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The good news is that we got HCR passed early this year (and the sky hasn't fallen....yet), the polls are creaking upwards for Dems, and some Dems whom might have faced some tough challengers (Boxer, Feingold, Gillebrand) won't be. On the down side, Reid ain't looking good and we have some retirements in difficult-to-win districts that could hurt us. My overall predictions are:
1. The "Tea Party" movement will (eventually) fizzle out because, frankly, I don't see how they will be able to maintain their anger and discontent for a long term without finding some kind of outlet for it (other than simply protesting). Its members will either enter the political process- in which case they will be primarying REPUBLICANS and forcing them to spend time and dwindling supplies of money defending "safe" seats" and/or winning easy nominations- or becoming their own "Party" (which will also damage Republicans and will NOT carry any vast swaths of support among the electorate-not enough to win elections). I am, however, personally more worried about its members becoming violent- in which case they drastically marginalize themselves and drive away *sensible* Republicans. They would also become too toxic to continue to support and/or pander to (unfortunately, not without the rest of us incurring some casualties).
2. We will lose some seats in the Senate and House but not enough for the Republicans to assume control. It will NOT be 1994 redux IMHO. It just doesn't seem possible, particularly right now (a few months ago I was less optimistic). Obama and the Democrats in Congress might be slightly more hampered than they are now but that will just help set the stage for 2012 where we can rebound again and win back some more seats (if the Dems play it right).
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