Australian troops 'still needed in Afghanistan in 15 years'

AFGHANISTAN will be struggling to secure its southern regions 15 years from now, with Australian troops still needed to combat terrorism, a think tank says.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute says Taliban militants and others seeking to disrupt the democratic Government in Kabul will still be conducting bombings and irregular insurgencies in southern and eastern provinces in 2023.

"In 15 years time, Afghanistan is likely to be divided geographically," the institute said in a paper published yesterday.

"An optimistic vision sees the Government in Kabul with a tangible writ across the north and west.

"Provincial leaders will respond to central directives because Kabul is delivering the benefits of international assistance.

"In the south and east, Pashtun provincial leaders will take part in national governance and several provinces will be passive. However, areas of Kandahar, Helmand and the eastern provinces that border Pakistan will suffer from insurgency."

Many intelligence agencies believe that al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden could be hiding on the Pakistani side of one of the most porous borders in the world.

Australian troops will still be needed in the central Asian nation in 2023, the paper says.

more at link: http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/australian-troops-still-needed-in-afghanistan-in-15-years/2008/01/31/1201714153314.html