Oil.

I was just watching a report on the price of oil on CNN. The subtitle of the piece was "Tough times ahead?".

Tough times ahead, indeed. It's called Peak Oil and it's going to take your way of life away from you soon.

Some of us have been aware of "tough times ahead" for awhile now and we feel the desperation of the situation. I've tried and tried to enlighten you and warn you and YOU WON'T LISTEN.

So, when OIL (or the lack thereof) begins to ruin your life, your loved ones' lives, life as you have always known it, I don't want to come in here and see you crying about it.

You were warned and you chose to either pooh-pooh the fact of oil depletion, accused me and others of being nuts, or you simply moved along, ignoring the issue.

The lack of oil will be our undoing. This is your LAST warning.

If we run out of oil warned or not what are we going to do about it? Do you have a suggestion?

There is no other replacement. All the alternatives together can only EVER replace about 4% of the volume of oil we consume now.

There is no way out of oil depletion except to power down.

That's almost like powering our cars and home air conditioners on AA batteries.

This doesn't sound good. :scared:

Shopping for the Sine Wave inverters and 12v appliances also.

Working on the greenhouses.

What else can one person do?

uses gasoline produced from oil, you're doing especially well.

Otherwise, all the solar panels and inverters in the world won't get trucks to grocery stores or your car to drop off little Johnny at soccer practice.

If some clown here in Owosso could yank the engine out of a Corvair and do a conversion to electricity, Anyone can.

planning to grow the food.

Not hydrogen fuel cell "someday" crap but cars that they were already selling.

the first experiments with electric cars was sometime between 1832 and 1839? Early electric vehicles, such as the 1902 Wood's Phaeton, were little more than electrified horseless carriages and surreys. The Phaeton had a range of 18 miles, a top speed of 14 mph and cost $2,000. Later in 1916, Woods invented a hybrid car that had both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor. http://inventors.about.com/library/weekly/aacarselectrica.htm">Source

Just imagine if this technology had developed right along. If it had, today we would have super-advanced batteries and we'd have enough oil to last into the distant future.

Instead out current battery technology is allowed to remain as archane as the Baghdad Battery. After all, battery manufacturers can't have you walking around with batteries that last, can they? General Motors wouldn't be much without the internal combustion MOTOR, would they? Oil companies wouldn't make as much money if it was all going to battery manufacturers, would they? GE, and BIG OIL, KILLED the electric car.

if we could wrest control of our government from the rich & powerful, imagine how many other wonderful things might get done.

half the travel in the country -- right now.

It's pure market manipulation that is keeping large-format lithium and nickel metal hydride batteries unavailable. The lithium battery in your cell phone lasts 5x as long as a comparable-weight alkaline battery of ten years ago (if phones ran on gas, we wouldn't have those either). A large-format equivalent could power a car that would take you 300 miles and charge overnight.

Why aren't these cars available? That's the multi-billion-dollar question.

Good for you. I'd love to be off the grid even if there was no such thing as peak oil.

So it is not completely bleak.

Problem is, we will have to abandon the capitalist economic system, as a zero growth economic model would have to be adopted. We would also have to adopt a strict zero population growth policy.

Or, we can just try to steal what resources are left to keep the fast food bonanza going a bit longer, and which would most likely ultimately solve all population and resource depletion problems . .



. . as the mushrooms will most likely be sprouting.

No other comment is needed.

Sorry couldn't help it.

Very scary

Not unlike yourself, I have tried to warn people. They
refuse to listen.

We are headed for a train-wreck, and it will be more brutal
than most can imagine. Something like 20 years ago, we had
a rare snow storm in my city - within a single day, the grocery
store shelves were empty. The snow was mostly gone by the next
afternoon. How will such cities survive a real crunch? They
will not.

Turn on the news. Watch the crime reports. And we're in good
times, abundant times. What happens when people are really, truly,
stomach-growling hungry? They will survive. And if that means
using a baseball bat, a knife, or a gun - they will do so.

But few care. Few wish to consider it. Fewer still wish to
prepare.

Whoever wins the upcoming elections has my sympathy.

