking about how we would survive without resources. Maybe crazy, maybe not. Better safe.

Where will you get your firewood, your water; to say nothing of food?

we are not the same as the soviet union. Not even close. So, problems that caused their collapse may not have the effect here.
That being said, we are still in deep shit, even if it doesn't mean the collapse of our country.