BP's new plan risks worsening oil spill

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-oil-spill-20100531,0,907235.story

A maneuver that includes severing a leaking pipe from the well may increase the flow as much as 20%. Officials also say there is no immediate remedy to plug the well until August.


By Margot Roosevelt and Tina Susman, Los Angeles Times

May 31, 2010


Reporting from Los Angeles and New Orleans —
BP's plan to sever a leaking pipe as part of an effort to cap its runaway well in the Gulf of Mexico could increase flow by as much as 20%, and the oil giant has no remedy to stop up the well until August, Obama administration and company officials said Sunday.

The risky maneuver, part of an attempt to contain the gusher and divert the oil through a pipe to the surface, could begin Monday or Tuesday.

Administration and BP officials on Sunday sought to shift attention from last week's failed attempt to choke the well by focusing on expectations that a new cap could divert much of the leaking oil from the fragile ecosystem of the gulf. (MORE)

are ready.

It's so fucked up, and it's bound to get even more so -- I'm of the mind that we need to take whatever opportunity that comes along that has a chance of helping.

The alternative is to sit on our hands for the next 2 months while an additional 40,000,000 gallons of oil leak into the gulf.

I'm expecting a better result this time - assuming they can cleanly cut the riser. Did you know there is a small chance they could dislodge the stuck drill pipe and close the shears in the bop - sealing off the well?

leading to many conversions to some religion or another!

according to Hayward's math - 60% chance that Top Kill will work. It's another palliative?

no one really knows whats going on, one hand says and points one way and the other has no clue. BP backed obama thru millions of contributions during his campaign................

And there are over 100,000 BP employees.

:hi:

but feel they have to say something, to sound as though they're not completely in the dark.

Although they most likely are.

i know this is so awful and not enough people are involved. we need to take action, what the heck is going on with this country????????

whatever's needed. Money, equipment, expertise to shut this thing down. Then send the bill to BP.

(Welcome to DU staceysdn! :bounce: :toast: :bounce:)

seriously, how does everyone think that the gulf will look like by then??? this is an ecological freakin emergency!!! i tried to volunteer to go down there but i was told that they need experienced people there...well ok, that's fine; but i think that they should take all the help that we can give...i understand that there are risks; i am willing to take them.

welcome to DU. When you figure out what is wrong with the country, let me know. I think the rest of us are as much in the dark as you are.

"...the rest of us are as much in the dark as you are."

What's wrong with this country is government of, by and for the corporations.

It doesn't explain the brainwashed masses.

but how do we make things better??? i honestly am at a loss; if anyone has ideas...please...let me know. I am starting to feel extremely disheartened..........

Stop the empire building by military. Bring the troops back.

Get a government working on infrastructure and a sustainable agricultural and energy base. Train people in the use, rather than the misuse of water. That's a start.

for all we know this is a turning point that gets the country back on track.

that this disaster should push people into getting back on track......the gov't is not doing it..... we all should

agree

The collapsed riser, and the drill pipe that's inside (yes, it's not just a hollow pipe, it's got another pipe inside) represent significant restrictions to the well gushing at full strength.

Before they can fit the Lower Marine Riser Package (LMRP) to the top of the BOP, they need to cleanly saw off the riser, leaving a uniform end to which to mount the LMRP.

Once the riser is off, the thing will spew at full force.

Hopefully, it won't be too many hours later that the LMRP will be on, if things go well.

The other option, placing another BOP on the existing one, also needs the removal of the collapsed riser.

Hope this works, it'll be four days or longer before we know.

:patriot:

with a few friends that are engineers.......they say that this is all crap and only being put out there to appease public concern; i am not saying that i agree or even know the first thing about engineering; but this raises a red flag with me.

was just on a cruise down there while all this was happening.... he loved how beautiful things were; i hope that there is something that is done so that it stays that way......

so regardless they had to act fairly soon I guess. I'm just concerned that they don't make it worse or limit what can be done later.

And I'm not too confident in the integrity of the BOP, the whole riser stack looked like hell during and after the Top Kill maneuver.

:scared:

he paints a very realistic picture of doom and just about everything going wrong!

:scared: :scared:

but it's all pointing that way........

but true

that has exactly that concern in mind...


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8453598

I read his stuff as well and he paints a scary picture. So far he is quite accurate. A bit of a teabagger or whatever they are at godlike but he knows his stuff.

This fellow SHR is no optimist but he brings up the worst case scenario. I don't mean to fear monger and will add this comes from a conspiracty oriented website. My concern is that they are acting under so much pressure, literal and figurative, and so much is at stake, a recipe for bad decisions?

=========== regarding the wide open gusher after the cut

The next move is to saw the top of the bop off...actually the top of the LMRP behind the point we have all seen the riser bent/kinked over the last few days blasting out whatever flow of fluid there was at the time...mud...oil and gas...who the hell can really tell at any one time..,..even the people who are supposed to be in charge don't even know what is going on....typical..

What they will do is use a diamond wire saw to cut off the top where that bent over pipe is connected...by now you should be able to figure what will immediately happen...all the kinked pipe restrictions to that massive pressure behind it?...they will be gone...the well will virtually be a wide open gusher at that point....we can ponder the finer details within the replies to this, but simply and esentially?...that is what will happen...they will saw off most of everything that is holding this well back from gushing to it's full potential...

This of course is meant to be a very temporary condition...Oh we will move in Grommet fixor right away and we will live happily ever after...YAY!...just like cofferdam-out house.. top hat... top kill... junk shot...we were all supposed to live happily ever after once those most awesome contraptions were deployed too...didn't work out that way did it..

The difference with those failed fixes?....they didn't unleash or even increase the full fury of this well...however...this newest one will...they are running out of non-destructive cures...and in fact...have run out...

By now you can probably see where I am going...what will happen if this next "Plan"....what are we on now?....plan-J?....lost track...but, what will happen if and when this next plan fails? what will we be left with?....we will be left with a well that is completely blown out...gushing to near or at it's full potential which BP themselves estimated to be 162,000 BARRELS...Not "gallons", but barrels per day...that is 3 Exxon valdez' a week...it is a worst case scenario and do you trust BP engineering to be right about that HUGE number?....it could easily be much worse and even THEY will tell you that is an estimate....IMO it would likely be worse...maybe 200,000 barrels a day flooding out with nothing that can stop it...and then?...the relief wells which are the best chance to kill this well becomes MORE DIFFICULT to make work...what if takes 3 then?...we will be sucking 5x the oil for another 90 days from the time they find that out....and that is something we cannot live with...you think it is bad now???? LOL!!!!....I don't like to laugh at this, but what we have now?...it WOULD be a joke compared to a 4 or 5 fold increase...and that is a very real and reasonable potential compared to what we are getting slammed in the face with now....and right now?...it's pretty fuckin bad....

enough!!
:wtf::argh:

has no plan........in my opinion they have no clue and should be outta there

to understand?? Why the fuck is our government dicking around with them?? BP has no interests our of spending as little as possible and controlling the message. THEY ARE DONE! Let's get some REAL experts on this for a change-ones WITHOUT conflict of interest issues!

Screw BP, bring in the Scientists, for that matter, there are other oil companies with far better records.
But BP should be way, way past calling the shots. Even if they remain involved, it should be in advisory capacity.

9/11 and Katrina.

The pattern is clear for all that want to see..two.. SUPPOSEDLY ..polar opposite adminstrations following the same fucking pattern!

of foreign offers of expertise and equipment and finally get the job done??