K&R, of course.

of the Peak Oil Forum right here on DU. Check it out:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=266

including a http://www.peakoil.com/forum8.html">Planning For The Future folder

and was basically laughed at by big oil. I've read all the debunked opinions about peak oil, but if one thinks about it it has to have some truth.

Nothing last forever! IMHO, we'll have oil for years to come, it'll be expensive because it will be hard to retrieve but we'll have oil.

My concern is the lack of alternatives, we'll have electric cars in 2040 are whatever but the problem is we need them now! I think when we get a different resident of the oval office this problem will be addressed, and a sense of urgency will be addressed as well.

So thanks for the warning, i'm listening but i can only drive less and conserve. It's up to the powers that be, to get ahead of this pending disaster.

Peace!

it takes between 20-50 barrels of oil to construct one car.

Electric cars? The best best will be converting existing cars. But then again it will still require oil to mine, smelt, manufacture and deliver the batteries to the builder.

I recently read a study, that America could easily reduce it's fossil fuel usage by 25% without batting an eye and have virtually no adverse effect upon the nation. but alas, that would require a real leader to steer the nation in that direction, until then we have to deal with a simian*.

That the only salvation I take in all of this is that the human race for all its apparent quirks, faults and bad habits is the single most adaptive species on the planet and I have no fear that certain people will survive.

We get what we deserve and living a life a fear ain't for me...and I agree that Peak Oil is real.

That being said, I wish that everyone would do all they can to change the situation but they won't and while my family and yours does their part, the reality is that planning for the failure and survival is not without merit for those that see which way the winds blow.

Peace.

just like how reptiles have survived... lol

there will certainly be a lot less of us. At which point the earth will be able to start healing.

But until then it will be a mad race down hill to the brick wall.

The main dude, Whack, is a crazy Bearded Dragon that will not tame, no matter what...he was rescued from destruction by me because he has a deformed foot and in the reptile trade this is a bad trait.

To your point, I like races but detest brick walls...;-)

Peace.

Cheers :)

I just hope we can survive on insects and little furry mammals. ;)

We've known this was coming and have been trying to position ourselves for it for years, largely thanks due to the warnings abundant here on the DU (though I don't know about YOUR warnings specifically...(but thanks anyway!)).

When are the first maglevs going to run from LA to SF? When are Americans going to start biking? It good fer yer health too, laddie!

Maybe it's not such a bad idea to 'leave some children behind'. At least they'll have to walk and that saves on gas...

then Bush energy cronies came along and pirated it all away to Texas. Now, with Schwarzie in power, the pirating is coming back, like the slow boil of frogs.

HAVE to do mass transit
Hydrogen cars are coming
Electric cars
solar energy
wind energy
its going to take a combination of things

cheers! :)

be it oil, climate change or the criminal neo cons causing it.

www.theoildrum.com

www.energybulletin.com

www.treehugger.com

Start with those. They will help you get your footing and which path you need to take to help you live.

Other than that:
-plant a garden
-learn a simple trade that can be used for barter
-investing in gold is nice but will have little to no value when people want to eat or fix something (it will just be a go between)
-invest in water barrels if haven't already, learn how to preserve, jar and pickle, read up on fermented vegetables
-establish a good relation with a CSA (community supported agriculture)
-talk to your neighbors and approach them (gently at first) about oil running short
-drive less or not at all
-take public transportation
-ride your bike
-take care of any and all dental needs now
-keep on top of and medical needs and research alternative meds
-get into shape or better shape :)
-learn to think long term

and most importantly...

read, read, read. Luck is nothing more than being prepared at the right time.

survivalists will die out due to selfishness and xenophobia. Community is the solution.

check out my DU Journal for a short series I did on a post oil society. :)

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Javaman/174

(follow the connected links back to the first entry)

Pumps will stop working.
No electricity.
Trucks won't run.
Food will run out.
Global financial markets will collapse.


Meh. Y2K went out with a fart.



We are an adaptable species.

Think of one thing in your life that doesn't require oil and get back to me.

Have a great day! LOL :)

I'm just not willing to eliminate reason and the possibility that over time, we'll adjust, adapt, and overcome.

case of adapt or die.

