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The economy is fundamentally strong. My ass.

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flamin lib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:23 PM
Original message
The economy is fundamentally strong. My ass.
Bull$hit. That’s the only word for it.

The fed just cut the interest rate again to ward off recession. How does that work? If interest rates are low people spend more money. That’s what happened when mortgage rates fell; people bought houses. People buying houses fueled a lending war with banks making all sorts of foolish loans. The Republicans had loosened banking regulation and didn’t enforce what few laws remained, so lenders didn’t worry about the loans foreclosing because houses in big demand meant house values increased. Let ‘em default, we’ll just sell to another buyer!

That snake had to stop eating its own tail when foreclosures caused the over-inflated housing values to crash so the lenders couldn’t sell for what they’d loaned and we all know how that worked out: first the lending industry crashed, then the housing industry crashed and all the peripheral industries, lumber, appliances and landscaping crashed.

The only thing keeping the economy afloat is consumer spending on cheap imported goods, notably from China so when Joe Sixpack slows his spending the FED takes notice.

The only problem is they’re creating a new snake eating its own tail.

Low interest has weakened the dollar against other world currencies. In 2005 one $ would buy 8.3 Chinese Yuan. Today it will only buy 7.4 Yuan, a 10% drop. That means the Chinese have to pay 10% more for material and labor into the US market. Prices at Walmart go up, Joe Sixpack cuts back, US economy looks weak so the FED cuts interest rates to make it easier for Joe to run up the credit card.

Rate cuts weaken the dollar more, which makes China look at its one trillion dollars (which are now worth only 900 million) and say, “Hmmmmm.” Last week a Chinese government official mused out loud that maybe China should sell off its US currency, a signal to the FED to keep rates high “or else”. That spooked the commodity market (gold, silver and such) and the dollar fell even faster.

So there you have it, a brand new snake. If the FED doesn’t continue to cut rates the economy goes into recession on Bush’s watch. If they do, the Chinese and others sell off the dollar and it crashes. That means a 99 cent package of tube socks at Walmart will suddenly cost $2.50. Inflation runs amok and there’s a recession on Bush’s watch.

If you want to know what this means to our economy visit Mexico and imagine being the Mexican you’re buying trinkets from. "Hey Mister! Genuine silver bracelet only $10 US, $5 Canadian."

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=4406.2649.0.0

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/myway-com/news-story.asp?guid={33F4ADA9-5DCE-4D44-B39C-74D4017ACC5E}
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OKNancy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:26 PM
Response to Original message
1. I love his snarky lecture on Econ 101
"the price of oil is going up because demand outstrips supply"
He is such an asshole. His words don't have any sway on speculation, right?
He makes my skin crawl.
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Clark2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:27 PM
Response to Original message
2. What is the current interest rate?
I'd like to re-fi my fixed-loan mortgage and pay off credit card debt so all I have is my home.

We actually don't have that much cc debt compared with other Americans, but I was out of work this summer because I had a baby and it caused us to charge those stupid things up. Would like to get rid of them and their usuary once and for all.

BTW, I agree with the assessment above, but will take advantage of the lower interest rates to work ourselves out of debt.
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n2doc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. 30 year fixed are around 6 to 6.2 %
So in spite of all the hoopla rates really aren't any different than they were a year ago. But I suspect that inflation is eventually going to make this a pretty good looking number.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. Make sure your jobs are stable
and see if you can swing a fixed 15 year refinance. You want to get out of debt ASAP, even if it means eating beans and rice for the duration.

The problem with a conventional refinance is that it resets the clock to 30 years, meaning you're going to be paying much more in interest than you would on a 15 year refi.
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annabanana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:27 PM
Response to Original message
3. If interest rates are low, people spend more money.
From a strictly "end-user" point of view. If I'm stretching to pay the grocery & gas bill, I'm not about to borrow bunches of money for "extras" no matter how low the rate is. Conversely.. if the toilet backs up, I will use the credit card regardless of the interest rate.

(How is the air up there?)
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flamin lib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #3
13. The only tool the government has to make money move around the
economy, which is what defines a healthy economy, is to throw more of it out there. Low interest rates do that. Maybe you or I won't immediately run out and buy something, but Walmart will and they'll advertise it and that generates traffic in the store and that means somebody is buying something.
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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:33 PM
Response to Original message
5. You are confused
The Fed cut does not directly affect consumers ability to borrow.
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flamin lib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:44 PM
Response to Reply #5
10. Probably not, but it's the only tool they have to make money move
around. Throw more of it out there. If the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.
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HowHasItComeToThis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:34 PM
Response to Original message
6. BUSH RATTLES SABER RE IRAN
MARKET DROP FROM DOWN 220 TO DOWN 280
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Initech Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:34 PM
Response to Original message
7. The economy is great if you're an oil billionaire or stock swindler!
For the other 99.9% of us, it really sucks.
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MiniMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:35 PM
Response to Original message
8. Your ass, my bank account!
Funds are running LOW
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B Calm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 03:58 PM
Response to Original message
11. Bluebirds of happiness are everywhere, and everybody is singing..
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spanone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-07-07 04:01 PM
Response to Original message
12. yes, it's good news when the dow falls 370 points...means the economy is 'robust'
:sarcasm:
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