http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/01/09/michigans-clusterfuck-prelude-to-a-national-clusterfuckMichigan’s Clusterfuck: Prelude to a National Clusterfuck?By: emptywheel Wednesday January 9, 2008 1:25 pm
I'm not the only one calling MI's primary next week a clusterfuck--one of the state's top Dem consultants, Mark Grebner, thinks so too, though he doesn't use the word clusterfuck:
Of course, we may get lucky, but that's not really "a plan". With Clinton bouncing back tonight in NH, it's plausible that she and Obama will go round after round, with neither scoring a knockout.
Imagine next that Michigan's "primary" results in a Clinton landslide on January 15, caused mainly because the opposition will be confused and splintered by the available options. I don't know whether that will happen, but it may.
The consequence might be that Michigan's would-be delegation would prove critical to forming a majority. Not at the Convention, most likely, but during the wheeling and dealing phase that leads up to it, as the two sides struggle to assemble a majority.
If this comes to pass, the fight will be between Clinton's effort to seat Michigan, and Obama's struggle to uphold the DNC sanctions. One side extending pseudo-grace and forgiveness to our transgressions, while the other side asks in pseudo-good-faith, why he should be punished for complying with the DNC's rules and following their instructions.
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My question is: is there some reason this can't happen?
I'm marginally less worried than Grebner is about the Democratic side (though trust me--he's a lot smarter about MI politics), mostly because I'm taking naive solace in the fact that "uncommitted" will appear on ballots, meaning Edwards and Obama supporters won't have to navigate what would be effectively a write-in vote, but with a legally significant word, to support their candidate. That doesn't mean Democratic voters won't choose to vote in the Republican primary, doesn't mean that those cross-over voters won't be decisive as they were in 2000 for McCain, and doesn't mean either party will get a real read of the support for its various candidates from the clusterfuck. It just means that Hillary will win by a smaller landslide (hey--with both Edwards and Obama supporters voting on the same line, who knows?), which will make the clusterfuck imagined by Grebner slightly less severe, though still a real possibility.
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