Love your signature lines, though!

Abbey Lives!

This is not the case and the comparison fails.

Preparations are begining..albeit slowly.

Ignore the fact that China and India, comprising, oh about 10X our population, thirst for something of "the American Way of Life" in terms of consumption.

Ignore what is already happening, even as these curves only begin to intersect slightly, and oil is still at or near the peak, and ignore postulating effects on global economy as these two curves proceed on their inverse directions.

Your analysis is oversimplified. You see things in terms of a human eye-blink, but a decade or two, even 50 years is a geologic eye-blink.

Yes, we have kept Malthus at bay with technological increases, but like any microbes in an enclosed petrie dish, which is strangely what the Earth resembles from space (perhaps a Vinogradsky column, as it has it's own internal ecosystem), eventually the numbers win out.

May I ask you what your scientific background is, if any? Have you had any microbiology classes? Ecology, even Eco 101? Do you understand the concepts of carrying capacity and overshoot?

I ask this not to be a jerk, but I cannot help but notice that your replies contain zero science in them, but for a touching faith in the technological cornucopia to save us again, which I am willing to admit is a possibility, though not a very high one.

Even IF we tomorrow began a Manhattan Project in Fusion, which is the only way we could provide enough energy for the amount of people we have already, let alone are going to have in 50 years, and this assumes (rather naively) that such wide-scale use of even Clean Fusion will not have an unintended impact on the Global Environment.

Because petroleum and NG products are literally used in virtually every piece of technology today, from the paints on tractors to the ubiquitous plastic packaging on everything these days to the chemical fertilizers that are absolutely essential for modern monoculture agriculture, so all the Clean Fusion Energy in the world isn't going to replace THAT.

Ever heard of the Eastern Pacific Subtropical Gyre, which is twice the size of Texas, better known as the Pacific Garbage Patch, with all it's attendant environmental impact? Acidification of oceans and the slowing of it's CO2 uptake capacity which buffers our environment from the impacts of civilization?

If you haven't, you should probably look it up, because the many environmental issues that are rapidly reaching "tipping points" go far beyond trying to maintain the energy inputs we need to maintain modern civilization without Malthusian population declines.

How about the fact that Arctic Summer Ice minima have lost the area of a California and Texas combined in a mere two years, and an area roughly the size of the Old USA east of the Mississippi in a mere 20 years?



Now, you have whipped out a couple spiffy one-liners. I get it. You have faith that technology will save us.

I ask you again, what is the extent of your scientific study in the areas of biology and ecology?

All of these problems combined, coming at the same time as a direct result of overpopulation in a closed system and the ability of technology to magnify even those tremendous numbers by orders of magnitude, together combine to form a Cat 6 event, and to say that only if it occurs in a literal eye-blink make it so is...well to have a touchingly naive faith that technology will again pull not just one rabbit out of the hat, but a dozen.

However, as a scientist myself, a molecular biologist who studied ecology, microbiology and environment in college, I cannot rule it out. There is still a chance it will happen like that, and we as a species will be able to stumble blindly forward and keep pulling those old anti-malthus technological rabbits out of our hat, but I don't think it is a very good chance, considering the number and intensity of the multiple problems we face.

Two last interesting bits of hard data to compare:





Looks like our lag phase lasted awhile, but it's over now and our exponential phase, thanks to the technology, has gone even faster than microbes in a petrie dish. Unless we escape our petrie dish and reach out into space colonization, which seems less likely with each passing year, eventually the Laws of Nature will reassert themselves, as they are now with Peak Oil and extreme, rapid environmental degradation.

"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell."
--Edward Abbey

What happens to the host when the wildly reproducing cancer cells finish their exponential stage?

Your reply will show your level of scientific understanding. Not that you have to agree with me, but what I want to know is how scientifically literate you are which will be shown in how you debate these points.

Humans are natural problem solvers.

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/192

Thanks for cut and pasting someone else's thoghts. I will watch it, but you already answered my question.

You know, I'd love to find a denier of (pick one, global warming, Peak Oil, evolution) who could even score a 50% on a scientific literacy test.

