Strong Job Growth Looks Likely for the Rest of 2010

MUCH MORE AT:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/4/20/858311/-Strong-Job-Growth-Looks-Likely-for-the-Rest-of-2010

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There's no way we can continue to borrow and spend 10% of our GDP at the federal level alone.

It's sad how easily they manipulate a few statistics and get people to believe it.

There is NO recovery. In fact, we are still in the same recession that started in 2000 - the housing bubble masked it temporarily and allowed the powers that be to claim a positive (but anemic) growth rate, now they are trying to do the same thing with the federal debt bubble.

But there's simply not enough money out there to sink into UST on an indefinite basis at the rate we are consuming.

People who look at these economic conditions and think we are recovering are naive. It's like watching someone irresponsibly run up their credit cards and mistaking that for wealth. It's not; it works only until the card is declined.

As a country, the national credit card decline date is rapidly approaching, and it's going to be VERY ugly for the unprepared.

Why is that?

Where were all your hotshot economists then? Why don't you name some and we'll look at the record, see what they were saying in 2005-6 at the top of the bubble. Bet you dollars to donuts that 99 out of 100 were saying stuff like "housing prices can't go down", "it's a new paradigm", etc.

Don't take the word of self-declared authorities, look at the fundamentals yourself and come to your own conclusions.

The ONLY reason they can even pretend there's a recovery underway is because they made legal Enron-style accounting. That works up to the point where the cash flow is insufficient to cover immediate needs, then the default chain-reaction gets set off again. If you thought Lehman/Bear Stearns caused a problem, you just wait until BoA and Citibank have their turn.

so please explain how you rewrote the definition to suit your agenda.

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So how on earth can you claim "and is continuing to worsen"

Jobs up? Nonsense. One (barely) positive print over two years, spurred by temporary Census hiring, is not "jobs up". And the funny thing about these numbers, they tend to get revised afterward - always in the downwards direction. Which you would know, if you studied economic issues at all, instead of just taking it from the horse's mouth.

GDP is most definitely not up - cratering tax receipts prove it. Remove what the government has borrowed and the GDP is down almost 14%!

Manufacturing is not up, either, go grab some numbers and we can talk about what you're seeing. This country produces less and less every year, as our productive capacity get sent offshore.

As far as the stock market goes... yeah, it's up because the Fed poured TRILLIONS into it, and the laws were changed to ALLOW companies to lie about their financial conditions. When the Fed has to take that back out (and they absolutely must), all that hot air goes poof - and with it, your pensions, 401(k) plans, investments, and whatever else you got out there that the Goldmans of this world can steal.

Really, you would do well to learn about economics from something other than self-interested politicians and corporate media companies.

you should be talking about.

I find it interesting that with all of that information he laid out, you were not able to refute it with even one SCINTILLA of your own.

Perhaps that would be because beyond the Propaganda that you Copy/Pasted, you have absolutely ZERO facts or thoughts of your own.

This exchange is all people need to know about where you are coming from and what you know about the Economy.

Checkmate.

You're done.

Where were cites or even facts? Your boy claimed mfg is down. I know for a fact that is false and produced non-US data. I also know for a fact GDP is up (since when do we get to exclude bits of GDP to make a point? Where debt-funded outputs excluded from the initial comparator?)

I don't have a clue who is arguing here as I rarely if ever read names, but the negative ninny you seem to be defending provided only biased opinion, not information.

Can you disprove that? No, because it is simply an unsupported opinion I am claiming - just like the opinions that Notedev wrote as if they were fact. He didn't prove them, so no one has the burden to disprove them. Just as you don't have to prove you are not notesdev.

Notesdev actually did not lay out anything concrete enough that it needed refuting. Now, its true that he .. or you have thoughts of your own - no one else would lay claim to them. I always think it is good to assess predictions by looking at how they did. Notesdev, from his own opinions made a prediction last August for the market in November. We are now a full quarter of a year past then - and his prediction was extremely off base.

