Time For A Trade-In-Prius-style hybrids may become the first victims of the disruptive technology

shift that's hitting the auto industry.

To most of us, Toyota's snazzy Prius hybrid still seems like the cutting edge of cool, the latest and greatest technology in cars. But nine years after the Prius was introduced in the United States, some are calling it obsolete. "The hybrid is yesterday's technology," says San Francisco Mayor and recently announced California gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom. To be sure, Newsom has a political ax to grind—he's trying to lure electric-car makers to the Bay Area, which already is home to Tesla Motors, maker of a sexy electric roadster, and Better Place, another startup focused on greentech transportation. But Newsom has a point. A new generation of carmakers is shunning the traditional hybrid format in favor of pure electric powertrains (driven completely by batteries) or "plug-in hybrids." Indeed, the auto industry is being disrupted by rapid waves of new technology, a phenomenon that feels normal for the folks in Silicon Valley but is perhaps unfamiliar for the folks in Detroit. "We are on the cusp of a period of technical innovation like the automobile industry has never seen," says Mike Jackson, CEO of AutoNation, the largest U.S. auto retailer. "There will be more change in the next five to 10 years than there was in the last 100."

The first victim of that rapid change may be the Prius-style hybrid. "The traditional hybrid is an in-between solution as we make the transition from gas engines to plug-in hybrids," says Henrik Fisker, founder and CEO of Fisker Automotive, an Irvine, Calif.-based company whose new $87,500 sports sedan, called the Karma, uses a plug-in hybrid powertrain. Fisker, a legendary automotive designer who worked at BMW and Ford before striking out on his own, says the Prius-style hybrid is "very complicated" and "doesn't make sense." While the Prius delivers 46 miles per gallon, Fisker says the average owner of a Karma will get 100 miles per gallon—and those who rarely travel more than 50 miles at a time will do even better.

That's because in a traditional hybrid, like the Prius, both the gas engine and the electric motor drive the wheels. In a plug-in hybrid, you have both an electric motor and a gas engine, but only the electric motor powers the wheels. The gas engine only generates electricity to recharge the battery pack. If you don't travel beyond the range of the battery pack—about 50 miles—the gas engine never starts up, and you run in pure electric mode. In theory, some owners of plug-in hybrids might never use the gas engine at all.

Even the automakers in Detroit are jumping on the plug-in hybrid bandwagon, though they don't use that name. The Chevrolet Volt (due out in 2011) uses a plug-in hybrid powertrain, but General Motors calls it an "extended-range electric vehicle." Chrysler calls its forthcoming line of plug-in hybrids (due out in 2013) "range-extended electric vehicles." Chrysler is also making pure electric cars, like its Dodge Circuit EV roadster, which has no gas engine and can travel only 150 miles before needing a recharge. One thing Chrysler hasn't announced is a traditional hybrid like the Prius. Ford and GM both make Prius-style hybrids, but they represent a tiny percentage of overall sales.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/195662

You don't have any bias do you?

GM and Chrysler are gonna produce a better car as soon as they get bankrupt biz done? What a laugh. Toyota is King, because they put up and put out. GM is practically homeless.

Toyota is king you say?

"Click"

Bite me.

I love it when Americans root for Foreign companies, what stupid fucking shit. Thank God for my ignore list, otherwise I'd have to put up with flamers all day long. One of these days they'll figure out the future isn't Foreign made. But for now, stupid is as stupid does.

Toyota passed GM last year as the world's King car maker. Facts are hard to swallow, eh?

Who's King now? Who won second world war?

It's bizarre for you to talk about "facts" while pushing a metaphor (which is, by definition, not a fact.)

"Who won second world war?"

Does that make the Allies "King"? Of course not.

And GM is their serf. They could by GM tomorrow. Hey, good idea, eh?

They dig a hole and then expect you to cover them up.

do pass it on ;) Perhaps Toyota's sales are in retribution for Hiroshima? I dunno.

and they are BEHIND year to date against GM, especially because the Chinese LOVE THEM BUICKS and not them Japanese cars. Facts is acts, something some people refuse to understand.

Way to read a post before responding. :hi:

If they were, they wouldn't be metaphorical. Your objection to saying 'toyota is king' (based on being the sales leader, as asserted) because there's no such thing as a car monarchy is just idiotic. Way to miss the point...which is why I think you need to start over and learn the use of a metaphor as well as the definition.

So what?

American car parts are made everywhere on the globe.

I am not rooting for any automaker, but car manufacture is truly a global event these days.

I love it when people chide me and others for being dogging on American cars.