Oddly enough, there just aren't that many around. I'm sure it's just a coincidence, though.

Now, I'm off to watch your video. 'Bye. :hi:

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

:rofl:

You're right. How DARE a weightlifter think he is stronger than someone who doesn't lift weights. Just a conceited jerk to think he is, right?

How DARE a person who never played more than company softball think they can't hit a professional pitcher's pitches?

You know, what I have grown tired of is the "political correctness" that makes people who listen to Michael Savage think they know more than people who have studied.

And I am tired of paying lip service to people not in the know who pretend that because "opinions are like rectums, everyone has them" that all such opinions are equal.

Like the parable of the weightlifter, it just isn't FAIR that the person who never touched a weight isn't as strong as a weightlfiter. Unlike the parable of the weightlifter, and don't kid yourself the Bushies have taken full advantage of laundering this meme, because there's no obvious concrete manifestation of the relationship, today anyone with an opinion, like Michael Savage or Bill O'Reilly, runs around maintaining that they are smarter than people who have studied the things Savage and O'Reilly blather about.

Sorry, it isn't so... and never will be. But I tell you what, let's perform an experiment.

You run down to the local gym and try explaining to the biggest weighlifter that you are just as strong as he is. Tell him it isn't FAIR that he thinks he's stronger than you, simply because he spent all those days and hours lifting weights, and that he's just a conceited jerk for thinking so.

Then, let me know how that works out for you. Let me know the result of your glorious victory in the weightlifting contest.

Stupid weightlifters. Thinking a life of weightlifting makes them stronger than you. Sheesh!

K&R

Any candidates talking about this?

Crickets

Oh look, Britney....
:sarcasm:

But it's even worse than that (as you well know). We have a crushing convergence headed our way, and Peak Oil is just the leading edge of the storm front.

We're no longer facing Peak Oil impacts in 10 years, climate impacts in 30 years and a recession in between. I suspect that we are looking at three massive converging crises (collectively the 3E crisis: energy, ecology and economics), all of which are going to reach tipping points in about the same time frame. When that happens they will amplify each other in literally unimaginable ways.

Peak Oil is here now. Depending on which definition of "oil" you use, the peak was in either April 2005 or July 2006. The net oil export crisis is going to start biting major importers like the USA hard within 5 years, and will keep getting worse until the international oil market essentially vanishes in 25 years.

Climate Change is here now. The big early impacts are not going to be rising sea levels but droughts and flooding - disruptions of rainfall patterns that will hinder global agriculture just as Peak Gas starts boosting the world price of fertilizer. The effects are already visible and, contrary to our previous understanding that they would only become serious over the medium and long terms, will become globally disruptive over the next decade.

The economic crisis is here now. We're starting to see the unraveling of the global debt economy, starting in the USA with the sub-prime mortgage fiasco and rippling out to hit other industrialized countries. I understand that the global derivatives market involves about 8 times the total global GDP (around $500 trillion on paper), and it's essentially a house of cards. When the real economy on which this edifice is built stumbles, the whole thing is going to come crashing down around our ears. The result will be a global depression of indefinite depth and duration. The economic mess will mean a greatly restricted pool of capital to deal with such things as energy shortages and food supply disruptions around the world.

If we were facing just one of these crises at a time it would be very bad. We've already seen suggestions that in order to just slow down climate change we would need to reduce the world's CO2 production by 90% by 2030 or 2050. And that's only one of the problems. There are no alternative fuel solutions for Peak Oil that don't either affect the food supply (biofuels) or make climate change worse (coal to liquids). A global economic crash would slow our use of fossil fuels and the consequent generation of CO2, but would leave people everywhere more vulnerable to the effects of climate change (as well as all the other disruptions that poverty brings).

It is now time to be making urgent preparations - especially if you live in a large city, in an environmentally vulnerable area, have high levels of debt or dependent children. The water is already rising, it's time to head for whatever high ground you can find.

And not just solar, but all technological advances in general.

