Prove me wrong...PLEASE!

No more Kool-aid bullshit about Peak Oil. A couple of people made unequivocal remarks in http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3306098&mesg_id=3306098">this thread that there is no such thing as PO. Well, now cut the bullshit and PROVE IT! Here is the least of my side of this issue:

Think issues with oil supply can't reach you? Ask the people in these countries if they used to think that too:



And here:

http://dieoff.org/42Countries/42Countries.htm">THE WORLD PETROLEUM LIFE-CYCLE

Remember this: We import 60% of our oil every day. You know why? This is why:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfpus2A.htm

And if you need this plotted with a crayon:




People view "Peak Oil" as if it is a conspiracy and not a real physical phenomenon. IT'S NOT EVEN A THEORY! What it means is Peak oil is the premise that at some point, the world’s oil production is going to peak. It does not mean that we will run out, just that we will no longer be producing more and more oil every year. Instead we will be producing less and less. Demand of course will continue rising, which will result in increasing oil prices. Without getting into too much detail (read Hubbert’s Peak) here is some basic data.

The following graph showing oil finds per year along with use:



And here is world oil production:



And this from the US Army College:



http://www.almc.army.mil/alog/issues/JulAug99/MS406.htm">Fueling the Force in the Army After Next—Revolution or Evolution?

Now, Peak oil naysayers here's your chance to produce your evidence. It's your turn now to make your case rather than spouting un-supported and cornucopian bull hockey. You show me your evidence that we are not current at the stage of Peak Oil...hmmmmm?

PROVE ME WRONT! I WANT YOU TO. But you all go scurrying like cockroaches when I've asked for you to back up your bullshit before.So, YOU ALL are extended the opportunity to shut me up about PO. Go ahead, I dare you.

Otherwise, henceforth shall ye please STFU and let me sound my warnings without your interference?

I really would appreciate either one or the other.

...please list.

talking about who controls it once it's out of ground, we're talking about physical limits. We're talking about how much can be EXTRACTED over the course of that bell curve of production demonstrated by every source I've cited including the US Army.

I'm talking about the fact that this is a REAL phenomenon proven over and over and over again. People say "Bull! I've heard about PO for years and it never has happened yet!" That's pure unadulterated BULLSHIT! I've demonstrated that it is REAL with every source I offered.

YOU LIST THEM BECAUSE IT DOESN'T MAKE A DIFFERENCE AT ALL TO THE ISSUE OF PEAK OIL.

I think there is still some oil left..
maybe two or three years worth. Then
it's very iffy.

This is our great opportunity to move
out of oil dependency into alternative
fuel.

not the issue. The issue is that when you have less of a commodity, and more people that want that commodity, they start bidding it up until someone gives. That's Commodities 101 and everybody accepts that until it is applied to oil. And it's the physical limit of 75 Million barrels per day that we've bumped up against. If there's one Rembrandt or one Van Gogh painting available, how do you think bids reach into the millions? Because that is a precious thing that is rare. Oil is going to get rarer and rarer and the price and those bidding for what oil is available will rise higher and higher.

The world with NEVER pump more than 75 or 76 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensates. PERIOD!

Still waiting to be proven wrong with real evidence. Please? Pretty please? I'm humble and can admit when I'm wrong and I want to be wrong. So, someone prove me wrong without using all your default blame-game strawmen memes.

...given that the world has essentially had just over 100 years of oil to-date. Before that it was coal and hydro and wood.

The next dominant source of energy is anyone's guess, but from an economic perspective it has to be third and fourth generaction nuclear technology with fission nuclear power reactors becoming feasible 30 to 45 years in the future. With the right priorities, a clear plan and visionary leadership there is no reason why that can't become a reality.

So why allow a deliberate economic dark-age and population collapse to take place engineered by the oil companies and the military? That seems to be what the charts suggest.

Screw the oil. Bring on the depression and the bread lines. That there may be bread 50 years from now instead of just dust and death.

full every week, and the price went up cause you and your penny pinching friends decided to withhold them, waiting for $100, at which time they planned to buy up all the nickles cause you got its speculation deregulated too..

Bu$hitCo is nothing but a Mafia, getting a cut of the cost of everything everybody needs.. one way or the other

read "the Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein cheap at amazon.com used

the real physical oil field phenomenon of Peak Oil? Where is your proof that peak oil isn't a real thing? And, if it isn't a real thing, then how do you explain all those countries' production curves? Do you see a peak on each one of them? It's EIA and IEA data being used. Where is your data that shows that you're tinfoil hat theory is correct?

Would you like me to go get more proof for my argument? I can and I have the time.