There is no need to refute that there has been 0ne long recession since 2000. There is a definition for "recession" and what he said is not true. He said that no economist predicted the housing boom as long ago as 2006 - I gave him a book by Krugman that did so in 2003. As Krugman is a prominent, prize winning Princeton economist, who writes for the NYT, I think that counts.

And NO we manufacture more and more each year. Even our percentage of global output is barely down and exclusively due to the sudden capitalismn of a country with 5X our poulation and a single economic decider.

Here is real data on mfg output.....

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnllist.asp

The second Excel file down is what you need. US remains #1 and is growing in mfg output. Facts.

Not so, there have been at least as many times they were revised upward.

Where exactly did you learn about economics? or the stock market?

I hope no one on DU thought you were an expert and pulled all their assets out of the market in August 2009 fearing the 30% decrease you predicted. They would have missed some solid gains. Given that post, I wonder at your chutzpah in speaking of what others don't know. I assume that there are many here with degrees in economics - from distinguished Universities.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=114&topic_id=68834&mesg_id=68838 OOPS, not that good.

What exactly is your extra special definition of "real economy"? Also, look at the shape of a parabola. It is always the case that when you move from a recession to recovery that you are below where the economy was before the recession started. It would have to be an extremely shallow recession for it to happen otherwise.

Pretty amazing.

Krugman wrote of it in the Great Unraveling.

:hi:

Here's what you wrote last August,

"I fully expect the US market to crash (as in 30%+ drop) sometime during the next three months, and with the Asian markets having strong dependence on exports to the U.S., a week of really bad markets could potentially start in Asia, as their week begins and ends half a day before ours."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=114&topic_id=68834&mesg_id=68838

That and all your denial that there is any man made part of climate change make me wonder if you really are a Democrat.

I do think that there is a big long term problem with deficit spending, I think that we are out of the recession. There also was not a decade long recession. The word has a well defined meaning.

nice!

which is where we were headed had we not spent the money that added to our debt burden. Clearly we are not in a great situation but its better than the alternative.

Let's toast with a glass of victory gin?

Here's another thriving working class community?



http://www.solutionsforamerica.org/thrivingneigh/homelessness.html

On any given night in America, anywhere from 700,000 to 2 million people are homeless, according to estimates of the National Law Center on Homelessness and Poverty.

Why is that???? Beyond that job GROWTH means people will GET jobs not that they already have them. It's really baffling how you blindly and angrily lash out at any positive news.

part of the economic recovery. You can't just say it's lies without anything to back it up.

When you don't have facts to dispute positive trends, troll the net for pics of the homeless. Works every time.

Time to stop the obsession here about Recs. Kicking a thread means more in the long run.

China has agreed to stop floating their currency based on the U.S. dollar which gives them an advantage when trading. They've agreed, from negotiations with the Obama administration, to relax their control of it and have already started. No one expected to have an impact in the next 6 months, but it *could* and it would have an impact on how foreign countries invest in US labor and manufacturing. It appears this could already have an (unexpected) impact.

Haven't seen much discussion of this in the news, but it's there in print in a few places. MSM isn't covering it all of course, but it could have a dramatic impact on the U.S. economy. Here is a weak reference to it: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-20/yuan-forwards-strengthen-as-g-20-may-add-to-appreciation-calls.html

Notice that they say China won't adjust it's currency until this summer. The hidden news is that they will adjust it. The politics is following of course, and the lawmakers will be loudest just before the do it, timing their "announcements" accordingly.

China has agreed to begin the process of ending the practice of basing their currency on the U.S. dollar, which is a long held claim by the U.S. that the Chinese currency is undervalued (and it is).

They haven't done it yet, but are expected to "relax" their control of it a bit in the next 6 months. International traders apparently may be basing current decisions on this future policy change already, contributing to some of the indicators being seen in the referenced article.