With regard to solar, efficiency has increased from 14% to 19% in just the last two years. One thing expensive oil has done is spur R&D advances in solar. One of the leading companies believes that the top three solar firms will reach grid parity within 2-4 years (and this is a company that has exceeded their own predictions in terms of both efficiency and capacity).

Furthermore, we can easily drastically improve the gas mileage efficiency of our cars, which will significantly reduce usage and give us more time to transition to renewables. Doubling of MPG could be done virtually overnight.

And while it is an anathema to say on these boards, nuclear energy can also replace much of our oil dependency as oil reserves are depleted.

I'm not much swayed by the doomsayers at the moment.

Do we use less oil today than we did in 1894? 1940? 1955? 1973? 1991? If it reduced usage, why would it make a difference if the efficiency of solar has increased from 14% to 19% in just the last two years? You want to increase the efficiency of solar so that people can do what? Use less solar energy?

I want to increase the efficiency of solar so that people can use less solar energy?????

Ummmm, let me try again for you:

The increased efficiency of solar reduces the cost per watt to generate. Increased efficiency, along with a decrease in silicon prices (high now but dropping as capacity is being ramped up) can bring solar costs to grid parity, i.e., it costs the consumer the same to generate electricity through solar as through current means. Solar at grid parity means oil and coal no longer need to be used.

Hope that helps.

"Furthermore, we can easily drastically improve the gas mileage efficiency of our cars, which will significantly reduce usage and give us more time to transition to renewables."

So an increase in efficiency of solar means more people can use more solar energy, but an increase in efficiency for our current automobiles will significantly reduce the usage of our current automobiles?

"The increased efficiency of solar reduces the cost per watt to generate. Increased efficiency, along with a decrease in silicon prices (high now but dropping as capacity is being ramped up) can bring solar costs to grid parity, i.e., it costs the consumer the same to generate electricity through solar as through current means. Solar at grid parity means oil and coal no longer need to be used."

It sounds like you understood me just fine. Increased efficiency causes an increase in usage. If you easily, and drastically, improve gas mileage efficiency, you will significantly increase usage, and give us less time and money(since you also said expensive oil leads to more R&D for solar) to transition to anything to where it would make a difference(if anything could at this point, since we won't deal with the impacts of what we're currently doing for decades).

If anything, you want a decrease in the efficiency of oil, coal, etc. If those sources are cheap, since they're much more dense than solar energy, solar won't be used. Well, it would be used, but not on any type of large scale.

That is why they were in different paragraphs.

And yes, if MPG standards doubled, we'd certainly use less oil. As the increases in gas prices have shown, the elasticity of gas usage is significantly < 1. A doubling of MPG would not cause a doubling of the miles we drive.

And no, I don't want a decrease in efficiency of oil. I want a decrease in oil usage. Two very different concepts. What I pointed out was that solar efficiency has been dramatically improving.

I hope you're ready for it.

I'm editing this to add a couple of items:

About oil:
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8TTS9580.htm">OPEC predicts supply troubles

Oil depletion effect:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/44db6c6e-bafd-11dc-9fbc-0000779fd2ac.html">Supermarkets face battle with suppliers

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

In economics, the Jevons Paradox is an observation made by William Stanley Jevons, that as technological improvements increase the efficiency with which a resource is used, total consumption of that resource may increase, rather than decrease. It is historically called the Jevons Paradox as it ran counter to Jevons's intuition. However, the situation is well understood in modern economics. In addition to reducing the amount needed for a given output, improved efficiency lowers the cost of using a resource – which increases demand. Overall resource use increases or decreases depending on which effect predominates.

In his 1865 book The Coal Question, Jevons observed that England's consumption of coal soared after James Watt introduced his coal-fired steam engine, which greatly improved the efficiency of Thomas Newcomen's earlier design. Watt's innovations made coal a more cost effective power source, leading to the increased use of the steam engine in a wide range of industries. This in turn increased total coal consumption, even as the amount of coal required for any particular application fell.

The population is growing, the previously third-world countries will continue to drive up consumption.

However, the resource here is the sun...and when we use up that resource we are well and truly fucked :)

I am plugged very firmly into the solar products industry. That is why I study both fossil fuel and alternative energy EVERY SINGLE DAY.