I drive a Nissan Altima, Made right here in the good ol' United States of America!

GM makes

Equinox - Canada

The Aveo and Esteem in Bogota Columbia
Also make the Aveo in Egypt, and Korea

Grand Vitara, Rodeo are made in Quito, Ecuador

Allure, LaCrosse, Impala, Chevrolet Camaro, Silverado, Sierra made in Oshawa, Ontario, Canada

Chevrolet C2, Chevrolet HHR, Saturn Vue made in Ramos Arizpe, Mexico

Escalade ESV, Escalade EXT Avalanche, Suburban, Yukon XL made in Silao, Mexico

Wow, Buy American!!!!

and I want someone to keep making them... The Matrix is just not the same.. I get 40 mpg on the freeway with my 2004 Vibe with over 100,000 on it. I don't care who makes it.. someone grab the Ponitac Vibe and keep on keeping on with that great car.

Someone should have been hauled up for not promoting the Vibe more. It is just a great car, that gets great milage.. wonderful headroom for my tall husband.. built for the American love of comfort body, and turns on a dime. Everyone I know who has one, loves it.

:)

You want them to lose their jobs?

"Fair and balanced"?

Why? You have a problem with the truth?

Here's a hint: if you want anyone over the age of 16 to take you seriously, don't say droolingly sycophantic things like "Toyota is King" especially with the bloody capitalisation of King. And especially when you didn't post a single rebuttal to the OP besides your cloying declarations of love for Toyota. I'm almost embarrassed for you.

What a dumb, stupid response. Showing a denial of the real world.

I wouldn't buy a Toyota. I would buy a new GM if they had a car that was worth the money. I buy beaters that I fix myself because I'm not a ripoff artist or a corporate slave who sucks on the teats of the banking system.

What I can understand of that post is inane, and the last part makes no sense whatever. In any case, I've lost interest.

Go away like a good serf/slave to a corporation that is a ripoff artist.

The car industry is changing and GM will fade away because they couldn't change. Really, it's a bad thing, but that's how it goes in a capitalist system. Deal with it.

Wethinks.

some chrysler products are not as good as similar toyota products.

you should buy a new toyota so you pay the japanese autoworkers benefits. i know my local toyota dealer wishes you`d buy one...he has 60 of them in a area that has 14% unemployment.

When there were many different standards and many small companies all producing a wide variety of products. Prius now have a huge marketing edge and a loyal costumer base that might be hard to beat. Toyota is going to have an easier time moving costumers that like the Prius into the next generation of plug-in Prius than other companies are.

As long as gas is cheap, sales of hybrids are a novelty, 2% of total sales. Oh and loyalty, bullshit, Toyota owners are as fickle as the next person, give me a break.

Toyota was the first out. Built a loyal costumer base. Those are the facts. I see nothing in your rants that disproves them. Your auto industry rant is not very interesting I'm done with this thread.

The main reasons it's been low lately are because of a closer look at speculators and the worldwide slowing down of the economy.

This guy predicts $200/barrel oil soon. If you ignore his rantings about Obama and general orneriness, he makes some decent points to consider (he doesn't believe speculators had anything to with high oil btw):



("$200 Oil Is Coming While We Waste a Perfectly Good Crisis (Part 3)")
http://seekingalpha.com/article/130146-200-oil-is-coming-while-we-waste-a-perfectly-good-crisis-part-3

Check out the comments section, a real food fight actually.

we are a-w-a-s-h in oil, over 500,000,000 bbls. are currently IN STORAGE in this country alone. And all of those guys (speculators) who predict $200 a bbl. oil are the same clowns who caused the last crisis.

I'll pass on your wisdom.

peak oil isn't about how much we have. It's about how much of the remaining amount is cost effective to get out and process. Don't forget that demand from foreign sources is increasing as they are becoming increasingly more accustomed to a Western way of life, and in part, that means using more oil. If we are 4% of the population using 25% of the energy, do you not think something has to give?

Many of the theorists who initially proposed peak oil aren't conspiracy nuts, but people who worked in the industry for years, not the least of which is Marion Hubbert, who worked for Shell Oil.

If by "in storage" you're referring to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, that stands at 719 million barrels right now.

I'm not sure what qualifies as "awash," but 719 million barrels is about a five-week supply for the US.

While it's true that speculators took advantage of the situation, it's not true that they caused it. The world supply of oil has stopped growing, and the economy is premised on growth. One of the early economic consequences of this is price volatility, which is exactly what we're seeing -- first a spike up, then a spike down.

