Almost certainly, Turkey will not wait long before it jumps off.

I don't like doing or making long posts - this is my first and last -

They have about twenty divisions sitting on the border for this movement, maybe a few more now (I think they use the old square division 10,000 PDV - Pershing like? ) so that would be about 200,000 (or more) in line to jump off, probably most will go in one wave. They have a powerful and large army - so I doubt they would hold back many reserve units from the boys they have on that border - it would not be too likely, given that they have much other force close by that could come in quickly. And they have a pretty good army, use american made equipment and have been trained in American tactics and have plenty of reserves and a modern air strike capability of at least generation f16 type fighters at their disposal. They are a formidible force, indeed.

They really can't wait too long to go - but understand they require an element of surprise and will have to give mixed messages about how long they will wait. But those are psyc ops issues. About three months ago we read on the Kurd reporting site that about 350 Turk sp ops people had snuck in - they were there to hunt targets down and pinpoint the best movements for them - so as to locate and knock down PKK units as quickly as possible. Information that has been gathered expecially now is worth less and less each day -- and I am sure the US isn't sharing info on this right now with them.

We will know pretty precisely when the fight is about to start you know - cause before they totally shut down their airspace, our airforce will get every meaningful plane we have at that Ankara base the hell out of there. We will know it is about to start that way - and then we will get the first real reports out of the kurdish newspaper sights.

And so you know, if this ends up in an Iraq vrs Turkey confrontation (and it probably will-see below) if we do not stand with Turkey - we lose immediately one of our most important airbases from the start of it. The pipline, air traffic, incoming supplies all will be shut off instantly.

You know obstensibly - Turkey, our NATO ally, is in theory just trying to nuetralize some rebel terrorists, the PKK. And that is not untrue. What they are not saying is that the general populace in all of Kurdistan, something more than 90% of the people believe in the aims - if not the means - of the PKK. They all think that Kurdistan is a rightfully free nation, and that nation should include the traditional tribal lands that exist in Turkey and ALSO IRAN. That is why the shelling into Kurdistan has almost always been coming from two directions (Turkey and Iran). You see, Turkey and Iran are in the same boat on this one.

So the really big question - that I am sure has been wargamed is - What do those more moderate Kurds do when they see a real invasion force coming at them? How long you think it will be before they pick up weapons and join their "brothers" especially given they hold the same core belief? Well, I think the answer is in and it is "NOT LONG". This is a very big reason why Turkey is trying to psych out the PKK or at least hide the date of a movement cause Turkey is hoping to catch them all in one shot so as not to allow time for a general rising of the population. Good luck to you Turkey - how you gonna do that unless you are prepared to go in and just wipe out whole villages on a suspicion. Guerilla wars do not go quickly - ever. You should have learned at least that from our experience.

ANd who will the United States back in the end anyway?? The Kurds are our only true ally in Iraq - gonna screw them - USA? And if you are trying to hold a country, north, east and west together - ie Iraq - how can you turn your head in the face of a land invasion of a primary state of Iraq - a primary state that holds ABOUT 2/3 THIRDS OF ALL THE KNOWN OIL RESERVES in the country!!! We are not going to turn our back on that much money, are we???

And then - the complications get even worse. The problem to the north of Kurdistan is at least played on similar ethnic terms. The problem to the south of Kurdistan will be absolutely ethically driven - cause even with all this happening with Turkey - Kurdistan has an even bigger issue brewing with the Arab Iraqis to the south - much bigger. They(both Kurds and Arabs) really believe that oil up there is theirs. And they will not let go of it. Ever. The oil issue is just getting bizzare now. Turkey is trying to make some dubious claim that the Kirkuk fields are theirs - somehow. And they really just want to make sure the Kurds cannot use these funds to finance problems against them. The Kurds think it is theirs by tribal right and the arabs think the Kurds interlopers in the first place.

This is truly one of the biggest clusterfucks I have ever, ever seen.

And this moron president - left OUR KIDS dead in the middle of it.

That is really the truth of the situation. It is that bad.