EDITED TO ADD: You don't seem to understand that this post is a challenge to those of you who talk about PO out of your asses. And, yes, you are one of those I am referring to. PROVE YOUR ARGUMENT!

PSS: BTW, I have the hard cover version of The Shock Doctrine and I've read it too.

Therefore peak oil can't possibly exist right?

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/nov2007/db20071115_045316.htm?campaign_id=rss_topStories


"Petrobras announced Nov. 8 it has found between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels of light oil and gas at the Tupi field, 155 miles offshore southern Brazil in an area it shares with Britain's BG Group and Portugal's Galp Energy. Tupi is the world's biggest oil find since a 12 billion-barrel Kazakh field was discovered in 2000, and the largest ever in deep waters. Perhaps more important, Petrobras believes Tupi may be Brazil's first of several new "elephants," an industry term for outsize fields of more than 1 billion barrels."

I'm all for exploring and implementing renewable energy, but the problem with the whole "Peak Oil" theory is that it assumes that all the major oil fields on the planet have already been discovered.

Hubberts theory is to look at the peak of oil findings (past ages ago globally) and then extrapolate peak production. That's how Hubbert correctly predicted peak US production (1970).

What the Brazilian finding mean - at most - is slightly less abrupt downwards slope of the Bell curve production.

"Peak Oil" proponents claim.

There are many areas of the globe that have only received a cursory glance. My completely scientifically unsupported view is that we probably have at least a century of relatively easily-accessible oil...even accounting for increasing demand.

...and as supporting evidence, I offer this Brazilian find.

have the scientifically supported view that the globe is pretty well searched for to potential places to find oil and nobody is disputing that peak findings happened ages ago. Not 100% searched, but that is insignificant. What is significant that new findings and production coming on line don't keep up with depletion of oil fields now in production. Easy access best quality has peaked years ago, there's only deep sea and polar and very heavy left undeveloped, which certainly are not easy access.

that is expected after 2012 is enough to completely destroy economic growth across the ENTIRE planet. It's a 2% declining plateau right now for the past 2 years and look what is already happening on this planet.

That translates not into raided store shelves, but to NO STORES. Where will you get your food then?

Doesn't take a genious to connect the dots.

it will last the world a grand total of at most 9 months of more borrowed time. And that will be stretched over the production life of those fields, maybe 20-30 years? Something like 300,000 barrels per day, max. While the world will need 100 million?

I don't think so.

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11043022

Look up other sources for how much oil is there.

Yep. There's so much oil some people can't even find drilling rigs because they are all in use pumping out a decline in overall production of 2% year-over-year. Go figure. But Brazil is attempting to hire as many available deep-water rigs as they can find.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a8V5CHwdycrk&refer=home

http://markets.chron.com/chron?GUID=5480745&Page=MediaViewer&Ticker=xom

I can't find it right now but it seems, according to an article somewhere on Bloomberg.com, that the initial reports of the size of those new oil finds was significantly lower that first reported in lieu of further measurements, as stated in the Chron.com article linked above.

At any rate, as WORLD demand (don't give me no shit about US consumption being down) for oil continues to grow, oil supplies will forever decline. They are using almost every rig on the planet just to maintain 74 million barrels per day. Go look up Rig Zone and go read about oil tanker movements, etc. After a while, you'll get the picture.

Yes, oil is a declining non-renewable resource (unless you have a few hundred million years to wait).

I just don't buy into the "end of the world tomorrow" hype.

"end of the world as we know it" becomes. The whole reason for keeping this issue alive is so that we can make the adjustments that need to be made.

I have an interesting discussion to show you regarding the City of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, and how they are planning both for peak oil and climate change. Please watch these videos and consider the things they are saying. They are planning for this stuff. Have a look-see:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHqxYusD2e0">My Grandma Owned a Car - Part 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8r5DCTgRqg&feature=related">My Grandma Owned a Car - Part 2

And there's lots, LOTS, more on YouTube about people and cities all over the world openly talking about and doing something about peak oil and, yes, climate change. Meanwhile, have a look at the ads during commercial breaks on CNN. Mostly oil companies attempting to assure you they have plenty of oil but, oh, by the way, we are investing in wind and solar. Give me a goddamned break.

start bringing it in. Too often these finds don't pan out to be exactly what they're firsted touted as.

seems to be that we have been on the Peak Plateau for a few years (demand growth surpassing stagnant supply -> higher prices and demand destruction among the poorest) and no numbers show otherwise - and that the downhill will start in a few years. And that is when the shit really hits the fan. The current food crisis is just a warning shot.

