With six months to go before the general election, lots of people on DU note the various polls measuring potential contests between Obama or Clinton against McCain -- frequently pointing with glee to the weekly fluctuations that sometimes favor one candidate or another. I hope everybody realizes how silly that is. Six months is an eternity in politics and May polling is just about worthless in terms of predicting how the election will go.
For a quick reality check, here is one of the more extreme demonstrations of this obvious reality to come along in a while:
Poll: Black Support Helps Clinton Extend Lead
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead over Sen. Barack Obama, her chief rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, is growing among African-American voters who are registered Democrats, and particularly among black women, a poll said Wednesday.
Sen. Hillary Clinton is the top choice of African-American Democrats, a new poll suggests. Among black registered Democrats overall, Clinton had a 57 percent to 33 percent lead over Obama. That's up from 53 percent for Clinton and 36 percent for Obama in a poll carried out in April.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/17/poll.blacks.democrats/index.htmlCNN -- October 17, 2007
Things change, don't they?
As we move closer to the general election, the mass of people who do not vote in the primaries or pay any attention to the perpetual cable news gab fest will take a look at the two candidates, and the election will be decided by how that shakes out.
You can make reasonable arguments based on a wide variety of polls taken this far out -- and the general negative mood that shows up definitely bodes well for our party's chances this fall. But, presidential preference polls right now mean next to nothing.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(447 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
