Let's say we pull the troops our of Iraq next week. What happens then?

Will Turkey invade northern Iraq? They have been pretty good about not going after the Kurds so far, but we've had a lot to do with that.

Will Iran invade Iraq? There's a lot at stake. Whoever takes control of Iraq takes control of the second largest oil reserve in the world.

Will Iraq's leaders settle the dispute between the Shiites, the Kurds and the Sunnis peacefully? Will they divide the country into three nations based on religion?

Realistically, if we were to pull out asap what happens?



Liberal bumper stickers

would be left to figure out their own fucking problems without the US selling itself to China to cover our debt.

that area is very secure and we can't afford to lose control off it. This wouldn't cost us much in american life and shouldn't cost us much money wise.

Second as every general has said there is no way in hell that you could pull out that quickly, it would probably take up to a year. Once you pull out the country will probably go in to civil war and stay that way for a long time. But this is bound to happen anyway, the longer we stay in there the longer we are simply putting it off as we will eventually have to get out of there. I don't know much about Vietnam but it will probably be very similar to what happened there.

And this is all based on my personal opinion, generals that aren't ass kissing this administration could tell you exactly what would happen and how we should get out of there.

but, we'LL onLy puLL out once we have controL of it.

turkey couLd invade, but iran won't. and turkey won't stay.

is that what you're reaLLy concerned about? what happens to their naturaL resources?

What I'm saying is it's a big incentive for other countries to fill the gap when we leave.



Liberal bumper stickers

they'LL go through what we're going through, and what the soviets went through in afganistan, etc....

that was our incentive to go in.

Either way, the violence continues (they don't want us there).

:cry:

mass hysteria!!!

Thanks for the well-thought out response.



Liberal bumper stickers

just look at the ME for the past 6000 years. What has been happening in that region since the dawn of civilization, through the creation of Islam, to the modern era?

It doesn't take a fucking rocket scientist to figure out that inter/intra-sectarian and international conflict has been and will be THE defining feature of Middle Eastern civilization including and especially after the US decides to pull out.

It was also internally peaceful under the Abbasids, 8th-13th century, except of course for the assorted crusader armies from Europe and then the mongols wrecking things in the 13th century.

The theory that the people of the middle east are incapable of anything other than perpetual sectarian warfare is a massive case of projection by europeans, who in fact have suffered through almost nothing but inter/intra-sectarian and international conflicts that they started, since the fall of Rome.

Syria too. I expect these next-door neighbors -- whose leaders have excellent relationships with Maliki (exiled in Syria for 28 years), Talibani and others in the new Iraqi regime -- to take on whatever defense the new Iraqi autocracy deems necessary. Who knows what will happen between the Kurds and Turkey? Iran doesn't like the Kurds either. Those relationships will not make for a ready ally in the Shiite-dominated government, but we could still give support to the Kurds without ground forces if that became our goal, like we did during Clinton's term with the no-fly zones.

I imagine Iran would not invade, but would try and maintain and preserve the friendly central authority with more overt support and protection.

I'm trying to get a picture of what people think will happen. Bush didn't have a plan going in and it would be nice if we at least thought about what the likely outcomes would be when we leave.



Liberal bumper stickers

or a peaceful split of the country into 3 parts. Nobody can say for sure but the one thing we can say is that America can't produce a stable government. What will happen will happen whether we leave tomorrow or ten years from now.

Hmm, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela? So many potential enemies, so little time left for the Bush Misadministration.

We already know they have WMD and would probably use them if pushed to do so.



Liberal bumper stickers

"Your Honor, I had to continue to car-jack the victim, I couldn't stop! You see, it would have been much worse if I had stopped committing this crime, because...well...the car owner just wasn't a good driver and might have wrecked the car; there are other car-jackers out there and they may have wanted to jack the car, so I had to stay in order to prevent those other car-jackers from doing it; once I was in possession of the car, it seemed unfair to the owner that I just stop and give her back her car, it would have been an awful disservice to her to just give her back the car, I was too humane for that! So you see, I really have to keep the car - not because I want to, but because of all the terrible things that might happen if I didn't. Thank you..."

