There is a rumor -that opec is going to try and drive oil

up to maybe 200 dollars a barrel - trying to break us.

They think China or India will pick up the slack- - They may be right. Even if they cut production 50% - they come out just fine -we don't - not at 200 a barrel we don't.

If the dollar is nothing more than a virtual control - Virtual empire - we are in trouble.

We can get broken on the futures market pretty fast- you know that??

About 48 hours ago I was watched oil pop 4% in overnight trade.

It is really serious -

We can't give them our money anymore - we need to find another way, another fuel - we have to do something - and if we don't, a lot of our people are going to be destroyed here.

Joe

unless you mean that this is something they'll try to do before, say the end of the year.

including the hell hole of hostile countries surrounding them.

ya think?

You will pay $200 per barrel or we will no longer trade in Petrodollars.

Same difference more or less.

A) OPEC doesn't have nearly the power it had in, say, the 70s or 80s.

B) Oil producing countries learned a long time ago that they have more to gain by keeping prices *stable* rather than gouging and destroying demand.

We should be far more worried about OPEC and other oil syndicates switching from the dollar to another currency, as they've been considering recently.

In other news, according to the IEA, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 6.9 million barrels last week...

Saudi Arabia and other oil producers may be dealing with peak oil, but Iran and Iraq may be sitting on a pile of unexploited oil that they can actually maximize profit from by lowering prices to China and India. This would end up decreasing the cash flow to Saudi Arabia and others. Keeping the ME in turmoil prevents these surplus oil fields from being exploited all at once.

OPEC doesn't have to charge $200 a barrel if the value of the dollar falls 50%. At that point, $200 will be worth exactly as much as $100 is now.

Remember too that inflation, in simple terms, is a measure of how much less a dollar is worth, year to year. And that pace has been accelerating recently.

I've seen enough of Americans dropping their differences during emergencies to know we'd soon organize ourselves into car pools for everything from grocery shopping to vacations. I can also see technologies that are just waiting for enough seed money to take off to render OPEC's product useless except as one of many lubricants.

The transition will suck, but we have been through other transitions.

:thumbsup:

You know what can happen to us normal people??

This ain't FDR as president we have here -more like Hoover.

Too many people get hurt - and they are absolutley going to do this.

You know the one country that stood up for not doing it was Saudi Arabia -think Saudi Arabia??

This is not good.

Joe

there is no possible way we can continue to live on a petroleum economy indefinitely. sooner or later, we will have to switch, either by choice or by necessity after we suck every last barrel of oil out of the ground.

it will happen. i do not understand waiting until it must be done before anything is done at all.

I cannot watch decent people getting screwed over events they had no part in.

And they will.Our people.

Most people just want to feed their family - they didn't do this - and they shouldn't get hurt because of it.

We elected people to be responsible - and they are AWOL right now.

Joe

i re-read my earlier posts, and they don't make much sense to me, and seeing as how i wrote them, that's probably bad.

i agree that it will be incredibly painful to wean ourselves off of petroleum. that's the best reason i can think of to start throwing piles of money at alternative fuels. the sooner we seriously accept the fact that the petroleum economy is finite, and that the end is actually in sight, the less upheval and less pain will be caused.

There will be a shock to our system - it is unavoidable -

But if we are forced to go from one fuel to another -without having that other fuel soon available - we are not going to get shocked - it is much worse.

It broke chart resistance - it has a run in it - oil does.

This is not cool - people will lose their jobs over this one.

It is not a geopolitical event - it is a fundamental - demand really did overtake supply.

That is not correctable.

Joe

do you guys really think $200 a barrel will happen?
They will open the spigots in Alaska and the gulf and bury us in oil short term and drop the price in half...while soaking billions in profits.

We have TONS of oil..all we have to do is create a crisis to pump it.Do you really believe they will help wildlife instead of profit?

we can't perfect the oil up there - don't you know that??

Gravity is wrong.

what was to come, and he gave us "the mythical little people" tax credits to install solar panels in our homes. My spouse and I did this only to see it all be stripped away by Uncle Ronnie Raygun, who also stripped the solar panels from the White House after he was inaugurated. Some of us have been working for change against the odds for decades.