Joe

(assuming we survive - and I'm only half joking) - If this escalates the way it is going - drawing itself into regional and even larger contexts - there will be no doubt that the thirld world war started in Iraq in 2003. No doubt at all. Even WWII had its "false war" time (39-40). Times of limited engagement and then followed by frenzied fighting. A lot of wars do go hot and cold anyway.

I have this theory - and I admit I am just a graduate military history student - about death tolls in war. It is that the death factors in major wars post industrial revolution grow in multiples of ten or more. Like this - 1812 had 60,000 KIA ( the very dawn of the inustrial age); US Civil war 600,000 KIA: WWI (best estimate) 8.7 million KIA; WWII 60,000,000 (probably a low estimate) KIA - SO I think if there is ever allowed to be a WWIII - we will lose at a minimum 600,000,000 people. It can never be allowed to happen - not EVER.

Maybe after all, there is something to the dominoe theory - in the middle east anyway.

Joe

Hell, we all ready owed Turkey around $30 billion for the 1st Bush war in the Gulf (never paid). Turkey did NOT want to get involved in this one (parliament initially refused to authorize U.S. military utilization for the Iraq war). This Bush war has lasted far FAR longer than the last and has/will surely cost Turkey far greater than the previous one.

Cheney, wanting to make damn sure Iran doesn't get any piece of Iraq, likely cut a deal with Turkey and gave it authority to just take Northern Iraq along with its oil (as long, of course, as U.S. oil companies can contract to drill or process or distribute it, of course).

Cheney and the neocons could care less whether a regional war expands to a world war since they profit, BIG TIME. To the contrary, those crazy fucks have been having wet dreams for a world war for quite some time and even openly stated so.

Anyhoots, that's my guess at what's happening.

can stop it at his point is a sh%tload of snow. If it starts snowing they can't get through the passes and even the guerrilla warfare from the Kurdish side stops for the season. Just when you think it can't get any worse. truly a cluster fuck of behemoth proportions.

K&R for the long post.

Because this action will do just that. And will probally get them kicked out of NATO as well. Plus I don't think Turkey has many friends in the ME (well maybe isreal) so in the long run this will probally go bad for Turkey. And even worst for the rest of the world.

It is sad about Turkey - they were the last of the Ottoman Empire and now they will shrink totally off the pages of history - a real risk for them. They are picking a fight they will never win.

For us - we better be looking at this as Iraq is not as important as breaking up NATO and losing the Ankara airbase - this is a really dangerous world and an incredibly bad move with very serious negative potential for us.

We got a very bad no win situation in this one.
The US better talk Turkey out of this one - but I think we are too late to do that now.
Joe

... and there is a definite NeoCon agenda playing out in this one.

It would not surprise me to learn that the US blamed Iran for backing Turkey in this, and the NeoCons tried to initiate an attack on Iran because of it.

Americans do cry bullshit at some point - and that point is very past due now.

If we don't stop this soon it will be too late.
Cheney is, I think over the top insane.

I don't think Bush Jr is a neocon really - just cause he is too stupid to have any ideology - he got a C- in principle at that school his daddy bought his diploma from, you know.

Joe

Cheney and Addington have engineered a NeoCon agenda and sold it to Bush as the only alternative.

Cheney has never considered negotiating with anyone about anything, unless you call issuing ultimatums negotiating.

I have my doubts we can survive until the end of Bush's term since there is so much more Cheney intends to do to promote the NeoCon agenda between now and then.

I choose not. I like the whole idea of the founding fathers. The whole concept of assholes getting dipped in hot tar and feathered - how approppriate.

SO , maybe we have to make the vat of tar double wide - fine with me - and a good idea.

I think I want the whole batch of neocons tarred and feathered and branded anti-American.
And that is what they are.

I will give them a chance though - they can stand a watch in their skivies in - oh, lets say - Kirkuk for 5 straight weeks, and if they live, I'll take it back, - If they live.

You know our foretfathers were gamblers with a right in their soul - are they??
Maybe they should put up or shut up - don't up think?

Lets find out.

Joe

Suppose .... the US decides to try and repel the Turkish troops from invading northern Iraq. We lose the troop and supply line through Turkey immediately, and our southern Iraq supply lines are vulnerable because the British have pulled out. Our troops could be 'stranded' in the middle of a vicious attack by 200k fully armed Turkish soldiers moving through them. Once the US decides to 'oppose' Turkey's invasion, you add Iran and Syria to the mix in support of Turkey's goal to wipe out the Kurdish attempt to establish a homeland built on the very valuable oil wells in Kirkuk and surrounding areas.

