Fear Of Fred Thompson

For those of you who fear a "Fred Thompson" candidacy all I can tell you America has changed... Hispanics and African Americans make up nearly thirty percent of the American population, though they do not yet vote in numbers to match their percentage of the population. The Republicans have alienated both of those communities...If you do the math and the Democrats get ninety percent of the African American vote and seventy percent of the Hispanic vote they need to get little more than thirty percent of the Caucasian vote to win... The old calculus used to be the Democrats only needed to get about forty percent of the Caucasian vote to win... But I suspect the growing mistrust of the Republican party by our Hispanic brothers and sisters will change that calculus...

Fred Thompson might have been a good candidate if this was 1970 or even 1980 but it isn't...

I suspect the 08 presidential race will still be close and will resemble the 00 and 04 races but it will not be a clone... I suspect the Republicans will sweep Dixie but Florida will be hotly contested...I think they will also do well where they always do well- Nebraska, the Dakotas, Utah, Alaska, Wyoming, etcetera... The big difference is I can see New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado going Democratic... This is more than enough to swing the election...

I use to "fear" Fred Thompson's good old boy persona but it doesn't play well outside of Dixie and rural America...

I'm not fearful...

...not some goofy "aw shucks" yokel. We've had 6 years of that already.:thumbsdown:

Just not in enough parts to win the presidency...

... but I still maintain that out of the current field of Rep hopefuls, he's the one to be concerned about.

Are you forgetting the even more red Plains states? Are you forgetting ALL of the fly-over states?

I could buy that we'd get New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado - and I'll throw in Virginia and Arkansas - IF we had a candidate that would appeal to the swing vote Bubbas. But we don't. Bill Clinton did. Hell, Jimmy Carter did the first time around.

Yes, a growing number of Hispanics and black people are voting, but, guess what, they STILL don't vote in the numbers white males do. Factor in their wives who may or may not vote for who their husbands do and you've got a problem. I don't know why they still vote more than other groups - and that's a topic for another thread - but it's still a fact.

Hispanics will vote seventy percent Democratic...

That means the Republicans have to get nearly seven out of ten Caucasian votes to win... Seven out of ten... That seems like a mountain too high...

I don't see any Democrat losing the states we carried in 00 and 04... That's about 250 to 260 electoral votes... There are a lot of states to choose from in 08 to find ten to twenty more... I think most of our candidates can do that...

Maybe Dixie and rural America hasn't changed yet but the rest of the nation has...

The "rest" of America still has the same news we do here in the South. The same corporate media. The same media that will make Fred Thompson seem sage, whilst making the Democratic candidate seem "loony."

And, if HRC is the nominee, I can see us losing Pennsylvania and Michigan. I'm not writing them off, yet, but it's not beyond the realm of imagination.

He's the courtly southern gentleman archetype that I see on Law And Order (my favorite show) every night...

The Republicans are swimming against a demographic riptide...You can not be a majority party when you are not competetive with thirty percent of the population....


I'll spot the Republicans every southern state plus Ohio, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Utah, Indiana, Wyoming, and Alaska and still beat em...

his term would be up?

How

I just think the political climate in 08 favors Democrats as well as America's changing demographics...