There have been advancements in solar panel and solar cell efficiency. But you don't seem to get it. Did you see me offer a solution to the problem of oil depletion? I didn't offer one. That's because IT'S TOO LATE! There IS NO SOLUTION.

Why not solar? Because it is not now nor will it ever be practical for use in cars and trucks and the semi haulers that bring food to your local grocery store. Ethanol? That's real smart. Replace food crops with fuel crops. Coal to liquid? Methane? Hydrogen? Your own nuclear powered Hummer? NO. NO. NO. NO.

I didn't make the OP to debate whether or not there is a replacement for OIL. THERE ISN'T ONE. ANYWHERE! I didn't offer a solution in the OP because we have waited too long. We should have been on it since Jimmy Carter sounded the warning 30+ years ago. But no, we ignored the warning then. Corporate greed has driven our natural resources into brick wall. Coporations own the politicians. And now it is too late. The WARNING I speak of in my OP is meant to encourage preparation, not mitigation.

I sit here at this computer while watching this 2008 Presidential Campaign and I have only heard the world "oil" from one candidate. It was Barack Obama in his victory speech following his win in the Iowa caucuses. If you just sit for two hours, undistracted, and listen to any media outlet covering the candidates, you can see and hear how little they are actually saying about the things that really matter. "Change!" "Change!" "Change!" What "change" are they talking about? Every damned candidate is running on "change" - just like every other presidential election that didn't feature an incumbent. And the only change we've ever seen in this country is its own decomposition.

Oil? Fossil fuel energy? THERE. IS. NO. SUBSTITUTE.

My warning to you - and you - and you, especially if you expect to live another ten years or more, is to PREPARE. For what? The end of the world, AS WE KNOW IT.

Cover our ears, sing loud songs, shriek and smear, even give ourselves up to evil monsters like Bush and his Minions.

Of course, none of that works...ask any alcoholic. No, but what we WILl do by this insane denial is wake up in the gutter face down in the muck with our pockets rolled and our kidneys removed by Our Dear Leader, or what seemed like in in our oil-drunken stupor.

Nice post Texas Explorer. K & R!

Give me back my broken night
my mirrored room, my secret life
it's lonely here,
there's no one left to torture
Give me absolute control
over every living soul
And lie beside me, baby,
that's an order!
Give me crack and anal sex
Take the only tree that's left
and stuff it up the hole
in your culture
Give me back the Berlin wall
give me Stalin and St Paul
I've seen the future, brother:
it is murder.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
The blizzard, the blizzard of the world
has crossed the threshold
and it has overturned
the order of the soul
When they said REPENT REPENT
I wonder what they meant
When they said REPENT REPENT
I wonder what they meant
When they said REPENT REPENT
I wonder what they meant

You don't know me from the wind
you never will, you never did
I'm the little jew
who wrote the Bible
I've seen the nations rise and fall
I've heard their stories, heard them all
but love's the only engine of survival
Your servant here, he has been told
to say it clear, to say it cold:
It's over, it ain't going
any further
And now the wheels of heaven stop
you feel the devil's riding crop
Get ready for the future:
it is murder

Things are going to slide ...

There'll be the breaking of the ancient
western code
Your private life will suddenly explode
There'll be phantoms
There'll be fires on the road
and the white man dancing
You'll see a woman
hanging upside down
her features covered by her fallen gown
and all the lousy little poets
coming round
tryin' to sound like Charlie Manson
and the white man dancin'

Give me back the Berlin wall
Give me Stalin and St Paul
Give me Christ
or give me Hiroshima
Destroy another fetus now
We don't like children anyhow
I've seen the future, baby:
it is murder

puters, flat screens, microwave ovens, battery chargers, electronic gizmos, etc. Las Vegas never turns their lights off why should we? I'd even bet that most people, and not just here at DU, are on puters, with TV's going, lights, sound systems...it all adds up, or down depending on how you're looking at it so yeah...

with me you're preaching to the choir

Look for $5 gallon. Why? Because there ain't a damn thing you can do about it.