The trip this last week by Putin to Iran may very well have been to address the upcoming Turkish invasion plans, and let Iran know that Russia will back them against the US with strategic information and arms behind the scenes.

In that scenario the US could be in the position of having to decide whether to use weapons of mass destruction(ie. heavy bombing, and possibly tactical nukes) in order to protect our troops since convention weapons would not provide the ability to rescue our troops on the ground in Iraq. This brings China and the other regional powers into the mix. The UN would be totally ineffective in ending the hostilities since 3 or more of the permanent members of the Security Council would be fighting against one another.

Suppose.... the US decides to allow Turkey to invade and wipe out the Kurds. Two things happen immediately -- First, the Kurds will develop an insurgency which will identify the US with the Turks and begin attacking our troops on the ground there. Second, once inside northern Iraq the Turkish army will move on the oil fields of the north setting up a conflict with the US troops on the ground. The US will not cede control of the oil fields to Turkey, and Turkey is not going to withdraw and cede the money to be generated by those oil fields to the Kurds.

There is no winning side for the US in this. THere is bad and worse.

A big question here is will the regional powers combine to try and force the US troops to withdraw from the region? If they do, who will be aligned with the US?

IMHO this is going to ratchet up our involvement in a hurry, and a military draft is going to be considered immediately.

This is either an extremely bad or very, very extremely bad position for us - and getting worse daily. I DO NOT UNDERSTAND why this guy hasn't been impeached yet - WHY???? What he did WAS treason for profit - really, lets call this plain here.

I heard this - not mine - but I remember the saying from a long time ago - "America Love IT or Leave It" - Oh, lest bring that one back!!! That would be America - with a CONSTITUTION, AMERICA - NO WARS OF OF FOREIGN INTRIGUE -those very same things that our liberal AND conservative forefathers believed - OUR forefathers believed, no party ID - genuine American principle.

You know - A thing Barry Goldwater and JFK would shake hands on - that American.

These morons now - they are NOT American - so I say lets start breaking out the tar and feathers now.

Joe



That is the way I feel - this guy is un American

We cannot feasibly take sides in this without suffering a loss of some kind.

First, the Kurds.

-They are the one sect in Iraq that is relatively friendly to the US. They are already disillusioned by the sectarian bickering of the Iraqi government, so to side with Turkey could mean losing influence over the Kurds. It is possible they may feel compelled to take up an insurgency of their own in order to break away from Iraq proper.

Next, the Turks.

-Make no mistake, we need Turkey as an ally. It is one the most moderate Islamic states, and is definitely the most modernized. Furthermore, we need Turkey to serve as a launch point for any military operation in the Middle East. To side with the Kurds could result in a severely damaged reputation amongst the Turks.

You should run for congress - cause I think most of those people take laxatives for their brains.
Consequently they shit themselves out their mouths.

You know - I have no problem with any here going to congress - It is what congress was supposed to be, the way our founders saw it. A peoples house. Not an ABA house. It is a PROBLEM!!!


Hell, I have no issue with true conservatives except over the minor things - but it appears they are extinct now. Damn.

I respect principle - And I don't see much principle lately.

We are reaching out at the end of the 21st century paradigm America - reach America, reach hard.

Joe

... after reading over the Federalist Papers and various objective reports on the writing of the Constitution, this is more or less the way it is "supposed" to be... only it isn't. The framers intended there to be "constitutional distance" between representatives and their constituents because, as history has shown, the passions of the masses are oftentimes fickle. A belief held by the majority doesn't make it right (i.e., racism), therefore there should be some disconnect between a representative and his constituents in order to prevent the passing of counterproductive or illogical laws.

On the other hand, the Constitution was framed in a pre-capitalist, agrarian society. Founders, like James Madison in particular, felt public service would offer so little in the way of financial rewards, that those who would seek public office would do so out of a genuine desire to be a part of a democratic institution. Washington, Jefferson, and Madison all left office poorer than when they had arrived. Now, special interest groups and high-profile campaign contributors offer a great deal of financial incentive in taking public office. Obviously, this attracts would-be politicians with more than one priority on their mind.

