Obama surging to Dead Heat with Clinton in Iowa

In the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, meanwhile, a slip in John Edwards' numbers has allowed Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to tighten their grips on the No. 1 and No. 2 spots, respectively. Among all likely Democratic caucus-goers, Clinton leads with 28.9 percent, followed by Obama with 26.6 percent, Edwards with 20.0 percent, Bill Richardson with 7.2 percent and Joe Biden with 5.3 percent.

These results are from a random, statewide poll of likely caucus-goers in Iowa conducted Oct. 17 through 24. The Republican sample consists of 285 likely caucus-goers, with a margin of error of +/-5.8 percent. The Democratic likely caucus-goer sample consists of 306 likely caucus-goers, with a margin of error of +/-5.5 percent.

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/october/102907poll-candidates.html


2.3% difference with a 5.5 MOE and give the sample size is a dead heat. that is actually just 7 votes in a sample of 306

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/october/102907hawkeye-poll-powerpoint.pdf

The powerpoint highlights an Obama Surge at Edwards expense while Hillary has hit a ceiling.


NOw we know the REAL REASON she sent another 100 staffers to the state.

"i just checked 6 major newspapers across iowa and there was one article from the chicago tribune in the quad cities news group. i don`t think the majority over there knows anything about this"

so is it really fair to call all the people in iowa who are going to vote for him in iowa bigots?






'

and doesn't take one vote for granted. That's how a smart campaign is run.

If Obama wins Iowa it may help him in NH, ect.

I think the "real reason" that Hillary sent 100 staffers to Iowa is that she feels she has a good shot at winning the state, not becuz of Obama necessarily.

at 29%.


You are dead on however about Obama. If he sqeaks out a win. It will be huge. Black man wins in Lilly white Iowa. Even if he wins it will suck all the oxygen out of the room. allthey way to NH.

Hillary is way ahead there...but if the support for the also-rans move his way, it will tighten considerably. Leaving SOuth Carolin as the real test. If Obama wins in the Spouth and in Iowa. He will roll into SUper Tuesday with huge momentum. but if Hillary win NH and SC barely she problem locks it up.


On the Otherhand, if Hillary wins in Iowa by a slim Margin...she probably wins New Hampshire. and then SC is Obama's last stand.

Hillary needs to win Iowa's handedly or it becomse a two person race. That is why she is putting more troops into Iowa.

Don't listen to the polls