Yes, it's gonna hurt, but I will be much angrier than your average citizen when it happens!

is really unchanged, as is the price of gold---it's just that it takes loads more dollars to buy them.

countries who like us a lot less than they did seven years ago. This is potentially the disaster that will hurt us more than all the terrorists in the world. At a time when the world will sorely need a benevolent super power, we may be on our knees. My only question is why the Bush administration got us in this mess and why we let it happen.

because they could :grr:

There has been an intensification of numerous rumors regarding oil production and currencies for the past month.

Saudi Arabia wants us to believe that their fields are in worse shape than they have previously reported to our auditors.

There continue to be rumors (which have circulated for three years or more) that OPEC nations want the right to sell oil in some currency other than U.S. denominated dollars.

Then on the other side, there is another rumor that we have a deal with Saudi Arabia to protect the leadership in that nation from a revolt so long as they continue to press the issue that the U.S. dollar remain the world's reserve currency. If the Sauds were to abandon the dollar, that would pretty much make the Euro the world's reserve currency.

But, as the OP says, these are a series of rumors.

This would explain Gold's bull market to some extent. Some economists and investment analysts have been predicting a pullback in gold; however, it appears to be the one sector (ie, gold stocks, EFTs and the metal and mining sector itself) that is either immune or gaining momentum in an investment environment in which nearly ever sector--including commodities and petroleum--are stumbling.

Although, I still hold many oil related stocks.

But it broke chart resistance 48 hours ago -

Our people in the northeast - will pay dearly for this.

And I live in California - but all Americans are my people.

They are hurt -will be hurt.

They don't use natural gas - those furnaces burn oil - and it gets really cold there.

Joe

is predicted too by British intelligence. Whoda thunk it ?


Document reveals Nixon plan to seize Arab oil fields
'70s embargo sparked 'last resort' measure, says British memo

Lizette Alvarez, New York Times

Friday, January 2, 2004
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/01/02/MNG8G427D61.DTL

"The British warned in their assessment that any occupation of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi might have to last as long as 10 years. The use of force would also anger and alienate Arab countries and irritate the Soviet Union, although a military confrontation with the country would be unlikely, the document stipulated."

Well, shucky darn, if the media and BushCo aren't demanding a ten year occupation to at least 2013 (the war began 2003, and since then the occupation phase)

Top Democratic candidates won't vow full Iraq pullout by 2013
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/09/27/dems.debate.ap/

The media is almost demanding the troops stay until then, huh ?

OPEC cut our oil and America's economy suffered like it never had since before WW2. After that it was a national goal to end our dependence on crazy people in the Mid East.

In the 80s, Reagan thought it was more important for the rich to get richer so he dropped the ball. Since then, we've fought 3 wars in the Mid East and we're still suffering from oil prices like we did in the 70s. We could have done better.

I do not want to see us hurt over this crap -and it is crap.

This isn't a game - people are really going to get hurt on this one.

Decent people.

Joe

to continue living as oblivious me-me-me consumers, and shut out "downers" like Jimmy Carter who made the grave error of thinking they could be talked to like grown-ups.

But yeah, I agree with your post.

a price rise of that magnitude would immediately start a global shift for fossil fuels to renew ables and once the renewable ball picks up speed, it will be bad news for the fossil fuel interests.

Note: Oil, coal and gas shills, please don't waste time by flaming this post. We've already heard all of your hack, smart-alec comments on the subject of renew ables.

It hurts dollars- not other currency, like euros - they are not so hurt.

But we are.

Joe

OPEC would never in a million years make such a move unless they already had deals lined up with nations like China, Russia, Eastern Europe, France, Venezuela and all the other countries that are eager to do business with the Middle East nations who are sick and tired of the United States.

These deals have been in the making for years and years. OPEC will never ever have trouble finding buyers. In fact, I'm sure their ducks are all in a row. Why do you think Russia and China oppose a strike against Iran?

