"The Republicans' 2012 problem"

The Republicans' 2012 problem
November 2010 is looking awfully good for the GOP. But November 2012? Not so much
BY ED KILGORE

Talk to most Democratic activists, and they'll concede that a Republican takeover of the House this fall is entirely possible. Some will even contemplate the nightmare scenario of losing the Senate, though that remains arithmetically improbable. But they’ll cheer right up when talk moves to 2012.

The reasons for this midrange optimism are many. Though President Obama's approval ratings are nowhere near the post-inaugural peak they reached early last year, he remains the most popular figure in national politics. There’s also the possibility that the economy will have improved enough by 2012 to sweeten the country’s mood.

More to the point, smart Democrats understand that one of their chief liabilities right now figures to be an asset in 2012: the shape of the electorate. Turnout in midterm elections invariably skews toward older and whiter voters. Yet Obama’s 2008 performance varied inversely with age categories and also depended on a historic ethnic-minority turnout that isn’t about to be repeated in a midterm election. Add in the ripe targets, particularly in the House, created by two straight boffo Democratic cycles, and it should have been clear the very day after the 2008 elections that Democrats were cruising for a bruising in 2010 — even before the economy sank to its ultimate depths and well before the first Tea Party protest.

The 2012 electorate, by contrast, should look more like that of 2008. Not content with their midterm advantage, Republicans have done a lot to brand themselves as the party of angry old white people: the GOP’s conspicuous identification with the Tea Party movement, and the campaign to mobilize Medicare beneficiaries against healthcare reform are two examples. This will build a demographic trap for the GOP future, particularly since the radically conservative mood of the Republican base has eliminated any strategic flexibility to reach out to younger and darker (or female) voters.

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http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/feature/2010/04/18/gop_2012_problem_kilgore/index.html