http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=stream2&hpt=T2

http://globalwarming.house.gov/spillcam/

Can't see anything much now. Earlier it was easy to see the riser and plumes.

or there has been some disturbance of the ocean bottom and the sediment has been stirred up causing the view to be murky.

You know, the one where the security is convinced that everything is okay in the vault because they hooked up a loop of old video to the monitors and disconnected the live feed?

Nothing here, nothing at all. http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/homepage/STAGING/local_assets/bp_homepage/html/rov_stream.html

there have been many complaints of various kinds about bp's video service. Crashing etc.

Surprised?

Post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x310213

Now:

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/homepage/STAGING/local_assets/bp_homepage/html/rov_stream.html

yikes now it is moving again, is it leaving?

Now no light.

Something is not so good with conditions down there.

The gas bubbling as described in that thread Indiana Green posted (Tactical)
saw this earlier.

http://monkeyfister.blogspot.com/2010/05/major-change-down-below.html

This is the blog Indiana Green's post was watching.

Can anyone explain the science involving the gas bubbles?

Regular updates will be tacked on to the bottom of this post through the day.

UPDATE 5:45pm CDT: A brand new MAJOR eruption is happening. tune into the SpillCam at BP.com . It's black, all you can see is a cable. It started with yet another GUSH plume/tornado.

Oh, dear-- now, we can see that that is a LOT of oil-- and a BLIZZARD of Hydrates..


UPDATE 6:03pm CDT: The current eruption is way, way worse than the several that occured earlier. I think this might be a "Main Event" situation.

UPDATE 6:45pm CDT: An hour after the start of this most recent eruption, and it is still just a wall of oil, methane crystals, and gack.

WAY, WAAAY worse than the first event.
*** Any insights? What about this casing wall and its importance?
----------------------------------

I've been watching the live Spillcam, and discussing it with folks, here. about 5pm last night, we all started taking note of gas bubbling out of the seabed floor. It started earlier than that, actually-- see pic a few posts down. About 1am this morning, the eruptions began to increase in spew volume. At about 8am, CDT, as I watched, things started changing rapidly. Where the water around the two major gush points used to be very clear, it is now super turbid, and detritus is flying everywhere in a chaotic manner. seabed venting is obvious to see when ROV cameras pan around.

Yet to be confirmed rumors are that the casing wall has finally worn through, about 300 feet below seabed, at an annulus (coupling), and the gas and oil are now finding a new way out to the seabed.

Not good news, as it will make the Top-Kill/Junk Shot nearly ineffectual... At the least, it means that more pressure and mud/cement is going to be required.

We'll see.

See for yourself, here: via BP Live Spillcam

Screengrab of the early Morning Chaos Event:

from Monkeyfister

I don't think that's supposed to be there.

"kink" in the riser pipe that slowed to flow, or would it be from where the riser pipe goes into the seabed? Or do we know?

UPDATE: The riser pipe used to be pretty clean in it's top. Now, it is piled over with sediment.

Something had happened to the dispersant mechanism, too. Pipes and connectors got knocked loose, liquid was pouring out of the machine, and we watched the ROV repair the leak. Seabed seems to have sunk rapidly. Riser end is now in a big crater.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2010/05/bp-siphoning-5000-barrels-a-day-from-spill-spokesman-says.html

Or this is one of the minor leaks away from the gas bubble turmoil that blocked the other camera.

http://monkeyfister.blogspot.com/2010/05/major-change-down-below.html

UPDATE 5:45pm CDT: A brand new MAJOR eruption is happening. tune into the SpillCam at BP.com . It's black, all you can see is a cable. It started with yet another GUSH plume/tornado.

Oh, dear-- now, we can see that that is a LOT of oil-- and a BLIZZARD of Hydrates..


UPDATE 6:03pm CDT: The current eruption is way, way worse than the several that occured earlier. I think this might be a "Main Event" situation.

UPDATE 6:45pm CDT: An hour after the start of this most recent eruption, and it is still just a wall of oil, methane crystals, and gack.

WAY, WAAAY worse than the first event.

UPDATE 7:35pmCDT: Live feed of recent blowout froze-up, requiring a reload of page. All of a sudden-- no more black chaos-- just the current clear-water gusher view. I suspect loop tape, but I have the screen grabs from the entire day, below.


Loop tape? It's certainly odd, given what looks like oil on the lens from their earlier screen grabs, then a clear lens now.

What is an oil head?

===============
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=362055

Something has happened - Blowout at BP oil head?

This was from about 15 minutes ago when I saw the backlit edge of huge plume... This looks more on the scale of an old texas oil rig gusher now than the leak we had seen before...

