Among top 3 Dems in Iowa “This is a real horserace coming into the stretch run" -Zogby... LINK

While Clinton and Obama have spent $ millions advertising, and John Edwards just began making his media buys in Iowa this week, this is an incredibly close race in Iowa.

When second choices were polled (which will influence the outcome of the caucus), the polled results were:

Clinton 30%, Obama 29% and Edwards 27%.


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1385

Latest Zogby poll shows when including second choices of caucus goers, all three of the top Dem Candidates are within the MOE.

"Pollster John Zogby: “This is a real horserace coming into the stretch run. With less than two months before the caucuses, this is anybody’s ballgame.”

:boring:

JE is running a very smart campaign. He, unlike the others, has been there before.

An eternity in politics. It could be Richardson-Dodd-Biden by that time.

It'll all change after Iowa. If Clinton doesn't finish 1st, she will lose momentum that could carry over to New Hampshire. While I think she could recover from a strong second place finish, it would be difficult and if she finishes a distant third, she's toast. I also think Clinton will be hurt the most if Edwards takes first, since he'll clearly have the momentum heading into New Hampshire, with Clinton losing ground since she was picked to win Iowa.

Even Clinton's camp is trying to soft pedal any "inevitability" talk. They have an exquisite understanding of both politics and hubris, either one of which can turn on you and bite your butt.

Anyone that followed the 2004 race in Iowa between Dean, Kerry and Edwards knows that things can change overnight. Dean led for most of the primary and his lead slipped in the final days of the election and once he finished 3rd in Iowa, it went down hill from there and he lost New Hampshire and subsequently the presidency.

I believe Clinton is smart and I think she knows the nomination is far from locked up. This is why I caution against reading too much into national polls, because national polls don't mean a lick right now -- not unless we have a national primary, which obviously isn't the case.

Hillary 2007 is not Dean 2004 by a very long shot. Deanism was almost hysterical in its optimism; Hillary's lead is the result of steady, painstaking work over years, building and honing her campaign to respond to every imaginable stimulus.

Doesn't guarantee squat, of course, but Dean was Icarus to Hilary's Hercules.

... isn't faring too badly in the "put your money on the line" market in the Iowa Electronic Markets: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_Quotes.html

It's the only place you can put actual bets on political horse races (special exemption for educational purposes): http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=iowa+electronic+markets+clinton+giuliani

- Dave

Among all Iowa polled individuals, those indicating Edwards as a first or second choice fall into the category of those 'most likely to actually attend the caucus.'

Among the same group, those indicating Obama as their first or second choice fall into the category of those 'least likely to actually attend the caucus.'

Edwards has built an unbelievable grass roots ground organization in Iowa that will get the Edwards' supporters to the caucus. He started in the 2004 race helping the local Democratic Part officials by providing them with computers, access to individuals with expertise to run their campaigns, and has stayed in touch with them for years.

Hillary claims to have more 'warm bodies' on the ground in Iowa, but in the end it likely will come down to 'quality' of those making up the respective ground operations.

Here is something to remember: "It is much harder to hang onto to a close lead than to surge with momentum to victory."

No reliable strategists I know believe that this race will NOT tighten up before the caucus is held.

... but I'm also wondering why his long-term investment in Iowa hasn't produced a sharper/clearer result for him.

- Dave

... as your dream ticket?

- Dave

Right now it would be Edwards and Webb of Virginia, or Obama.

Can't say I am a Hillary fan, but she will get my vote if she wins the Dem Nomination.

... someone with more experience than Edwards, please. I like Webb, but he needs some seasoning.

Who do you think is on *HIS* short list, given how smart he is? (I think he's smart enough to realize that he sends a strong message of confidence if he picks someone with a "longer public service resume" as his Veep.)

; )

- Dave

Jim Webb is a highly decorated war hero who has experience as the Sec of the Navy, during which time he rebuilt the military after Vietnam. He might have to do that all over again if we pull out of Iraq and bring the troops home.

He fulfills a foreign policy and military gap in the experience record of Edwards. That should appeal to voters who think Edwards does not have enough 'seasoning' when it comes to the military and foreign policy.

Like Edwards he is very smart, and well respected by his colleagues on the Hill. Because he served under Reagan, some Dems may be suspicious of his party loyalty, but that same record will play well to Independents/Undecideds and Unaffiliated voters.

From Wikipedia

"James Henry "Jim" Webb, Jr. (born February 9, 1946) is the junior Senator from Virginia. He is also an author and a former Secretary of the Navy under President Ronald Reagan. He is a member of the Democratic Party.

A 1968 graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy, Webb is a retired Marine Corps infantry officer until 1972, and is a highly decorated Vietnam War combat veteran. During his four years with the Reagan administration, Webb served as the first Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs, then as Secretary of the Navy. Webb won the Democratic nomination for the 2006 Virginia Senate race by defeating Harris Miller in the primary, then won the general election by defeating the Republican incumbent, George Allen, and Independent Green candidate, Glenda "Gail" Parker."

"After graduating from Annapolis, Webb was commissioned as a second lieutenant in the U.S. Marine Corps. As a first lieutenant during the Vietnam War he served as a platoon commander with Delta Company, 1st Battalion 5th Marines. He earned a Navy Cross, the second highest decoration in the Navy and Marine Corps for heroism in Vietnam. Webb also earned the Silver Star, two Bronze Stars, and two Purple Hearts."

<snip>


"Webb received the Navy Cross for actions on July 10, 1969. The citation read:

“ The Navy Cross is presented to James H. Webb, Jr., First Lieutenant, U.S. Marine Corps, for extraordinary heroism while serving as a Platoon Commander with Company D, First Battalion, Fifth Marines, First Marine Division (Reinforced), Fleet Marine Force, in connection with combat operations against the enemy in the Republic of Vietnam. On 10 July 1969, while participating in a company-sized search and destroy operation deep in hostile territory, First Lieutenant Webb's platoon discovered a well-camouflaged bunker complex that appeared to be unoccupied. Deploying his men into defensive positions, First Lieutenant Webb was advancing to the first bunker when three enemy soldiers armed with hand grenades jumped out. Reacting instantly, he grabbed the closest man and, brandishing his .45 caliber pistol at the others, apprehended all three of the soldiers. Accompanied by one of his men, he then approached the second bunker and called for the enemy to surrender. When the hostile soldiers failed to answer him and threw a grenade that detonated dangerously close to him, First Lieutenant Webb detonated a claymore mine in the bunker aperture, accounting for two enemy casualties and disclosing the entrance to a tunnel. Despite the smoke and debris from the explosion and the possibility of enemy soldiers hiding in the tunnel, he then conducted a thorough search that yielded several items of equipment and numerous documents containing valuable intelligence data. Continuing the assault, he approached a third bunker and was preparing to fire into it when the enemy threw another grenade. Observing the grenade land dangerously close to his companion, First Lieutenant Webb simultaneously fired his weapon at the enemy, pushed the Marine away from the grenade, and shielded him from the explosion with his own body. Although sustaining painful fragmentation wounds from the explosion, he managed to throw a grenade into the aperture and completely destroy the remaining bunker. By his courage, aggressive leadership, and selfless devotion to duty, First Lieutenant Webb upheld the highest traditions of the Marine Corps and of the United States Naval Service.<7>"

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I see Edwards challenging and taking her points

I bet 7 out of 10 Hillary defectors will go to Edwards and the rest to Biden and Obama.