Sestak's numbers trending up - in statistical dead heat w/Toomey

There is a national interest in the PA Senate race - the issue being whether Specter's gamble in switching parties to be re-elected can carry him through the primary next Tuesday.

I've heard from a couple of people recently who said they have friends who plan to vote for Specter because they think he has a better chance of beating Toomey in the fall. I'm sending these numbers around with the request that you forward them to your email lists and share them with anyone you know who may not have been following this closely enough to know what the real situation is. Even if you are not a PA resident/voter, you may well know some Pa Democrats.


Specter's numbers have been on an uninterrupted downward slide for the past 6-8 months. In the most recent Rasmussen poll Toomey beats Specter by 12 points -- 50% to 38%. Toomey against Sestak is a statistical dead heat, 42% to 40%. In the same poll Specter's favorability rating is at an all time low -- 30%. Sestak's favorability rating is 56%.


So both the raw numbers and the trends over the past 6+ months -- with Sestak's numbers trending strongly up and Specter's going down -- show that Sestak would be a much stronger candidate against Toomey this fall. The National Journal found it "unlikely" that Specter could beat Toomey this fall and said that Sestak would be the stronger candidate in the general election. For me, the question begins and ends there. That Sestak is also a principled, intelligent guy and a true democrat just makes the call that much easier.


Sestak is also the highest ranking veteran ever to serve in Congress. He's a relative Washington outsider. He won his race for the House in a Republican district. True Dems should line up behind either candidate this fall. It's in that vast middle -- geographically and ideologically -- that Sestak will have a huge advantage this fall.


Our best shot to keep this seat, and keep Pat Toomey out of the Senate, is to vote for Joe Sestak on Tuesday. Please share this with your email lists, talk to your friends and neighbors, and make sure everybody gets out to vote on Tuesday.

packing.

One battle at a time. And we cannot get rid of Spectre without beating him next week (because no matter what, even to defeat Magic Bullet Boy, I could NEVER bring myself to vote for Toomey, or any puke. Never have, never will.).

If Sestak loses, I will sit out in November.


**edited to correct the omission that made it seem as if I would ever vote for that whack-job. And I do have issues, with anyone who supports any reich-wing position, whether they have a "D" or an "R" after their name.

on. You would help put the president of Club for Growth into power because of your hatred for Specter? Wow.

Could it be because he wasn't perceived by the voters there as the staunch & unwavering Democrat you think he is?

You are attempting to persuade me to cast my vote a certain way now because of what other people are telling pollsters they're going to do six months from now. That's not persuasive to me. These numbers you cite are chimerical.

You know what would be more persuasive? Exit poll numbers. Show me those, after Tuesday's election. Show me why people say they voted for who they did. If there's a large number who say they voted for Sestak because they felt he has a better shot at beating Toomey, then I'm more likely to be convinced.

On the issues:
http://garnetdonkey.com/2009/05/27/specter-v-sestak-by-the-numbers/