Within a few minutes the plume has increased in size and completely blocked out the light and all you could see what black.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=362055


Scroll down to see screen grabs of the ROV fixing the pipe

==================== comment

Last night, it appeared that their temporary "siphon pipe" was blown out of the well at around 9 pm. I should have it recorded on my computer, and will try to edit the particular frames where it shows up... I came back in from getting the horse, etc in the barn, and the pipe was lying on the seabed, with a lot of apparent damage.

After that, the amount of oil visibly spewing from the wellhead was much larger.

I think they have major problems down there right now, and it's getting worse.

summerthyme

======================

It was a long eel-like creature moving across the field of view and when it got to the plume it just got pulled upward along with it.

Only one of uncountable casualties.

:cry:

I wonder what real information they will share with us.

according to the blogger who snagged it. They did not want to show that apparently.

He said it appeared after an explosion. That sounds like the gas bubble thing that was seen by
DU members on the thread Indiana Green posted.

http://alfin2100.blogspot.com/2010/05/prepping-bop-for-top-kill-estimating.html

BP has replaced a key control module in the BOP above the Macondo well as it prepares for a top kill that could come as early as Sunday .

BP re-inserted a “yellow pod", one of two in the BOP that will control the choke and kill valves needed to kill the well, a source told UpstreamOnline.

Suttles said BP had two more pressure measurements to take before it could decide definitively to move forward with the top kill option.

In a top kill, BP will pump heavy-weight mud at a high enough pressure to push the flow of oil back down the Macondo wellbore.

The mud will be pumped through a pair of three-inch choke and kill valves located on the lower portion of the crippled BOP.

The heavy mix will then be followed with cement, which would seal the well for good.

BP executive Kent Wells said Sunday that ROVs are preparing pipes and hoses around the well to pump up to 40 barrels per minute of mud into the well.

All of the heavy equipment needed for a top kill “has been mobilised or is on scene”, Suttles said Wednesday, including manifolds, which were dropped to the sea floor late last week.

The Department of Energy has allowed BP to use some of its cutting-edge imaging technology and the latest scans show that there are no obstructions in the wellbore that would preclude a top kill, Suttles said.

Graphics generated by BP show that the Q4000 semi-submersible supply vessel, which is currently operated by Houston-based Helix Energy Solutions, will be used in the top kill operations.

BP representatives said they were unsure if the top kill would be carried out by Helix’s Well Ops division, which offers subsea well intervention services.

It is understood BP's preference for staunching the well flow is to carry out a top kill, but it has other options on the table in the event it does not work.

The next option would likely be a junk shot.

A junk shot entails pumping chunks of rubber, shredded tyres, frac balls and other materials, along with heavy mud, directly into the BOP, Suttles said.

The reason BP likely will start with a top kill over a junk shot is that a failed junk shot could cut off other well control options, he said. _Upstream

=======
=======


Cogdell said estimates as high as 100,000 barrels of oil a day from some scientists were unrealistic based on production rates at deep water wells in the vicinity, which range from 15,000 to 30,000 barrels per day.

Steve Wereley, a professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University who was thrust into the limelight last week after analyzing a 30-second video clip of the leaking pipe for National Public Radio, said he would likely cut in half his latest estimate of 100,000 barrels of oil a day after viewing a live video feed that was released on Thursday. _Rigzone


The mainstream media is also reporting that so-called exerts are saying the amount of oil being released is far more than the 5,000 barrels thought to be leaking in the ocean on a daily basis by BP. Experts? How is anyone an expert in oil leaking from the ocean floor at about a mile below the surface? There is no such thing as an expert in this...

...One of the major elements that are going to make these so-called researchers and scientists look stupid and ignorant is the fact that about half of what is leaking into the ocean is natural gas. They are basing their inflated numbers on all the liquid being oil, which totally makes the flow far higher than it really is.

Other things not being taken into consideration, are these, according to BP in a statement: "For instance, while the original riser was 19.5 inches in diameter prior to the Deepwater Horizon accident, damage sustained during the accident distorted the diameter at the end of the pipe by about 30 percent. In addition, a drill pipe currently trapped inside the riser has reduced the flow area by an additional 10 percent." _DrippingOil


Part of the problem remains in the complexity of the flow of an expanding gas in oil, coming out into an unconfined (apart from the sea pressure) space. Estimates of the flow have ranged up to 100,000 bd. At the moment the evaluation is relying largely on either visual evaluations, or relatively crude analysis, albeit with sophisticated systems, based on estimated behaviors of the flow volumes. Whether the flow has, as BP have stated, been significantly reduced by the RIT tap, or whether the current tap has had little significant effect is largely, at present left up to individual judgment without measurements of the actual flows. _BitToothEnergy


If you visually compare the pre-siphon flow to the post-siphon flow, you will be in as good a position as anyone (except the insiders with access to real time data) to judge the flow rates -- knowing how much is coming out of the surface end of the siphon tube.

