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How accurate do you think Vegas "odds makers" are on Presidential elections?

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Winterblues Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-18-08 02:07 PM
Original message
How accurate do you think Vegas "odds makers" are on Presidential elections?
Last night on the Colbert Show a prominant Vegas "odds maker" placed the odds on all the candidates. Hillary was even money, Obama was two to one, Edwards was twelve to one and McCain was four to one. I don't recall the others but they were below these odds. Have they been accurate in the past, and do these odds sound about right to you?
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-18-08 02:09 PM
Response to Original message
1. I'd have to check the odds they place on other things...
I would think their success would be the same across the board, right?

Welcome to DU, Winterblues!
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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-18-08 02:21 PM
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2. They're rarely accurate this far from the election.
They had Rudy as a winner until recently if that tells you anything.
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-18-08 02:40 PM
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3. 7-5 nt.
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lurky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-18-08 02:43 PM
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4. They don't know any more than the rest of us.
The same with those political futures markets. People are betting based on current conditions, but the bets and odds will change as conditions change. I see them more as snapshots of current opinion than as any kind of predictive tools.
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BuyingThyme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-18-08 02:44 PM
Response to Original message
5. I'm not sure, but I suspect the odds are based on what people
are willing to bet.
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