But, in the long term, just as soon as the cost of renewables is less than oil, the avalance will start.

At this point, I'm just so doubtful and cynical. Don't you fear that we have waited too long?

If nations and the corporations that run them really cared about renewable and healthier sources of energy, would they not be pursuing those instead of wheeling and dealing for pipelines, coal plant retrofitting and oil reserves?

There's a desperation to the quality of the diplomacy that is transpiring now around the world. It is like, I don't know, five people fighting over who gets to carry one gun, or something--lol--that's not the best analogy.

There is a whole host of other issues related to the decline of oil and the price of it that most people have no awareness of.

The future I see bears more resemblence to "Road Warrior" and "Blade Runner" than any sort of utopia.

developer the renewables in time, it could be too late.

Here are are some current numbers:

A 1.5 Mwatt wind turbine cost about 1.5 million and will provide electricity for 300 homes. It would pay for itself in about 10 years and last another 10 beyond that. There are a couple of colleges in Minnesota, that have already put their 1.5 turbines in place. That's where I got the numbers from.

The larger the turbines, the more efficient. Currently, turbines are being build as large as 7 or 8 MegaWatts.

Solar is still expensive and the future has promise but it seems to be a long way into the future before it achieves real prominence.

Geothermal is already cost effective for residential uses.

Wave and tidal projects are being built all over the world. Studies are being done to harness the strength of the Gulf Stream.

If we can hold out for another 20 years, I predict that we'll make it.

forming among the Asians, UK, Eastern Europe and Middle East among all of our ex-trading partners while we have been idiotically obsessed with occupying Iraq and enriching the Carlyle Group and our defense industry stockholders.

The world is like a carcass and a handful of intelligent vultures are pulling apart the pieces and saving them for use over the next decade or so, before it becomes a free-for-all.

I don't believe green energy can save us. We are in way, way too deep, and we ignored alarms that began sounding in the 70s and 80s.

But I hope you are right, and we experience some sort of collective cosmic enlightenment and Deus Ex Machina.

it.

I find it ironic that over 2 billion years ago, Oceanic bacteria innovated the photosynthesis process. Had they not done that, that and all the rest of future life would not have survived unless they devised some other method of deriving energy from our one basic source, the Sun.

The human race is showing signs of being too dumb to survive, but there's still hope.

higher prices are already starting the shift, we'll be off of opec oil soon enough. If they let prices rise much higher, the shift will only be accelerated. Most of our oil comes from Canada anyway, doesn't it? There's a lot of good things happening with solar efficiency, battery recharge rates for electric vehicles and nano technology that will facilitate our move away from crude. Maybe OPEC knows this and wants to grab the cash while they still can.

electricity. Solar is good but still rather pricey. On the horizon are geothermal, wave and tide generators. Scientists are studying the possibility of harnessing the power of the Gulf Stream.
New wind turbines are up to 6 or 7 MWatts. One of these would power about 1300 homes.

The changeover isn't going to be quick or easy. But, after renewables assume a large piece of the global requirements, the human race will be able to turn its thoughts to more creative activities.
Face it, for years, the planet has been at the mercy of the oil, coal and gas companies.

By the way, for the nuclear advocates, I must point out the dangers of meltdown and waste storage. Nuclear waste will remain radioactive for 200,000 yrs. That's a problem. Some have even considered the possibilities of launching it into outer space.

...why would they try and break the #1 oil consumer in the world? #1 consumer three fold over the nearest consumer? It just doesn't make sense that there is some wicked, Illuminati-like plot to break American. Although I agree with your assertion, and have for some time now, that we need to look for an alternative, renewable energy source STAT. Unfortunately, the guy who could bring about such a drastic shift isn't running for office, and I don't hold out any hope for the other three possibilities. This will have to be something that the market creates.

And there are many people--quite a few of them here--who will continue to blame some corporate/political/oil cartel conspiracy long after it becomes painfully apparent that the real problem with our oil economy has to do with the natural limits on a natural resource.

