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Nate Silver: Tea Party Bears Beck's Imprint

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Emit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-10 09:57 AM
Original message
Nate Silver: Tea Party Bears Beck's Imprint
No surprise here, I guess, but interesting discussion with some tea 'baggers chiming in to comment in response to Silver's analysis:

Wednesday's NYT/CBS poll on the 18 percent of Americans who identify themselves with the tea-party movement was myth-busting in certain ways. Tea-partiers are wealthier and more educated than most Americans, the poll found. They are largely disinterested in the existence of a third party. And they don't particularly care about social issues (three-fifths favor some form of legal recognition for same-sex couples).

Another stereotype, however, rings true: tea-partiers are disproportionately attached to, and perhaps influenced by, FOX News. And they are particularly enamored of Glenn Beck. Nationally, just 18 percent of people have a favorable opinion of Beck (the majority have no opinion whatsoever about him). But most tea-partiers do. Do the math, and you'll find that 59 percent of those who do think highly of Beck consider themselves a part of the tea-party. This is, in fact, the single biggest differentiator of any of the items that the NYT asked about: not ideology, not any particular political belief, but whom they watch on television...

~snip~

Academic studies have found that FOX News in fact has quite a bit of ability to persuade voters and reformulate public opinion. That Beck (whose program debuted one day before Barack Obama's inauguration) has become one of its prominent voices may help to explain why the tea-parties have become so influential, and why public opinion appears to have shifted so dramatically within the past 18 months. FOX may, or may not, have a role in directly promoting the tea-parties. But its opinion programming has become the water-cooler around which the tea-partiers gather.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/tea-party-bears-becks-imprint.html
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johnaries Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-10 10:20 AM
Response to Original message
1. About that "myth-busting" poll,
Has anyone considered that the respondants misrepresented their education and socioeconomic levels? Of course, it is entirely possble that they are "wealthier" than the general public because they tend to be over 45 as the story indicates, and those people have had much more time to accumulate more wealth than the general public. I could not find in the story exactly how much "wealthier" they are than the general public. But the wealth difference is not really my concern here.

As far as being "more educated", considering the level of ignorance displayed by Tea Partiers that is very hard for me to believe.
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-10 10:29 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Being able to name elected representaives is in polling the hallmark of being informed
All Tea Partiers know Reid & Pelosi
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The Magistrate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-10 10:38 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Quite Likely, Sir, You Are Right About Respondents Mis-Representing Income And Education Levels
These are things people often pad out a bit, and certainly the polling firm does not maintain an investigative arm to verify such statemenets.

The 'wealthier' claim is particularly shakey, as it consists in a responses indicating 55% of 'tea-baggers' have household incomes above fifty thousand dollars, while only 50% of the general public have such a household income. Even taking the statement at face value, this hardly justifies a claim these people are 'wealthier' than the general run. Given their greater average age, one would expect some such result from a random sample, as income tends to increase with age, peaking on average in the years preceding retirement. A collection of perons in their fifties should be expected to have incomes slightly above the average, whatever their political views. Similarly, the blinding whiteness of the 'tea-bagger' demographic would be expected to drive their average income somewhat above that of a random sample of the populace as a whole.
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DeschutesRiver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-10 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. This probably hinges on how one defines education and wealth
Edited on Sun Apr-18-10 11:47 AM by DeschutesRiver
I know a tea bagger type kid who is 30. Huge racist, as is her family who still support her. Actually, her grandfather made the family money, and she is the second generation to sponge from it. From the outside, they still look like average working class, somewhat hicks. But they live on their own brand of welfare, ie not a one of this family is capable of holding a job outside of the family structure. They are all low class serfs of grandpa.

She got her degree from University of Phoenix - and swear to god, she barely attended any classes to achieve that MBA (undergraduate was at a horse/ag school that was no more challenging than her small town high school, known for turning out idiots). I read some of her MBA papers - most were just stuff cobbled from wiki and the slim pickings of her run-on sentence mind. But she is edumacated! And while she really is wealthier than the general public, her "wealth" isn't sustainable by her own efforts, nor will it last much longer because 2 generations of stupid are making so many dumb moves that the bulk of it is almost gone.

No matter what average college you go to, there are some that are just taking the student's money, and letting them sit in a chair and pretend to be getting an education. These students merely bought themselves a piece of paper which gives them the right to claim they have higher education. But they come out as low-IQ and uneducated as they started

As to the wealth claims, no matter the age bracket, take away these folks ability to abuse credit and then we'll see how wealthy they really are. I suspect most of their claimed wealth comes from credit card handouts, and playing other shell games.

They have the appearance of being wealthier and more educated but it is an illusion.
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AnArmyVeteran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-10 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. I heard tea baggers are more educated cause they repeated all the grades in school at least once...
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rucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-10 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Ha!
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DeschutesRiver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-10 11:49 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. +1. That made me chuckle too.
Edited on Sun Apr-18-10 12:35 PM by DeschutesRiver
Because is true with these teabaggers that it isn't the quality of a person's experience that counts, it is the quantity.
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Beaverhausen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-10 11:40 AM
Response to Original message
7. Fox didn't manage to get McCain/Palin elected, nor did it stop the dems from gaining a majority
I know they are influential, but not as influential and they would like to think.

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moondust Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-10 12:07 PM
Response to Original message
9. Glenn Beck's army of morons.
I think they lied on the poll in an effort to lure other gullible idiots into enlisting. Who would want to associate/join up with an army of poor morons?
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