If there is one thing we need to turn around, it is how campaigns are financed and how special interest groups go about lobbying politicians. Every dumbfuck decision this country has made since the end of World War II, everything from sponsoring coups in Guatemala all the way up the current war in Iraq, has been motivated by the interests of private organizations... particularly multi-billion dollar corporations. The sooner we rid politics of their meddling influence, the better off we will all be.

Thanks for your perspective

A good summary, I didn't know a lot of the things you brought up there.

It really comes down to this in a very simplified analysis.

We cannot maintain troop strength without a draft if we are going to stay in Iraq.

If we stay in Iraq we are going to be caught in one hellacious fight between the Kurds and Turkey, not to mention the other sectarian groups fighting one another.

The time to withdraw is now, and the window for doing that is closing quickly.

You know I am only an authority on mid ninteenth century American wars, really. Yet the book I got published was about the second world war - and almost always third person. I always thought that was bizzare.

SO I get into this military academy to teach war in college - only business school guy there and - it is like a bad joke to me - I grew up with war - I know war so well. What it did in the end to the guys and the families and I always thought so highly of- well, every one understands how much this screws people up right? Then I hear Sean Hannity - he must know the cost benefit analysis - even if he is a conservative - right? Must be some dollar benefit right Sean - to war - that all of us bastards must have missed. And then it becomes clear - he really does have no idea what he is talking about - and he is getting kids killed with that rhetoric - he is nothing but a murderer. That is what he is. He should be charged with murder.

My family -they commanded great wars - I just understand how it worked- Hannity maybe you are not an idiot - idiots don't know better - you do - so, you are a murderer. You killed little kids and you are a bastard.

You catholic Hannity? - I am - I believe in life - you clearly do not - not if they are 19 year old kids with an m4 in their hands you don't.

Oh Mr Hannity let me tell you this - I sure ain't the best catholic but I have searched my soul and I think I am fairly spiritual and a good christian. When christian ministers have trouble with the government - I don't charge them anything - I just want to talk to them. I just want to understand. And I am Catholic Sean, my family wre all priests or soldiers. You are no catholic buddy - My great grand uncle is a goddamn saint in the church too. SO who the fuck are you to tell me what "america" thinks - what do you know of the faith 0h what do you know of america?

Shut up you little bastard. All the accounts I have ever read - tar is really hot and it hurts when you get dunked in it. And the feathers - they sure don't come off right away.

You are not a christian Hannity - and you know what? People that are know it.
It is the sermon on the mount - the paramount teaching of christ - you will never get it.

What so ever you do to the least of my brothers, that you do unto me. It was litteral Sean - hint-hint.

Matthew.

I know some agnostics and athiests that at least believe that one. Ever fly Southwest airlines ?

In religious terms you are behind them - you are on the "will call" line - for southwest airlines - for god - you know??


Joe

See you in hell sean - I am sure.

Thank you for your posts Joe and I was so glad to hear that your boy is home. Best news I've had in a while.

or cry, beings as how you are and have been spot on about this. I'll tell you straight up that I'm getting as scared today as I was as a kid of 13 during the Cuban missile crises and brother I can still show you scars from that one, mental scars.

Thanks for keeping us filled in on this Joe. for that you are a Saint

joe

It's not like we can point fingers for waging illegal war.

switch them out for older models in the hopes that they get "accidentally" destroyed so they can replace them with fun new toys. got to keep the military industrial complex happy.

money has to be made off of this some how.

the other thing, I wrote about this a while back, I see this Turk invasion as a prime opportunity for a staged false flag incident.

Iran starts lobbing a few artillery shells into the Kurds for good measure, but then it's reported by the US "media" that the turks were fired upon by the Iranians and thus the NATO accord kicks in and we get our war on with Iran.

Whatever happens, it won't be pleasant.

Yes Joe you are correct


Where are the DU fascist deniers, not in this thread, I wonder why?

for how spot-on you've been about this stuff.

I hope you're wrong but with all these elements in play, I'm afraid you won't be. At least we're warned.

:scared: