CIBC Economist: $100 Oil by End of '08

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071002/100_oil_outlook.html?.v=1

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices could top $100 a barrel by the end of next year and remain above that point for years to come, the chief economist of Canadian investment bank CIBC World Markets said Tuesday.



Jeffrey Rubin said rising demand within oil-rich nations such as Mexico, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia will put pressure on global oil prices in the coming years. That, combined with the increased cost of pulling petroleum from reserves deep under the sea or wringing it out of oil sands in Canada, will keep oil prices high even if demand in the Western world remains constant.

"We're in a world of triple digit oil prices for the foreseeable future," Rubin said during a speech to investors here.

Rubin said oil exports from OPEC countries, Russia and Mexico will likely decline by about 3 million barrels per day over the next five years. The biggest drop, he expects, will come from Mexico, a key U.S. supplier.

"Of the 3 million barrels, we're probably talking about 2 million barrels are going to come directly out of U.S. supplies," he said.

Rubin expects Mexican oil imports to the U.S. will dry up by about 2012. Some of that decline will be made up by imports from other parts of the world, but the lions' share -- nearly a third of all U.S. oil imports -- will come from Canadian oil sands, he predicted.

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gulp gulp gulp America

The trouble with extrapolating statistics is trying to add in random values to calculate.

I'm sure things will dry up, and we should prepare now, yadda yadda, but the worst may be longer away than thought.

Indeed, the fact every prediction has been off is fortuitous.

And with the increase in busing, hybrids, people bothering to walk, and so on, we can reduce our usage.

I'll gulp the news. And crap it out with the dinner I ate 2 nights ago. That's where pessimism belongs; in the toilet.