...and while I don't discount that the demand in China is driving the price up, that will only last until the current "One Child" policies bring their economic boom to a screeching halt, in about 20-30 years. Which is funny because isn't that about the same time we supposedly begin the unstoppable downward slide from peak oil?

We wish.

Production is already flat, and even oil execs quoted in the WSJ now admit that capacity will never meet demand projections for the coming years. And now inventories of crude are on a general downward trend (1 step forward, 2 steps back) month over month. We'll be sliding before you know it--the only subject of debate for those in the know is how steep it'll be on the way down.

Certain of the less economically advantaged countries are already experiencing shortages (i.e., they're being outbid, and the resources allocated elsewhere). Even Australia (!) recently suffered a diesel shortage.

Why should OPEC hassle with the United States when they have diligently been lining up oil partnerships with far more predictable, rational and credit-worthy nations???

Don't forget that we are borrowing now for just about everything we do, and these nations no longer want our dollars because they are worthless pieces of paper. That is not true for the Middle East's better trading partners.

Aarggg. Why don't people understand this?? It's not so hard. Would you keep loaning money to a deadbeat, or would you begin to lend money to the less famous people who pay you back and you trust not to bully and bomb you??

But they are only one piece in a puzzel.

The rest just hate us enough to to go the extra mile.

It is not logical - a lot of what happens isn't.

No more than what we did.

Joe

If they really wanted to break us, all they need to do is switch from pricing their oil in dollars to a basket of currencies dominated by the euro - funny, there's a rumor going around now that they're thinking of doing just that:

Countdown to ?100 oil (54): OPEC ready to dump dollar?
http://www.eurotrib.com/?op=displaystory;sid=2007/11/18/164154/95

But they're not going to cut production by 50% just to fuck US over. They're going to cut production by 50% because THEY'RE fucked over:

GlobalCorp.
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/031005_globalcorp.shtml

That has to do with stable currency - has to do with collective thought-not just our thought -we don't get to decide.

Our currency is not stable - you think they don't understand that????

Joe

Of course they know our currency is not stable - exactly why they're considering pricing THEIR oil in euros. They get to choose how they price THEIR oil.

We better keep it that way too.

Joe

So yes, it is a group decision. That group includes Iran and Venezuela who hate Bush's guts. The UAE has been very clear that if Saudi Arabia OKs it, OPEC will switch. Then we will REALLY feel pain at the pump, and elsewhere.

I think most will screw us if they can.

Bu*h did this- he really really did -

Joe

OPEC and the dollar - Nov 19
http://www.energybulletin.net/37407.html

their currency. The economy is becoming unmanageable in some places (like UAE) where there is high inflation because of fast economic growth and imported inflation in the form of the drop of the $$$. Most GCC currencies are pegged to the dollar in some fashion.

They have a product to sell - and as long as we are a big buyer - they have no interest in driving us to alternative means.

At the right price -they will be priced out of the market - they were probably trained in American Universities - think they don't know the consequences of over pricing?

I am thinking screw them!!

I am thinking - you want to rape your women - go drive camels.

That is who we are dealing with here - it is a deal with the devil.

Joe

You just wrote...

"opec is going to try and drive oil up to maybe 200 dollars a barrel - trying to break us."

and now...

"they are not interested in our destruction. They have a product to sell - and as long as we are a big buyer - they have no interest in driving us to alternative means."

maintaining a market- they are just a member - they are not the cartel.

Joe

otherwise it is really just a rumor. SA will probably start to shift away from the dollar but not so suddenly as it would collapse drastically because this would be against its interest.

The rest of the Middle East will follow SA in how it deals with currency.

They understood collapsing a market costs them - the rest didn't give a shit.

That is the rumor anyway.

Joe

is 100% nuts. On the othe hand Iran, and thus its allis, would see the benefit of this plan. But I don't think Iran etc has the power unless SA chooses to shift its currency which it can do with or without OPEC's approval. SA will not do this all at once since it has a extremely tenuous relationship with the US at the moment.

You may be right - but they can go screw themselves too - we can do as we please.

We don't have to be their buyer.