By allowing the chinese currency to strengthen, they make the cost of items produced in China more expensive, relative to other countries, especially to ours.

That could, in turn, make it less attractive to purchase goods in China or to outsource manufacturing of US products to China.

By keeping the currency artificially weak, they keep their costs artificially low. So in the long run, strengthening their currency could help American (and other countries') competitiveness in the global market, thereby helping to stem the flood of jobs to overseas?

Am I close?

However there is no free lunch in economics.

Otherwise we could simply devalue our currency. Make dollar worth about a penny and our exports would be cheaper.

By devaluing their currency China is crushing their local economy. Citizens don't have purchasing power and price of goods is getting very expensive. China is bordering on runaway inflation. By raising the value of currency they make their exports more expensive thus improving the local economy.

Long term China needs to join the big boys and let their currency "float" it will flucate on the global market like every other currency does. Low debt, strong exports, low inflation = strong currency. High debt, poor exports vs imports, high inflation = weak currency.

China doesn't want to do that but them "easing" is a step in right direction. Longer term China must depeg their currency from dollar and allow it to float against all global currencies. They will resist that and likely it will take international effort to bring them to the table.

It seems to me that their reluctance is rooted in their formula for economic development and political stability.

Their economy has been very outwardly focused and they haven't focused on developing internal markets for their products. I also think that the reason for this is to prevent the kind of gaps between rich and poor that the ex-soviet union experienced with the fall of communism. This kind of disparity can lead to social unrest and instability and it seems like China's entire government policy is aimed at preventing that kind of instability.

That's why I agree with you 100% that China will resist allowing their currency to float until they are fully convinced that they can manage the resulting societal changes.

than the internal prosperity from a high Yuan.

However it would seem macro-economic forces are forcing their hand. When they revalue the Yuan higher it won't be because they want to or because they are some new friendlier, fairer China. It simply means they had no other choice.

Personally I wish the US would slap a tarriff on Chinese goods equal to 200% of the difference between the current artificially Yuan rate and the proper value (based on PPP). That would instantly eliminate any advantage China gets from manipulating their currency lower. Doubt that will happen though.

regarding the stagnet income growth, I fully expect that when the job market recovers we will see upward pressure on income as companies who have not exactly treated there employees well over the last few years based on the assumption that nobody is going anywhere in this economy will have to rethink their compensation and retention policies and will have to do it right quick.
(How's that for a run - on sentence?)

If we are 6 - 9 months away from a reliably improving job market, I think we are 9 - 12 months away from real income growth.

There is simply no arguing that point. I'm one of the more optimistic market followers, and expected us to have a fairly good economy in early spring, 2010. It's in promising condition, and I'm hopeful this translates to new jobs soon. It should.

A marketless recovery is NO recovery!

:rofl:

Nice one.

almost ruined economy. Good news! Something rare imo.

:shrug:

I feel the economic analysis provide at the KOS link is really terrible. But hell, I hope I'm fricken wrong!

I looked for links to the graphs it talks about. I looked for information that showed the information that was the basis of the graphs. The only thing it links to is other bloggers. In fact, at this point based on this post, all I see is one blogger repeating another blogger.

Where are the facts?

is flowing into the economy as we speak!

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/04/19/ap/business/main6409761.shtml
Recession Is Ending? Some Americans Don't Buy It
TWINSBURG, Ohio (AP) - The clerk at the candy shop does not want to cry. She is determinedly cheerful, a professional smiler, dressed head to toe in bright turquoise.

But standing next to a display of plastic-wrapped candles and teddy bears, her face crumples at the most basic of questions: Are you doing OK?