I got an email from a friend last week that said:

I am on top of a mountain and that's where I am right now between Turkey and Kurdistan where they are shelling each other and we are in middle of it, but we are sending them warnings.

And more links that if Turkey goes into Northern Iraq after PKK then Iran may go in after PJAK.



Liberal bumper stickers

I suspect there will be no civil war, no mass killings,
and no canabalism (ha ha)....

They are not animals, they are more civilized than we are !

as "barbarians." It pissed a lot of people off. But think about it. We're the richest country in the world and we can't even provide healthcare for kids. We're the ones who are armed to the teeth and who have the highest homicide rate in the world.

I think there's a lot to be said for your statement that they're more civilized than we are.



Liberal bumper stickers

but your way guarantees it.

What's another 500 soldiers when you have a country to wrestle from those damn secular libruls?

The Sunnis would either be able to defend their towns and streets well enough to be left alone, or would be slaughtered and driven away from any valuable regions they occupied. The Kurds would possibly get bulldozed by Turkey's push towards Tikrit and Mosul's oil fields, but that probably won't happen because well-armed US contractors will be guarding that gold.

A strong-man will take power, one allied with Iran. Pogroms will purge the political ranks, and we'll all be back where we started, except that Iran will have doubled in size.

But that's all gonna happen anyway, sooner or later, so...

We've broken it and we can't fix it. How sad.



Liberal bumper stickers

we can speculate all we like, but we will never know until that day comes.
What is the alternative? Will we stay there forever? Will Iraq simply become another 'US' possession? If we stay on, the likelihood of that grows with every passing year. People already point to what we have invested so far, as a reason for continuing to 'invest'-

Leaving my marriage seemed like a total impossibility- all the "cant's" kept my kids and i stuck in a dangerous, destructive situation, for years. Understanding that we cannot control the way others think/feel/do is critical.

We stay in Iraq using force, and erecting barriers that are untenable in the long run, fooling ourselves into thinking that "we are making progress". The problem is, we have lost our perspective about what true progress really is. A good day in "hell" is still living in hell.

*(Pace told congress that even if we decided to leave asap, he could only predict one brigade a month)

We've got nothing to gain by long term occupations of countries. But how quickly can we get out and do we owe anything to Iraq for completely screwing up their country? At least they had electricity and running water before we invaded. Don't we at least owe them that?

electricity and running water, they had their illusions. The belief that they were 'relatively' safe. (even if not *free*- whatever that really means) They had upwards of 1,000,000 citizens alive, who are now dead. Their land wasn't absolutely filled with un-exploded ordinance, and depleted uranium. There was hunger and poverty, illness and suffering, but nothing like the scale which exists now.
The fundamentalist religious leaders did not 'rule' the country- Women had freedoms that will likely not return for a long time.

We owe the people of Iraq a debt that we can never pay. We violated them in a way that cannot be justified or defended. The damage to the physical structures of their country is something we 'should' attempt to rectify- but NOT by inserting corporations from the invading nation(s) who seek to suck even more out of this sorry country. The people of Iraq deserve to "profit" from the rebuilding of their country, NOT the US- or Britain, or any other 'western' corporate entity. To do otherwise is like the biblical 'justice' of forcing a woman to marry her rapist.-

We can attempt to make reparations from outside, with funds, goods and materials. We sure as hell shouldn't profit over the misery we have brought to what was a sovereign nation.

(at least in my very outraged opinion)-

for what that is worth. :eyes:

And very well-thought out.

How they do that is up to them, not us. Not our country, not our people, not our oil, and we have manifestly demonstrated that we are incapable of doing anything positive in the region.

My guess is that the Iraqis would actually manage to settle things in short order with limited violence. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan Turkey and Syria may have intentions, but may also be wary enough of the potential for things to escalate into regional conflict, that they will all stand back from direct intervention.

What we do know for sure is that more of the same hasn't worked and will continue to not work.

However, the OP answered his own question. It isn't the one he is looking for, but it really is the only one that matters.

There's a lot at stake. Whoever takes control of Iraq takes control of the second largest oil reserve in the world.

'We' will not be pulling 'our' troops out at all. Not in the foreseeable future anyway.

Our "help" has been less than helpful.