The 2010 Senate Race: Who would you like most to knock out? What open seats mean the most?

Based on some other threads, it seems to be time to take a preliminary look at the road ahead.

A note on this thread and Arlen Specter. Since Skinner's rules are that we support Democrats, and (theoretically) he is a Democrat, I'm not going to make him a choice. That said, "other" will be a choice, and one can respond as one wishes.

I'd also welcome comments on what seats you feel will be difficult/important to defend. The GOP has already said Boxer (CA) will be targeted. Other seats I see being a challenge to hold will be Burris (IL), Lincoln (AR), Bennet (CO), Reid (NV), and Murray (WA)

On edit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2010

I'm not sure Bunning knows that he IS one.

Nevertheless, we could do without his 6th century perspective and voting record.

The GOP will target Boxer because they collectively cannot abide a vibrant, smart, tough, and effective woman in that position. I predict she wll mash her opponent handily.

Reid may have a tough go of it in Nevada.

I agree that she'd beat all other comers handily.

They are going to try to pull a Daschle on Reid. The problem this time is that the GOP has far less leverage. In 2004, it was made clear that if Daschle was reelected, Ellsworth AFB would close; this would be a huge blow to the economy of Rapid City. They won't have a card like that to play this time -- and we could play that card against Thune (but I'd counsel extreme caution in doing so).

celebrity has faded quite a bit from his beat-Gray-Davis days.

I like Arnold's wife a whole lot better than I like him.

Boxer will carry the Bay Area by c. 80%, I predict. She's amassed considerable support up and down the state over a period of years. She remains very popular with many environmental groups and even among some voters who are not "political" but who do not want the environment tampered with or taken over by "developers" any more than it already has been. They recognize an integrity in Boxer that will be enough to keep the going to the polls to vote for her, where they might pass on someone like Diane Feinstein.

California's hard to predict (even though I used to live there), so I won't lay money down this early. But I'm sure hoping Barbara Boxer is returned for another term. Californians -- and the rest of us too -- need her in there as long as she is willing to serve.

I don't think the GOP can tempt him into a racer against Boxer. He couldn't do his 'Terminator' routine, she'd end up cast as sarah Conner. You're right that the shine has come off Arnold, he'd have a hard time beating her. And why would Arnold (pro-choice, pro gay marraige) want to become the most junior Senator of a medieval minority? I just don't see it. I think he's angling for a cabinet position. He really likes Obama, I think he would much prefer an executive position where he got to run a department and go to meetings with Obama, to being a junior legislator sitting in caucus listening to the likes of Orrin and Mitch drone on and on.

And President Obama would get a lot of 'bipartisan' credit for putting another republican in his cabinet.

And it sounds very plausible, too.

Your analysis of Arnold's situation sounds close to the bone. And not least, a Cabinet job would keep Schwartzenegger out of the Senate race altogether, which would be a good thing.

I think the open seats in blue states are more important as they increase the likelihood of adding progressives to the Senate.

:dem:

-Laelth

...and that seat seems reserved for Beau Biden.

As a practical matter, Illinois is an open seat, as Burris doesn't stand a chance in the primaries. Valerie Jarrett, maybe?

Delaware might just be a problem, truth be told. I am not sure Beau will get it. I think Illinois is in the bag. I hop Burris doesn't fight for it. If he politely lets go, I am not worried there at all. If he bruises his competition, it could get ugly, but I think that when the President enthusiastically endorses the Democratic nominee, it will be a done deal.

:dem:

-Laelth

He's becomming more powerful every day around here...

sigh...

Democrats are stronger there than you think.

We had two until Bob Graham retired. Actually one and a half since Bill Nelson is a very conservative Democrat.

I'm thinking Rep. Kendrick Meek would make a good Senator!

He is one of the Bush lapdogs. Need you say more?

news.

The bad news is that Charlie Crist is said to be keenly interested in the job.

God, I wish Betty Castor had defeated Martinez the first time.

Under his leadership, the Party couldn't find a race that they couldn't find a close race they couldn't lose. I wish Dean had been there in 2004.

sure. I haven't entirely ruled out the possibilty that the GOP cheated and that Castor actually won that race.

..just like Kerry's response to the Swift-Boat smears. She should have hit back quickly and hard.

I would love to see run out of town on a rail--Richard Shelby and Lindsey Graham.

...as for SC - Would you settle for knocking out DeMint in the meantime?