Couple of very basic things to understand:
1) there is no deus ex machina solution, no replacement for oil that would allow growth economy to keep on growing.
2) PO is just manifestation of the basic problem of every civilization, the horror of the current globalized civilization is just its scale threatening all the life on this planet. The basic problem of civilization is pure common sense and can be denied only by very twisted mental gymnastics (aka insanity): Any dynamics which destroys its own preconditions for continuity is self-destructive. In other words, any socio-cultural metabolism that depletes top-soil (= historically & enviromentally accurate definition of civilization) which all life on land depends on, instead of maintaining top soil or adding to it is fundamentally suicidal. Cancer is good analogy of such grow-or-die behaviour.

Destructive (non-sustainable) civilized farming enhanced by extensive use of fossile fuels just depletes the soil much faster while polluting everything else. Humanity is way in the overshoot, fueled by injection by fossile fuels and especially oil, and will face massive Die-Off this century, there is no way around that.

Collapse of civilization does not mean extinction of our species, not necessarily or even likely (nukes are of course a possibility), so that raises a new sense of responsibility. Iroquis federation had a princible to take into consideration seven future generations in each decision. We need to learn better and whine less.

No matter how much oil there is in the world, if you can't afford it, it isn't useful to you.

Oil as a cheap, practical energy source is over.

There is no more equivocating.

Our "one time gift" is running out.

Time for some REAL discussion of where energy future lies.

Whether or not we're at or past that maximum might be argued about, but surely not its existence.

oil that will EVER be produced is reached and then begins an inexorable decline that will last until there is no more oil AVAILABLE.

Look people, this is simple to understand. Look here:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfpus2a.htm

Look at the column labeled Year-0 where it meets "1970's" resulting in the number 9,637 (x 1000 barrels per day). That was the point of peak oil production, or 1970, in the United States. The very reason that the Arab oil embargo of the '70s was so bad is because the Texas Railroad Commission finally admitted that we were no longer able to provide all our oil needs and would thenceforth need to import the difference in order to grow the economy. People were all like "Fuck the A-rabs. We'll just use our own oil!" To which the TRC replied, "We don't have it."

Add to the US peak all the other countries that have now peaked including Australia in 2000 and Great Britain in 2006 and there's 61 or so other countries past their peak. Extrapolate this over time to the entire world and what we find is that the entire world's oil production, which is taking all oil producing countries lumped together, peaked somewhere between December of 2005 to the middle of 2006, perhaps as late as June. Since then, we've been on a 2% parabolic decline year-over-year, which has resulted in what is being referred to as an "undulating plateau" which is itself being caused by actions and reactions to peak oil - IOW, oil producers detect a problem with production suddenly beginning to decline so they throw everything at it to get the graph to turn back upwards and then downwards as consumption demand eats away at the tenporary gains.

High Russian official (IIRC Gazprom) announced some time ago PO Russia in 2008. The final nail in the coffin, so to speak, if that is true.

The price of oil will rise till it hits a point that it becomes more expensive than alternative energy at which point people will switch to alternative energy sources. The increasing price of oil will also initiate further alternative energy research and development which would otherwise never happen if oil was plentiful. The Doomsayers who are crying the end is near because the earth has a finite amount of oil which we will never consume all of fail to look at the fact that we will move to alternative energy way before we even get near tapping the last reserves.

the end of oil doesn't necessarily mean the end of us. It's all in how we deal with it RIGHT NOW. Which is what I'm advocating. But before people will act, they must believe there is a problem. And all the evidence is there but for the taking.

What hampers research and development on alternative energy is costs, if it's cheaper to use oil than do research people will use the oil, when oil gets expensive they do the research. Look at the explosion of fuel efficient and alternative energy cars in the auto industry in the past couple of years. 10 Years ago most Americans would not have spent thousands of dollars more on a car that got better gas mileage today they will. That is because 10 years ago the ROI on a fuel efficient car was not there, how long would it take them to recover the cost on a car when the price of gas was under a dollar. It's a non-issue, the days of cheap energy are over but we most certainly are not going to be riding around in horse and buggies any time soon.

In terms of EROEI there was nothing as compact and bountifull energy source as oil flowing from Earth, liquid sunlight. Technological research cannot change the laws of physics, nor the facts of society that has for hundred years built a infrastructure dependent on endless flow of cheap oil.

Oil literally oils the wheels of global capitalism and on economies of scale (the big numbers and how they relate) there is nothing to replace it. The metabolism of energy flows global civilization is being deprived from it's primary source of growth: the end of story for growth economics.

issues with oil:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmPvHqO87j0

I rest my case.