Count on prices reeling up and down several more times, but longer-term, the supply trend is down.

we are told all of the time by those hoping for doom and gloom. Since I was a teenager. And that was in the 60's. And longer term, as we reduce our reliance on petroleum, the supply trend will be stable. And we used approx. 20 million bbls. a day during the boom times with 9 million bbls. a day of gasolene. But that's OK, some of you folks want to interject your agenda, the article was simply about the next generation of EVs. :eyes:

A few of us think that it will almost surely rise. That seems highly relevant to a discussion of hybrid tech. Also, you think "the supply trend will be stable". But is this taking into consideration the new economies emerging? World population is growing exponentially, demand of energy can't keep up with an overall Western lifestyle.

DO you think Brazil is alone in methanol production? When the corn lobby stops getting it's way, do you think for one second that the change to other organic materials won't occur? Hybrids are the technology of the past (remember, Toyota began research in 1995). EV is the future, and don't believe for one second hydrogen will supplant electric. Too many problems in creating an infrastructure to support hydrogen vehicles.

Best car we have ever owned and have not had one problem with it.

We both agree that we will trade it in the day that Toyota sells a plug in version

:eyes:

I guess that makes you an eco-superman then?

Attack the individual while letting GM fuck over everyone else, eh?

I mean, how does what he said deserve a snotty reply? He was just stating his experience, you know, like people are wont to do on a MESSAGE BOARD.

why do people have to tell us of their love for the Foreign iron they own? I love my cat, my kid, and my country. But I don't tell the world how much I love my Foreign, imported job-stealing car.

If this was a thread about horse racing, or Title IX, or Justice Scalia, then yeah, that would be a little weird.

Anyway, I'm sure you know that it's not so simple anymore as 'American' car companies. Many American car companies have cars made and/or assembled elsewhere. Some foreign companies have plants in America, albeit in right to work states (traslation:non-union), and I too have a problem with that. I also have a problem with American companies closing down plants in the USA and setting up shop in cheaper locales, but that is a problem far more general than any particular car company, that goes to globalization. Unfortunately, Bill Clinton helped bring globalization's more deleterious effects into fruition just as much as any Republican.

"why do people have to tell us of their love for the Foreign iron they own...?

Maybe for the same, albeit corollary reason so many people tell us that when we do love them, we're un-American, or some other tired clap-trap... :shrug:

Just a guess though.

can afford and use every day. And I don't mean something along the lines of that horrible REVA/G-Wiz thing they have in the UK. I'd prefer it to be made in America, and I'll simply refuse to buy any 4-wheeled shit that comes out of China.

Just put a cheap price on it and some buttmunch will rave about it's benefits until they get pancaked in a crash.

India (Tata Motors) is the maker of the RAVA/G-Wiz I mentioned. I'd rather walk.

In India
Gas prices are exorbitant
roads are narrow, cities are crowded
speed is minimal compared to here...
The new matchbox car by TATA is ideal for Indian cities.

For Indian cities, and maybe to bump about in London. Not in the US.

...on the way to liberation from petroleum.

We have yet to see any of these plug-in hybrids in the showrooms. I would hope that a collapse in the auto industry doesn't force Detroit back into the same old internal combustion mode.

You don't think that maybe there is no profit in EVs now do you? Of course not, Toyota and Honda have YOUR best interests at heart. Which is why they have increasd production of SUV's and trucks again.

Hybrid tech is still a lot newer than what auto makers are used to producing, and not many consumers really want hybrids yet.

Instead of wasting trillions of dollars fighting for oil in the middle east. The thing that annoys so many of us is that we already started to subsidize that kind of research and then it was dropped, and the consumer never saw anything from it. The EV1 project was ended in 1999 and the Volt isn't scheduled to come out until late 2010. We lost an entire decade there!

But of course there are still cost issues which is why we need tax breaks, subsidies, and stricter mpg requirements to push the technology along. Look at the incredible advancements over the course of a decade in the size, heat, weight, power and battery life of laptops for example. Once the technology gets out there in the market, the advancement will happen quickly. Tesla has the right idea by starting at the ultra high end, then moving down to the luxury sedan market and hopefully eventually being able to push the technology to a place where it is affordable for everyone.

I believe Toyota is working on a plug-in-prius.

Really, all they are is a Prius with better batteries and a plug.

It's what we're all waiting for. It's why we bought a hybrid to hopefully help push the technology along. If these new electric cars come from new companies in silicon valley, even better.

