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whoever the media fawns over until the NH Primary, and then even some beyond.
The vote totals don't matter all that much, it is about surprising the media.
If Edwards wins by any margin, he will become the giant killer who beat the top two with a fraction of the expense. It could propel him to the nomination if other early states catch the fever.
If Clinton wins by 3 percent, it will be how she is such a formidable candidate and even though the polls showed her behind, when all the votes were cast, Iowans woke up to the fact that her lead was simply insurmountable. If she shows third but statistically behind the first two, the story will be "how did the wheels come off of the Clinton juggernaut".
Unless Obama wins by a good sized margin, say 10%, he will not be the story. At this point, the media has him pegged to win. The story will probably be "No surprises in the Democratic caucus, let's look at the Republican totals where John McCain...". If he places third, he will get some press, but not good press.
If Biden or Richardson or Dodd get 15% or more, they are likely to be mentioned in the top-tier with the others and get some press. A third place finish for any of them would likely spell doom for any of the top three they supplanted. Any of them just breaking away from the other two might give them enough to energize their campaigns, the other two would probably soon fold.
Kucinich votes will probably be looked at as "protest votes", at least that is likely to be the story in the media. Unfortunately, I don't think the media will consider him to be a viable candidate even with a third place finish, although it would suck to be the top-three candidate he beats.
My impressions only. We will likely know in 24 hours if I am right or not.
What do you think the story will be, and what has to happen for that story to be the headline?
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