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(R)asmussen: Paul 59% - Conway 34%

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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:20 AM
Original message
(R)asmussen: Paul 59% - Conway 34%
Election 2010: Kentucky Senate
Kentucky Senate: Paul 59%, Conway 34%

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Rand Paul, riding the momentum of his big Republican Primary win on Tuesday, now posts a 25-point lead over Democrat Jack Conway in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race, but there’s a lot of campaigning to go.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Kentucky, taken Wednesday night, shows Paul earning 59% of the vote, while Conway picks up 34% support. Four percent (4%) percent prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

Paul consistently led Conway prior to winning the Republican primary, but had never earned more than 50% support. Conway has been stuck in the 30s since the first of the year. Last month, Paul posted a 47% to 38% lead over the Democrat.

Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of maverick GOP Congressman Ron Paul, defeated Trey Grayson, Kentucky’s secretary of state, by a 59% to 35% margin in Tuesday’s Republican Primary. Conway, the state’s attorney general, on the other hand, just barely edged Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo 44% to 43% on Tuesday to capture the Democratic Senate nomination.

<snip>


Link to (R)asmussen Reports article
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:24 AM
Response to Original message
1. Ouch!. Hopefully Paul figures out a way to say something stupid
shouldn't be too hard for him.
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Scotty is working over time on this one
and the poll was taken before Paul stuck his foot in his mouth on Rachel's show last night.
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joeybee12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:24 AM
Response to Original message
2. Time to start the black people shouldn't be allowed in private busineses commercials..nt/
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Wickerman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
4. so, since Rasmussen is typically off by about 12 points... n/t
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:28 AM
Response to Original message
5. Strikes me as false
Typical Rasmussen nonsense. They don't even poll real people.
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Nicholas D Wolfwood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #5
22. Me too. Other polls seem to be showing a single digit margin.
This PPP May 1-2 poll suggests it was a one point difference. I can't imagine that's changed this drastically after the primaries. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ky_2010_sen_ppp_512.php
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Nuclear Unicorn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:28 AM
Response to Original message
6. Were they polling Paul's country club?
just askin'
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dmallind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:30 AM
Response to Original message
7. I'm not going into denial. It's KY and it's early. Things can change. NT
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LostInAnomie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:30 AM
Response to Original message
8. Rasmussen's "likely voters" means older whites.
That's Rand's niche.
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BolivarianHero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:31 AM
Response to Original message
9. He's a bigot...
Perfect fit for White evangelicals that make up most of KY.
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Kalyke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 11:28 AM
Response to Reply #9
23. You're correct that most of the state is white.
However, evangelical they're not.

In 2000, The Association of Religion Data Archives reported that of Kentucky's 4,041,769 residents:

  • 33.68% were members of evangelical Protestant churches
    Southern Baptist Convention (979,994 members, 24.25%)
    Independent Christian Churches/Churches of Christ (106,638 members, 2.64%)
    Church of Christ (58,602 members, 1.45%)
    10.05% were Roman Catholics
  • 8.77% belonged to mainline Protestant churches
    United Methodist Church (208,720 members, 5.16%)
    Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) (67,611 members, 1.67%)
    0.05% were Orthodox Christians
    0.88% were affiliated with other theologies
  • 46.57% were not affiliated with any church.


  • Today Kentucky is home to several seminaries. Southern Baptist Theological Seminary in Louisville is the principal seminary for the Southern Baptist Convention. Louisville is also the home of the Louisville Presbyterian Theological Seminary. Lexington has two seminaries, Lexington Theological Seminary, and the Baptist Seminary of Kentucky. Asbury Theological Seminary is located in nearby Wilmore. In addition to seminaries, there are several colleges affiliated with denominations. Transylvania in Lexington is affiliated with the Disciples of Christ. Pikeville College in Pikeville, Kentucky is affiliated with the Presbyterian Church. In Louisville, Bellarmine and Spalding are affiliated with the Roman Catholic Church. In Owensboro, Kentucky, Kentucky Wesleyan College is associated with the Methodist Church and Brescia University is associated with the Roman Catholic Church. Wilmore is home to Asbury College (a separate institution from the seminary), which is associated with the Christian College Consortium. The University of the Cumberlands, located in Williamsburg, Campbellsville University in Campbellsville, Georgetown College in Georgetown and Mid-Continent University in Mayfield all have connections with the Southern Baptist Convention. Louisville is also home to the headquarters of the Presbyterian Church (USA) and their printing press. Louisville is also home to a sizable Muslim and Jewish population.
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DarthDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:35 AM
Response to Original message
10. PLEASE Stop Posting Spasmussen "Polls"

They are nothing more than attempts to drive the narrative in favor of the Goopers. They are not news, they are not polls, and they are not scientific. They are worthless and wholly without meaning.
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:40 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. The networks will show the results
They are news, they drive the narrative, and forewarned is forearmed.
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sinkingfeeling Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:40 AM
Response to Original message
12. Didn't the top 2 Democrats bring in hundreds of more votes than Paul got? Yes! Found it.
Edited on Thu May-20-10 10:42 AM by sinkingfeeling
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/15261/25675/en/summary.html

Total Democrats voting in primary: 520,412
Total Republicans voting: 351,931
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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:40 AM
Response to Original message
13. This is a temporay boost from all the media coverage nt.
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Lasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:48 AM
Response to Original message
14. Breaking: Republican Cheerleading Firm Rasmussen Reports Jumps Shark.
He was probably sucking in a few gullible people before he got so obvious about it.
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. I agree with the poster above. It's a bump from the media attention
There will be a corresponding drop.

On top of that, his racism showing will harm him as well.
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Lasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:54 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. Uh huh. Wait and see how much of a bump the other polls give him.
Not twenty points overnight, I'll wager.
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Aramchek Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:52 AM
Response to Original message
16. this poll was taken before Rand opened his mouth
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alfredo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 10:54 AM
Response to Original message
18. Rasmussen's bias, a visual representation
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Winterblues Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 11:11 AM
Response to Original message
19. In a State where Registered Democrats outnumber Registered Republicans three to two.
I just don't buy it...I don't believe that many "Democrats" could be that stupid. I know racism is a huge factor but still, I just can not believe there can really be that many stupid people there.
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stray cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 11:12 AM
Response to Original message
20. States get to choose their representatives which screws up DU attempts at purity
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Oregone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 11:16 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. huh?
Whats that have to do with anything?
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DainBramaged Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-20-10 11:55 AM
Response to Original message
24. (R)asmussen:bullshit tool of the RNC
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