What's your question? :shrug:

http://www.lastgascar.com/the-5-biggest-electric-car-myths/

The last time I read anything on it- the difference was that the Prius engine produces electricity at about 30¢ per KWH, compared to a national average of 10¢ retail home electricity.

I see people driving Prius around here, and none of them are in silent mode. I'm guess that the engine kicks in as soon as they turn the AC on. Right?

:eyes: You can drive your Prius around with the a/c on and still get in the high 40s mpg (I average around 47).

I don't think you understand how they work. It's not like the Prius is only efficient when it's in "silent mode." The car is only silent (engine shut off completely) when you're stopped at a light or if you're driving very slowly (under 30 or so, very slow acceleration). This alone saves lots of gas that you waste while idling in traffic. Because the electric motor and gas engine work together you can be driving with the engine on but still getting way better mileage than a non-hybrid because the electric motor is contributing power. The engine will also sometimes run when stopped if it needs to charge the battery.

The question went to the plug-in car which uses only electricity and claimed a 150 mile range. I asked what happens to the range when you use AC.

By the way- using your average MPG and my worst MPG it will take 15 years for me to spend in gasoline what you spent up front. Of course, if the price of gas doubles again, you can cut that to 7.5 years, and my Tacoma will still be sweet.

But still, my last car was a jetta that averaged about 25mpg and I put 120k miles on it. So that's 4800 gallons. If I can put the same mileage on the Prius and average a 45mpg that's 2666 gallons, a savings of over 2000 gallons over the lifespan of the car, average of say $3 a gallon = $6402, that helps equalize things a little. And more importantly that's less fossil fuel consumption, lower carbon emissions, and it helps support these new technologies.

Anyway, my response was snotty because yours seemed snotty. It seemed like the typical dismissive response to electric cars like the use of a/c suddenly makes the whole thing worthless and nobody but you ever thought of that. I have no idea what the a/c use does to an electric car that isn't even on the market yet. These kind of numbers, like mpg figures, are just estimates anyway. I would assume that a realistic estimate would into account average driving patterns, including average a/c usage but I don't think any standardized tests like that exist for electric cars yet.

And the average American drives something like 30 miles a day. I would hope the a/c isn't eating up the equivalent of 120 miles worth of power!

Your mileage will drop a little with the AC on only because the engine has to kick in to charge the batteries more often, but it's not much of a drain. Down here, we have the AC on ten and a half months a year, and if I'm averaging 46 mpg I feel like a gas hog.

I was actually wondering what using AC would do to the range of the 100% electric car.

in that the drain would be fairly light and would mainly result in the gas engine kicking in a little more often. The cars the article describes just sound like a modified Prius with a more powerful electric motor so that the gas motor is required to power the drivetrain. The AC would therefore drain the batteries faster, making the gas engine kick on more often. Thinking it through, it almost sounds less efficient than the Prius style hybrid, since the AC would compete 100% of the time with the drivetrain. But electric ACs are getting more efficient, so maybe the drain isn't too harsh.

Just guesses. Good question. The problem with articles like the above is that they are based on press releases from the marketing department, not the engineers, so we get one side of the discussion. :)

and can never get amazingly more efficient, although
marginal improvements in efficiency are still possible.

Tesha

In those early cars, the A/C compressor was run strictly
by the gasoline engine.

Now, in the second generation Prius, the A/C compressor
is run by an electric motor and it can be run from the
hybrid battery. But because the A/C takes a lot of power,
there's no question that the gasoline engine has to run
a lot more when the A/C is switched on.

Tesha

I love my Prius. It's the greatest car I've ever owned. But I'd love to see it become an outdated gas-hogging pollution belching dinosaur, and the sooner the better. Economics will prevent it from becoming worthless too quickly, since people won't be able to buy a new car just because they come out. Recent Prius buyers will use their car for the normal life cycle of a car, then buy the newest technology on their own economic schedule. Their old Prius will replace someone else's older clunker.

Meanwhile, progress means moving on. If the damned American auot makers had cared about anything in the past, maybe we'd already be further along, but while Toyota and other overseas manufacturers were busy trying to make the best car they could at a profitable margin, American car company management was busy trying to make the most money they could off the cheapest product they could get away with. If American car companies change their priorities, they can compete again. Sounds like maybe they are getting that message, or at least part of it.

My worthless observations, anyway.

What would the average American buy, assuming they even have money for a new car in this recession.....

Who can afford even the $20-$25K hybrid right now? Until the battery prices come down to the same level of cost of a conventional ICE drivetrain, electric and plug-in hybrid are going to continue to be "tomorrow's" technologies.

