Oil transition (PO going main stream)

This main stream article about PO also confirms Russian PO (extremely alarming!!!):

"But with the oil price at a record $126 a barrel, more than 1,000 per cent higher than a decade ago, fears of the end of the hydrocarbon age have seeped into the mainstream. Many in the industry itself now accept that supply constraints are shaping the price as much as rampant demand. Calls for greater investment to ease these constraints formed the crux of many of the discussions at last month’s meeting in Rome between energy ministers of the world’s main oil producers and consumers. A few weeks later, analysts at Goldman Sachs and elsewhere, as well as ministers of the Opec oil cartel, predicted that prices could reach $200 within two years.

So are the peak oilists right? A series of recent events certainly appears to lend credence to those who argue that the world’s ageing oilfields are being sucked dry amid China’s and India’s determination to lift themselves out of poverty and the west’s reluctance to give up the luxuries of modern oil-dependent life.

The fact that Russia’s oil production declined almost half a percentage point in April, the first drop in a decade, was shocking enough news from the world’s second biggest oil producer, whose output was growing at a rate of 12 per cent just five years ago. But Russian oil executives have gone a step further: Leonid Fedun, vice-president of Lukoil, told the Financial Times the country’s production may have already reached its peak.

Just days later Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer and by far the largest exporter, confirmed it had put on hold plans to increase the kingdom’s production capacity. Ali Naimi, Saudi energy minister, said the demand forecasts he was reading did not warrant an expansion past the 12.5 million barrel/day capacity Saudi Arabia’s fields will reach next year, following a laborious investment of more than $US20bn. King Abdullah, the country’s ruler, put it more bluntly: “I keep no secret from you that, when there were some new finds, I told them, ‘No, leave it in the ground, with grace from God, our children need it’.’’"

Read the whole thing: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/peak-oil-ESSA9?OpenDocument

i was scared about peak oil for a long time. but sometimes i think that there is a possibility it's not true.

if you want to justify outrageous rates, spread and do nothing to seriously dispel rumors that your product is extremely scarce, meanwhile work tirelessly to discredit those attempting to sell alternative, better products that may be found anywhere.

i believe that if big oil thought their product was almost gone at any point in the last 20 years or so, they would have invested their efforts in finding and developing alternative fuels rather than condemning such efforts.

maybe it just helps me get a couple hours sleep, but it's to be considered before panicking (well, before i panic).

the real market is only rarely, truly rational, in spite of its propagandists.