John Zogby: Redefining National Security: Homes and Health are New Concerns

from HuffPost:



John Zogby
Redefining National Security: Homes and Health are New Concerns
Posted November 16, 2007 | 01:04 PM (EST)




With the caucuses and primaries now just around the corner, concern over national security remains at the forefront of the minds of likely voters in America.

The war in Iraq and terrorism around the world are most often cited as the top concerns, but serious worries about the state of the U.S. health care system and concern about the economy are emerging as the "new" national security issues.

That is to say, Americans are redefining what they think about security, expanding it to include how secure they feel about their household budgets, and how secure they feel about their health care coverage. The 2008 presidential election will be the first since Americans have completely adjusted to the post-9/11 world, and campaigns must understand this sea change in the minds of voters if they are to survive.

Of course, this all goes out the window if there is a new, serious terrorist attack on U.S. soil. But that hasn't happened in more than six years. In the current environment, Democrats hold the advantage.

That's not how it was last time around. In 2004, Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry found himself with 48% support nationwide, not bad for a White House challenger newly minted as his party's nominee. The problem was, he was unable to budge that number all year, and ended up narrowly losing the election. My polling showed his strategy was flawed from the beginning.

Three years ago, our polling showed that he was favored by likely voters on all of the top issues but one -- national security and the war on terror. Granted that was the top issue in the minds of voters, and our polling showed voters trusted President Bush much more to handle terrorism, but Kerry focused almost exclusively on that issue alone, instead of on those issues where he had a natural advantage.

He failed to win the trust of voters on terrorism, and his failure to capture a majority coalition of voters who cared about those other issues was his biggest mistake.

This time could be different. It could be said that the success in avoiding another U.S. terror attack -- for which Bush must get at least some credit -- may actually hurt the Republican nominee this time around. ......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-zogby/redefining-national-secur_b_73029.html