Reports of 3 today or more.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8401866

Wonder if it is connected?

:scared:

They have so many variable to deal with..

Here is a HUFFPO rundown:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-l-cavnar/top-kill-is-bps-next-step_b_580148.html

Comments about pressure:

Dolfijn 24 hours ago (10:22 AM)
0 Fans
If you are still interested in what caused the leak, have a look at this:
16 ppg drilling mud gives, at 23,000 ft, a reservoir pressure of 19,000 psi. Now let's assume that the Dril-Quip wellhead is rated 20,000 psi WP, this gives the impression that all is still fine, however ..... the last casing string installed was at wellhead 9-7/8" 62.8 ppf Q-125 which can withstand a collapse pressure of 11,790 psi at the very best. When the top of the well, at 5,000 ft, was displaced to seawater, giving only 2,200 psi hydrostatic pressure at this depth, and assuming leaking cement giving 19,000 psi gas pressure on the outside at 5,000 ft, a differential pressure of 19,000 - 2,200 = 16,800 psi was/could have been created, resulting in casing collapse! Poor engineering => BP 100% responsible!
Permalink
photo

HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Robert L. Cavnar 12 minutes ago (9:42 AM)
2 Fans
Yes, I agree with your numbers and conclusions. The BOP stack is rated at 15,000, and I've heard the casinghead was the same. It is clear that, at a minimum, the hanger packoff failed. If the hanger was not locked, which, to save money some operators don't do, the hanger and packoff could have pushed up into the shear rams. If the casing collapsed, who knows what is in the BOP. Many are focused on the cement plugs and whether one was run at 8,367 where the tubing was last reported hanging. I believe that none of those issues matter. I believe it was a backside blowout.
Permalink

A few tests...

A little oil...


etc...

hard to fathom what this is doing to our ocean and everything connected to it

This just happened. Something is up.

TIA

I can't link to the exact location, url fills half this page.

Flow rate looks a lot like yesterday.


Not good... but not any worse than before.

http://geology.com/news/2010/bp-top-kill-attempt-to-seal-the-gulf-well.shtml?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Geologycom+%28Geology.com%29&utm_content=Twitter

This video explains the next method that BP is putting in place to seal the leaking Gulf of Mexico oil well that has now been leaking for over a month.

One shot to get the kill mud in there against tremendous pressure.

Guess what? No guarentees it won't blow the BOP to pieces... and then only 50% chance that the relief well will work.


http://news.slashdot.org/story/10/05/23/2014202/BP-Prepares-Complex-Top-Kill-Bid-To-Plug-Well?from=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Slashdot%2Fslashdot+%28Slashdot%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

I am hopelessly confused on this...

Sorry, I meant this to be a general reply. If you go to the comments area at that site you can follow the history there. I can't c/p the link. It's much too long to put in a post.


so Its 11:40 out here... at around 11:00pm i turned on the spill cam from cnn and all that was visible was murky brown water. I went to the BP site and also streamed the video... the BP site is not showing the same footage as CNN after over 10 minutes of watching... there were no similarities in the video. It could be a time lag, but it seems more like someone is hiding something. Scary... The CNN footage looked like all hell had broken loose... The BP stream had a calm distant view of the spill. At this time nothing is visible in the cnn video. I don't think its facing the pipe anymore.
Today, 1:42:02 AM
– Flag – Like – Reply – Delete – Edit – Moderate
djartklom
It's starting to look more and more like our version of Chernobyl: a big, smoking toxic hole that requires a Herculean effort to subdue.
Today, 2:44:40 AM
– Flag – Like – Reply – Delete – Edit – Moderate
oyster
Good work, MF. But this is all... quite troubling.
Today, 3:25:10 AM
–--

Robotic arm disengaged itself, rotated 90 degrees to the right, rotated the hand from vertical to horizontal, then the camera zoomed in really close to the large object that had been in the foreground for hours.

Currently it's still zoomed in, but looking at the bottom of the object.

Edit: It doesn't look as if there is as much oil escaping, but that's just because of the zoom. I was watching as it made the zoom, and the large plume of oil was still gushing as the picture pushed in.

place, that I've not seen before. I'm watching at http://bit.ly/oilcam

I have no clue about this device, just that I saw the screen go dark Sat. (I think), there's been a lot of debris spewing and the spewing has seemed to increase yesterday and today.:shrug: Is this device being held in place for the top kill, or to take measurements prior to the attempt?? I wish I knew, but I don't.