"I'm sorry," she says, wiping her eyes with a shirt sleeve, her voice a shaky whisper. "Because at the end of the month, there's nothing left. I don't know what to say. It's almost getting to the point where I don't know what we're going to do anymore."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/04/15/ap/business/main6400490.shtml
Illinois Sees Job Growth, But Higher Unemployment
The jobless rate in Illinois rose slightly to 11.5 percent in March and the state was ranked 9th nationally for its foreclosure rate in the first three months of the year, according to data released Thursday that economists say indicate the state's recovery is sluggish at best…

…The Illinois Department of Employment Security said the state added 3,000 jobs in March, the third consecutive month that Illinois saw job growth. However there still were 765,000 people out of work.

The 11.5 percent seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Illinois was a tenth of a percentage point higher than in February, but 2.3 percentage points higher than March 2009. The seasonally adjusted national unemployment rate for March was 9.7 percent.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/04/15/ap/business/main6398502.shtml
Rise In Jobless Claims Underscores Wobbly Recovery
WASHINGTON (AP) - A spike in unemployment claims Thursday underscored the bumpiness of the economic rebound: Consumers are spending more. Factories are making more. But layoffs have not tapered off as fast as expected.

So can the recovery gather much steam if 17 percent of working-age Americans remain jobless or underemployed?

Employers have begun to add jobs recently, including 162,000 in March. Yet much stronger job creation is needed to ease the current 9.7 percent unemployment rate. And if layoffs were to spike and job creation sputter, the recovery could fall back into a "double-dip" recession.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/04/16/earlyshow/living/ConsumerWatch/main6402807.shtml
Who's Hiring, and Where
Healthcare is among the strongest, if not the strongest American industries in terms of open positions. Staffing company Adecco's predicting shortages in registered nurses, pharmacists and paramedics. These are jobs that are needed all across the country, not just in certain areas, and this is one of the few industries that saw job growth from 2008 to 2009.

Finance is also a place we're seeing some job growth, thanks in part, ironically, to the financial crisis, which made jobs such as risk managers, auditors, and regulatory accountants all the more important. Finance is also an area that, while it's the first to shed jobs, is also usually the first to bring people back on. ..

…Also, engineering is an industry seeing job demand, particularly because engineering talent can be harder to find. Uncle Sam is beefing up grants in this area, and everything from computer engineering to chemical and petroleum engineering is expected to see a boost.
------------------------------------
As to the last news story, healthcare is doing layoffs and cutting back on hiring. Finance and engineering are very limited fields, requiring a very limited number of employees.

To all the doomsayers, I am sorry, but you are wrong. I live in one of the areas hardest hit by the real estate bubble in the entire country. I permit and enforce real estate development permits for a living. But for a few stimulus related government projects, the sector was dead in November and December 09. It has come back to life since. We have been seeing a steady and growing increase in permitting and construction starts for three months now.

I also happen to run a business on the side. Sales are up and the vendors I deal with largely report the same. The recession is over, economists agree, it is done. I do expect the size of the pending and ongoing recovery has been intentionally undersold and will surprise many analysts. Politics ain't bean bag or so the saying goes. The announcement will be delayed for maximum political effect.

That's a reagan invention to cover up the massive shift of wealth to the top that still continues unabated after 30 years. Either we have a recovery that includes long term living (buy a house, raise a family) wage jobs for the middle and working class workers that make up the majority of employees in this country or we have a recession/depression economy that continues to enrich the investor classes.

With 6 million long term unemployed and millions beginning to roll off of extended emergency benefits shortly those millions of good paying jobs with benefits better start appearing soon.


You can't shove all these people and millions more under a rug as collateral damage and claim a recovery. You can't follow thirty years of stagnant wages, change nothing to remedy the situation, and claim a recovery. You can't ship most of the good paying union blue collar manufacturing jobs overseas leaving millions of factory workers in minimum wage dead end jobs at walmart and target and claim a recovery. You can't predict years of high unemployment in the foreseeable future and claim a recovery. And most importantly you can't leave criminals in charge of wall street, un-indicted, unpunished, in control of government and claim a recovery.

Any recovery that doesn't include large numbers of living wage jobs with benefits and rising wages is a scam.