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After all these years of expert opinion on all sides, it seems clear that nobody knows what in hell we can possibly do to get out of Iraq in a way that will facilitate stability.
> Immediate troop pull-out? I don't buy it. After reading a history of Afghanistan, I'm convinced that if we pull out, Iraq will become even more of what it is now: a battlefield of governments and Al Qaeda fighting a proxy war against each other. Iranian-funded Shiites, Saudi-funded Sunnis, Kurds backed into a corner, pissed and perhaps funded by the CIA, Saudi/Eqypt/Worldwide-funded Al Qaeda, Turkish-funded groups, and perhaps even the Turkish military. In the end, the result would be an extremist terrorist-harboring government, Taliban style, sitting on massive energy resources and funded by the deep pockets of Saudi Arabia, Eqypt, and the worldwide network of Islamic charities, a great deal of which is knowingly and unknowingly funneled to terrorist activity. And even that seems optimistic. I highly doubt Iran would sit by and let the Saudis not only grab control of the second largest oil-rich nation, but also extend themselves to Iran's western border. More likely, the fighting would continue as far into the future as you can see, for the prize of Iraq is far too great to cede.
> Phased withdrawal to allow the Iraqi police and military to step up as we step out (to paraphrase a great talking point of our times)? See above, but slightly delayed. Any loyalty policemen and soldiers have to their extremely weak government is in most cases a distant second to the loyalty they have for their communities and local leaders.
> Partitioning the country into Sunni, Kurd, and Shiite independent zones or states? I really don't think it's that simple. It's not like everyone in these groups shares the same opinion about where these lines should be drawn, especially with energy resources at stake. You'd be taking hundreds of thousands or more out of their home and forcing them somewhere else, because if you didn't they'd be "cleansed" if caught in the wrong place. Partitioning would in effect be us trying to declare ourselves the central authority on the ethnic cleansing activities already taking place and expecting all the parties involved to agree where they belong.
But maybe solutions lie in the territory of disallowed ideas.
As a pacifist (mostly), I hate to say it, but I can only see a possible viable solution in a massive increase in U.S. troop presence, and reshaping the entirety of our foreign policy and national priorities to be centered on the goal of a safe, stable, perhaps even democratic Iraq (but for real, not just a talking point to spend more money on campaign contributors). I'm talking about a full-fledged occupation of Iraq in every city and every town.
It also means a draft. In order to agree with a draft, you must agree that the goal is achievable and worth forcing (or pressing, or compelling, or conscripting) young Americans to kill and be killed in a distant land. And I think I'm just about there - not as much for the benefits of a "free" Iraq as much as the consequences of a failed Iraq. But in a addition to troops, success requires other measures, most of the which the Bush administration is not capable by lack of will or opposing philosophy.
Beg and rehire all the retired military personnel who actually knew what the fuck they were talking about before they inconveniently dribbled impurities into Karl Roves lily white talking points. Demote the ass kissers like Petraus to follow the orders of their former and new bosses.
Kick the security contractors out, not only are they a tremendous money sink, but they're unaccountable and fuel opposition. Establish oversight of all contracted activities, ensure everyone is being paid what they deserve and that in turn they are paying their employees fair and just wages and fees. Offer contracts to foreign corporations in return for coalition military forces. Get the goddamn oil running, guard every linear foot of pipeline and use it to pay for contracts that benefit the reconstruction of Iraq. Establish a policy of hiring Iraqi firms, professionals, and labor first and foremost. Contractors must prove to the U.S. government that they did everything they could to accomplish this and only hired others when skills could not be acquired otherwise. When such foreign workers need to be brought in, employees should be from the United States and other nations actively contributing to the reconstruction and stability of Iraq.
Contractors in Iraq should be able to get filthy rich as an incentive to work in a difficult and dangerous environment, but if they don't produce results and try to bilk the tax-payer, then they're gone and someone else gets a chance. No contractor works in Iraq without the agreement of the Iraqi government.
Hold elections immediately, even if flawed and dirty. Support the elected officials and publicly respond to their needs as the rightful leaders of their communities. There needs to be a demonstration that the elected officials have some real power over the occupation forces if not total. Allow an Iraqi government to fight over and draft its own Constitution with advice from the United States. No one-man edicts as those crafted by Paul Bremer.
Prosecute war crimes publicly of others and our own. For those nations funding proxy forces, publicly offer and provide incentives for them to halt such funds and publicly denounce their governments and impose sanctions for when they do not. This means Saudi Arabia, Iran, Eqypt, et al.
Fucking catch and publicly try Osama Bin Laden and his inner circle. Don't tell me it's too hard. It was hard under Clinton because we were relying on second and third-tier informants and agents. But under Bush, our goddamn Army was right there and still is.
Help me flesh this out. I intend to challenge President Kucinich in 2012 for the Democratic nomination if he has not made progress in Iraq.
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