http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/003673.phpWelcome Back to Summer 2001
By Spencer Ackerman - July 12, 2007, 3:45 PM
According to practically every available intelligence report, the summer of 2007 is eerily similar to the summer of 2001: numerous, compounding threats, without specificity, emanating from a souped-up al-Qaeda with save haven in South Asia.
In the summer of 2001, with voluminous intelligence chatter indicating an al-Qaeda attack on the U.S. somewhere, White House counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke and CIA Director George Tenet had their "hair on fire," in the memorable words of the 9/11 Commission, trying to raise the issue with a preoccupied Bush administration. Now, with a new intelligence report circulating, titled "Al-Qaida Better Positioned to Strike the West," Clarke writes for ABC News that it's feeling a lot like summer 2001: al-Qaeda, seeking European Muslims for use as jihadist operatives, is planning something, though it's not clear what or where. Clarke calls this "a disturbance in the Force." What to do? Clarke on his 2001 actions:
I ordered counterterrorism units to cancel leaves and directed FAA, FBI and other domestic agencies to send out warnings.
Overseas, we urged DOD to put its bases on high Defense Condition status and to move ships from vulnerable harbors in the Middle East. State Department embassies were directed to go on heightened security status.
None of this, of course, was enough to prevent 9/11. But none of it seems to be happening now. White House spokesman Tony Fratto noted that "There continues to be no credible, specific intelligence to suggest that there is an imminent threat to the homeland." Still, the Bush administration could do worse than, say, increasing security at nuclear and chemical sites, expanding (legal) surveillance of suspected jihadist assets -- you can do this all under FISA, remember -- and bringing law enforcement closer into the intelligence loop, for starters.
The strategic problem is Pakistan, where intelligence over the past year has indicated that the old al-Qaeda leadership is reconstituting a measure of centralized authority, taking money and recruits from franchisees and affiliates and using them in tribal areas where Gen. Pervez Musharraf fears to tread. Nearly six years after 9/11, and the U.S. again faces a situation where the danger from al-Qaeda is clear but invading its territory is politically difficult, if not impossible. Musharraf has a temporary boost in his political fortunes after crushing the jihadist rebels at the Red Mosque this week. Perhaps the best short-term option the administration has is to get Musharraf -- probably with the support of U.S. intelligence and Special Forces -- to break a truce he signed in 2006 with tribal leaders in lawless Waziristan Province, so his forces can go after the increasingly powerful al-Qaeda remnant finding refuge there. If that safe haven remains, the summer of 2001 is going to recur again and again -- until another 9/11 finally follows it.
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