Wr invented an atomic bomb - we can't invent something else to put in our gas tanks?? - I don't think so. I think they just pushed a little too far here.

Joe

the Financial bidders are driving the price up. OPEC has nothing to do with it...

and who do you think supplies that product - oil.

They are doing REALLY well.

And that costs you.

Joe

I don't know much about all this, but I do know a little bit about speculation and oil prices, and who benefits from 'rumors', because I know a little about the record profits of Exxon Mobil etc., I know a little bit about what happens to countries that have resources, but I don't know what countries with resources can do to avoid being Iraqi-sized, nor do I know how the rumored or actual actions of OPEC might effect attempts at self-preservation. Lastly I know a little bit about peak oil, but I don't know much about what real progress has been made at developing other types of fuel, or what corporations might be rolling out these new sources in the nick of time.

IE - low sulfur -so basically - from south america - north africa crude - sweet crude - we have low refining capacity for the heavies. Brent etc...

We can't coke them. Too heavy.

We have one real alternative - and it is pretty short term - syns, not coal it is dirty - shale oil- we can do that - until a real replacement is there - we can do that. Costs a lot less then this stupid war did - In the end -we better have a real solution, no doubt. But we CAN transition.

And we better.

If we don't - it could mean a real war - too many dead kids.

Yeah - I am a proponent of syn fuels - cause I do not want to see any more kids killed. This is just stupid.

The arabs -can choke on their f-ing oil. Can't eat oil -isn't it??

We are getting to the point we have to make a choice.

Joe

because they were born in the wrong geographic location at the wrong time, and that is no rumor. Is OPEC the reason for peak oil? Is OPEC the reason for record profits in the oil industry? Is OPEC the reason for $100.00 a barrel oil? Is OPEC the reason for a million Iraqi deaths?

A lot of Iraq is not arab - and "exxon" is not doing so well anymore - Paradigms don't work, isn't it?

It is too - too complicated a question to reduce it to a "soundbite"

But oil is going up for us - and good people will get hurt - and that is not ok with me.

Joe

..and I don't see Exxon hurting at all. I'm sure it will be a global entity like Exxon that will provide the fuel of the future...after...they fleece the world for all they can. As far as sound-bytes, and paradigms...Please Joe, respond to what I said.

time ago -they are just commodities dealers now.

They don't look for anything - they are just retailers.

I know that business - what it used to be - and it ain't the same business anymore. It is run by lawywers - who never actually produced anything in their life except bullshit.

Look what do I know- just another asshole isn't it??


Joe

:grr: :argh: :nuke: :banghead:

They can eat shit and die.

We don't have to eat their shit anymore -and if we have to use syns or whatever to do that - then that is what we have to do.

But they can eat shit and die.

They killed Americans - that is enough for for me.

Kill an American - then we all come after you - 300+ million of us.

Joe

I'd love to go completely gas-free, and that would be the way to do it. I agree, they can eat shit and die, the motherfuckers. We've suffered enough of their shit and they're killing the economy to line their pocketbooks. Fuck them.

ever see - it is really fast - I won't drive it anymore - I will not give the little bastard my money. They can go to hell. I will fucking ride a bicycle- not global warming - just a fuck you.

Good for you man!!!

Joe

And not even kiss us afterwards.

If the rumors are true.

and the madness

I have no high regard for them - they take our money and use it against us -they do.

But we were stupid enough to give it to them.

It is just business to them.

They can go to hell - but they are good capitalists too.

I want them back to riding camels and not Mercedes as soon as possible.

I do - I think they may be the most dangerous - cause they understand capitalism - the others are just stupid.

I really am America first -a true populist.

I want the counties future decided by Americans - not them.

Joe

of course OPEC is an organization that will capitalize and manipulate but there are numerous other factors involved. One is the reduction in quality light-sweet crude another is the devaluation of the dollar across the board. Simply demonizing OPEC omits an entire array of factors.

Oh - cuts in production - failing to increase production - is one factor -we can only refine certain grades of crude.