Oh, yeah, and at $40K, the Volt is out too. Who the hell does Gavin think is buying cars in this country?

NO WAY can an average person afford these. I can't afford a Prius, much less a darned almost-$100K novelty vehicle. And, as long as they're that pricey - they're just that and doomed to stay just that - novelties.

Get 'em down to $15K or less then we could talk.

You can buy an el-cheapo and then keep filling it up with ever-more-expensive gas -- or . . . .

When I was buying a new car, the Prius was over $30,000 and gas was lower. I did a spreadsheet that showed, based on my driving pattern, that I was better off buying a conventional car with low gas milage as long as gas was under $7.50. So, I bought a Honda Fit for $16K. I put 8 gallons in about every three weeks.

However, hybrid prices have come down. You can now get the Honda Insight for under $20K. So, the calculus might have changed. However, gas would still have to go pretty high for it to be worthwhile for me to switch at this point.

It all depends on your driving patterns.

try $12/hr today. Maybe $15.

(rough estimates, I lack time right now.)

if you drive 15,000 miles a year. Is it worth paying about $7,000 more to get about 15 MPG more?

Especially if you expect gasoline prices to shoot back up once this recession ends.

How long would someone have to drive a Fisker Karma to hit the break-even point?

On edit: the Prius is also a larger car with a hatchback (something I consider vital in a small car), so that also plays into the equation of whether or not it is worthwhile to pay more for a Prius.

a Corolla.

a Corolla would probably be the better choice. The less millage you acquire on a car, the less important the MPG is going to be. Of course, this rule means that if you drive 25,000 miles a year, you will get your money back from buying the Prius in less than 3 years. I bought mine when gas prices were at $3 and the next year they were near $4. So, I made up the difference in less than 2 years. Now it is all bonus.

People buy them because of the lower carbon emissions, for less fossil fuel consumption, to support these developing technologies, and because it's actually a pretty fun little car.

Who can afford even the $20-$25K hybrid right now? Until the battery prices come down to the same level of cost of a conventional ICE drivetrain, electric and plug-in hybrid are going to continue to be "tomorrow's" technologies.

Oh, yeah, and at $40K, the Volt is out too. Who the hell does Gavin think is buying cars in this country?

Bought it new for like $8K. Drove it over 100K miles and sold it to my aunt when the speed limit went from 55 to 65 in my state because it couldn't keep up. I didn't mind going slower than the rest of the traffic, but the idea of being rear-ended by a truck didn't appeal to me.

Now I can't afford ANY new car, and it's getting to the point I can't even afford repairs to the 20 mpg guzzler I am driving now.

i have one in my garage but no money to get it running....

and who even buys a car with crank windows any more? Except for the econo-boxes, power windows are pretty much standard in everything. As is power everything ese. I read that the average new car has added nearly 300 lbs. in computers and sensors in the past decade.

There ya go.

The hybrid and variations of it are here for a while.

I never understand why car companies say, "well, our models will be better in a few years than our competitors' are now." The competition gets to build new models also.

Look at VCRs when they first came out. In the 70's, only the rich had these things. By the eighties, most households had them.

The question is really whether the internal combustion engine has a VIABLE alternative in the next ten years. Will that alternative solve some of the problems that it claims to solve? Such as, electricity has to come from somewhere, and for most people over the next ten years will come from coal. Coal is not exactly clean burning.

Clean coal is largely a sham, ethanol is a total sham, and the problem is fossil fuel is so darn efficient.

I differ in many opinions here in supporting the building of nuclear plants. I don't think it should only be nuclear, the best bet is a combined profile of energy sources- nuclear, wind, solar, biofeuls other than ethanol, hydro, etc. I think they are needed to get us from the fossil fuel era to x. We don't know just what 'x' is right now.

"Prius" and "butt ugly" or "bubble butt", maybe, but never snazzy.

Snazzy? Seriously, Newsweek? Snazzy? :eyes:

And it doesn't match the vast majority of car buyers.

Tesha

:fistbump:

While Toyota has done an outstanding job with the car, dual powerplants are quite complicated and expensive.

It does however provide a very solid transitive technology platform to all electric cars in the future.

(such as "battery swapping" or fuel-cells), electric
cars can only occupy a niche. While it's fine that
the car can go (say) 1.5 times my daily commute,
every day, in and out with overnight recharging,
too many of us need to exceed that range too often
to allow us to have an electric car as our only car.

By contrast, hybrid cars have unlimited range. So a
"plug-in hybrid" will continue to be the sweet spot
for quite a while to come.

Tesha