the latest NIE can be found here:

Key Judgments
We judge the US Homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next
three years. The main threat comes from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially al-
Qa’ida, driven by their undiminished intent to attack the Homeland and a continued effort by
these terrorist groups to adapt and improve their capabilities.

We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years
have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led
terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These
measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11.

• We are concerned, however, that this level of international cooperation may wane as
9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge.

Al-Qa’ida is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central
leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni
communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities. We assess the group has
protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a
safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational
lieutenants, and its top leadership. Although we have discovered only a handful of
individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qa’ida senior leadership since 9/11, we judge
that al-Qa’ida will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.

• As a result, we judge that the United States currently is in a heightened threat
environment.

We assess that al-Qa’ida will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the Homeland
through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups. Of note, we assess that al-Qa’ida
will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI), its
most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack
the Homeland. In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al-Qa’ida to
energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and
indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attacks.

We assess that al-Qa’ida’s Homeland plotting is likely to continue to focus on prominent
political, economic, and infrastructure targets with the goal of producing mass casualties,
visually dramatic destruction, significant economic aftershocks, and/or fear among the US
population. The group is proficient with conventional small arms and improvised explosive
devices, and is innovative in creating new capabilities and overcoming security obstacles.

• We assess that al-Qa’ida will continue to try to acquire and employ chemical,
biological, radiological, or nuclear material in attacks and would not hesitate to use
them if it develops what it deems is sufficient capability.

We assess Lebanese Hizballah, which has conducted anti-US attacks outside the United
States in the past, may be more likely to consider attacking the Homeland over the next three
years if it perceives the United States as posing a direct threat to the group or Iran.

We assess that the spread of radical—especially Salafi—Internet sites, increasingly
aggressive anti-US rhetoric and actions, and the growing number of radical, self-generating
cells in Western countries indicate that the radical and violent segment of the West’s Muslim
population is expanding, including in the United States. The arrest and prosecution by US
law enforcement of a small number of violent Islamic extremists inside the United States—
who are becoming more connected ideologically, virtually, and/or in a physical sense to the
global extremist movement—points to the possibility that others may become sufficiently
radicalized that they will view the use of violence here as legitimate. We assess that this
internal Muslim terrorist threat is not likely to be as severe as it is in Europe, however.

We assess that other, non-Muslim terrorist groups—often referred to as “single-issue” groups
by the FBI—probably will conduct attacks over the next three years given their violent
histories, but we assess this violence is likely to be on a small scale.

We assess that globalization trends and recent technological advances will continue to enable
even small numbers of alienated people to find and connect with one another, justify and
intensify their anger, and mobilize resources to attack—all without requiring a centralized
terrorist organization, training camp, or leader.

• The ability to detect broader and more diverse terrorist plotting in this environment
will challenge current US defensive efforts and the tools we use to detect and disrupt
plots. It will also require greater understanding of how suspect activities at the local
level relate to strategic threat information and how best to identify indicators of
terrorist activity in the midst of legitimate interactions.