You know I am not really afraid for me - I am afraid for my family back east - I saw the chart break out -I know they are screwed.

Joe

... anyone who thinks that America wouldn't be playing the same hardball if the shoe was on the other foot is nuts.

There is nothing at all in common between the two other than oil is involved.

But they are getting into sync now- that is scary.

That is the true problem. OPEC is simply trying to adjust to the explosive growth of our money supply.

Currently, the oil industry uses the "PetroDollar" or the US Dollar as the standard because previously it was thought to be the most stable currency.
OPEC is already considering dumping the US dollar. I can't blame them. The Euro is already proving itself to be much more stable than the American dollar.
China, who holds the lion's share of US dollars in debt, is considering selling US dollars off as "bad debt".
I don't disagree with your premise -
I just think that it is coming much sooner than you predict.

The sooner we face up to that fact, the better.

Yes, there's lot's of oil left (debateble point, of course).

WHO gets to use it is the question.

Outgrowing the Earth: The Food Security Challenge in an Age of Falling Water Tables and Rising Temperatures (W.W. Norton & Co., NY: 2005)

THE POLITICS OF FOOD SCARCITY

Chapter 10: Redefining Security
http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Out/Ote10_3.htm

With higher oil prices, isn't OPEC pushing the envelope ? Local sources of food may become the order of the day or else pay the OPECers their tribute. OPEC may actually end up making the US and Europe look good if they keep this up.

If we read your topic and responses, we'll give all of you DUers credit.

Respectfully,

Audio Al
Host/producer on Oregon Public Broadcasting, Portland, OR

To read more about OPB's Accessible Information Network, or to hear the 24/7 programming through a media player link, please visit the following page:

http://www.opb.org/accessinfonet

that will mean so much - (sarcasim)

Don't.

Joe

From time to time he picks up on conversations from DU and then they expound on them on the air.

We did it in the 1970s -- usually in the midnight to dawn hours -- before it was popular to have a man and woman doing talk radio together. I actually studied radio broadcasting at the Northeast Broadcasting School in Boston, MA and go a degree! Then, I worked on air and in sales for WARA, Attleboro, Massachusetts. That was my first and last paid radio job. I made more money in computer sales and marketing, so I didn't get to be the radio hot-shot my wife is! (Don't tell her... she's sensitive about it.)

Anyway, if we read your topic and responses, we'll give all of you DUers credit.

Respectfully,

Audio Al
Volunteer Host/producer on Oregon Public Broadcasting, Portland, OR

To read more about OPB's Accessible Information Network, or to hear the 24/7 programming through a media player link, please visit the following page:

http://www.opb.org/accessinfonet

Peak oil is here or right around the corner. The wells can't pump out any more gallons per minute than they are now. They've got the spigots nearly fully open. However, the demand for oil is growing tremendously. We've now reached the point where the supply can barely (or can't anymore) keep up with the demand. That's why the price is high, and will continue to rise. OPEC doesn't want you to know this is happening. They want you to think they're in control and everything's okay.

OPEC doesn't want to drive up the price to high, because then renewable alternatives become a viable alternative price-wise. It will also signal the beginning of end of the oil era, which would be a disaster for them.

For a better explanation watch this video:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=266&topic_id=97&mesg_id=97

It's one of the best video's you'll ever see - and one of the most important. It's just about math, simple math, but doing the math is scary.

:hi:

We need you here Joe! :hi:

that is stable, and that would happen.

I'm not sure where you get illegal from.

You and others have made several good points: demand overtaking supply, falling dollar, synthetics as a possible temporary weaning off of oil, American refinery capabilites....

It's all very depressing, really. And I think you're right. Our oil companies are not much more than commodities dealers. The thought of $200+/barrel oil and switching to the euro? Horrifying!

This nation needs a real energy policy and soon.

demand goes down and prices crash. It's a delicate game.

However, there are too many factors outside of their control at the moment. This is especially true as it seems speculation in oil has really reared its ugly head in the last few month. Speculation is driving the price ever-upwards.

And, we know what happens to speculative bubbles eventually.