Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?

Key Concepts

* Food scarcity and the resulting higher food prices are pushing poor countries into chaos.
* Such “failed states” can export disease, terrorism, illicit drugs, weapons and refugees.
* Water shortages, soil losses and rising temperatures from global warming are placing severe limits on food production.
* Without massive and rapid intervention to address these three environmental factors, the author argues, a series of government collapses could threaten the world order.

One of the toughest things for people to do is to anticipate sudden change. Typically we project the future by extrapolating from trends in the past. Much of the time this approach works well. But sometimes it fails spectacularly, and people are simply blindsided by events such as today’s economic crisis.

For most of us, the idea that civilization itself could disintegrate probably seems preposterous. Who would not find it hard to think seriously about such a complete departure from what we expect of ordinary life? What evidence could make us heed a warning so dire—and how would we go about responding to it? We are so inured to a long list of highly unlikely catastrophes that we are virtually programmed to dismiss them all with a wave of the hand: Sure, our civilization might devolve into chaos—and Earth might collide with an asteroid, too!

For many years I have studied global agricultural, population, environmental and economic trends and their interactions. The combined effects of those trends and the political tensions they generate point to the breakdown of governments and societies. Yet I, too, have resisted the idea that food shortages could bring down not only individual governments but also our global civilization.

I can no longer ignore that risk. Our continuing failure to deal with the environmental declines that are undermining the world food economy—most important, falling water tables, eroding soils and rising temperatures—forces me to conclude that such a collapse is possible.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=civilization-food-shortages

with food. Something to think about. It's got me responding. Heading out to sow seed now...

http://www.thecalloftheland.com

"In a disquieting rush to secure food supplies, financial speculators around the world are gobbling up farmland in developing nations and causing land prices to soar. Some call it the new colonialism, but most just call it an old-fashioned land grab.

"Land grabbing and food speculation are not just overseas phenomena; they are also happening in North America...

"This global grab of farmland and supplies raises fundamental questions, for it arises in the context of a worldwide recession born of a crisis in faith (the credit markets), a crisis in shelter (housing), unstable fuel cost, and widespread hunger.

"Now there are ominous signs of worsening food crisis in the making this year..."

(snip)

to add to the evidence.

a lot of our food comes from everywhere but here. and could stop coming in the blink of an eye.

And the truly scary part is that most of the easily accessible resources needed to rebuild civilization are long since used up.

This might be humanity's only shot a establishing a high technology civilization.

It's pretty much impossible to go straight from firewood to nuclear fusion or other sustainable energy source, even *with* an ocean of available fossil fuels we haven't yet done it.

it would help a lot. I know this post will get flamed, but everyone seems to ignore the obvious, and frankly this would also help in fuel consumption, health issues, and environmental issues.

I don't typically get "preachy" about this, but it just amazes me that so few will give the idea credence, and will usually respond with something along the lines of "but I like steak!"

Great. No problem liking something, but the average American eats far more than the RDA of meat and doesn't need to, and that eats up all kinds of resources which could be used for other foods more efficiently.

at all, and I agree with you. I limit my animal intake to once or twice a week, and then have small portions. In a typical meal, the ideal ratio is about as much animal protein as will easily fit on the palm of the hand (and not piled up a few feet!), half the plate at least should be fresh vegetables, about a quarter whole grains, with a soup or salad on a separate dish. Most carnivores eat far too much meat, and it's generally reflected in the health of the nation. Diseases like cancer and heart disease would plummet if people halved or quartered their consumption of animal products.

I'm not even getting into the environmental damage agribusiness creates in the raising of animal products. that's a terrifying topic all by itself.

I am not advocating anyone stop eating meat if they choose not to, just that we should rethink our approach to our diet and farming industry. It's hard because I do feel that diet (and other aspects of life) are and should be about choice, but they should be informed choices too, and not just informed by the people selling you the product.

Make meat more expensive, and people will eat less of it eventually. Make gas more expensive, and people will drive less eventually. The list goes on and on. Seeing that is the easy part.

The difficult part is actually making things more expensive, since everything that we do is geared toward making things cheaper, so that more people have access to it, since it's only fair. Then we increase the tax on products that we don't like, and that just creates a lot of arguments, which isn't very efficient.

Really. Water and other resources (waste treatment, feed crops, etc) are often subsidized for the large factory farms, and that brings meat prices down - as do the practices of factory farming in general.



Vegetables and grains are in fact cheaper than meat already - unless I am buying something fancy, my grocery bills are always pretty low for buying mostly fresh ingredients instead of expensive pre-made processed stuff.

I do agree that it does not always seem that way, but until relatively recently, meat was considered a luxury item and used fairly sparingly in meals. I'm not calling for a tax on meat, in fact we're already being taxed on meat to make it cheaper; something which is almost never discussed (especially by the anti-tax/anti-government teabaggers, but I digress).

Frankly, I am not even advocating for a switch to vegetarianism, just a more conscious effort put into our dietary habits and food industry practices, and if nothing else a reduction in consumption.

The underlying threat here is basically an economic one. It is in effect a world wide version of the Irish Potato famine. Technically, there was no "famine". There was plenty of food. The problem was that the locals could not afford to purchase the food they were raising. To some extent that is what the author is getting at in this article. World wide there is a huge capacity to produce food. However, unless the economics are there to pay for it and transport it, certain locations where famines occur don't benefit. Worse, water shortages can occur "up stream" of better crop lands. If up stream is in another country, an imbalance can occur where the people with the water don't have much food generation capacity, and those with the capacity can't get the water.

Desalination and hydroponics are probably in our future because of these issues. That probably also means major changes in our diets because the whole grain-beef connection will become way too expensive. And you still have to figure out how to get failed economies to be able to buy the food.

From the article:


“No country is immune to the effects of tightening food supplies, not even the U.S., the world’s breadbasket…”I

They are fleeing food shortages...Over the last year or so there have been food riots in at least 20 countries...

There is enough food for everyone to eat.

It's poor governments and corporate greed that limits the availability of food for those who hunger that makes it seem as though there isn't enough.


I've been aware of Haiti's political food problems for a while.

good point...

And anyone who doesn't think that civilization could suddenly crash, isn't thinking at all.

But the author here would do well to keep Malthus in mind.